São Paulo – The Sultanate of Oman is optimistic about the possibility of attracting more Brazilian investment, after the success of the project of the mining company Vale at the Port of Sohar and the purchase offer recently made by BRF for 40% of its distributor in the country, Al Khan Foods. This Monday (12nd), representatives from Omani agencies and companies presented business opportunities in the Brazil-Oman Economic Forum, held today at the Grand Hyatt hotel, in São Paulo.

“I think [this event] is precisely the outcome of the first trip of a [Brazilian] authority to the Sultanate of Oman, when I was there last year. It has led to this trade and industry forum, where Omani and Brazilian representatives have met to learn how to invest in Oman, and how Omani businessmen can invest here in Brazil”, said Brazilian vice president, Michel Temer, who took part in the conference.

According to the Omani ambassador in Brasília, Khalid Al Jaradi, the government of his country has a long-term strategy to diversify the economy, since the oil and gas industry accounts for 50% of activity. The areas the Omanis plan on developing include the food industry. They believe they can make Brazilian companies interested in carrying out something similar to what Vale did in the sultanate, in the iron ore business.

The mining company has a pelletizing plant, a seaport and a distribution centre in Oman’s Sohar port area. The place is considered strategic by the company to answer to the Middle Eastern and Indian markets, and there was an investment of US$ 2 billion there. “It is a very favourable environment to foreign investment,” said the External Affairs head of Vale, Marcio Senne.

Interested in the potential presented by the Brazilian grain exports, the director of Port of Rotterdam International (PoRint), which runs the Sohar Port and Freezone, said there are plans of setting up a food distribution hub at the facility. The representative of PoRint in São Paulo, Peter Lugthart, said they are trying to attract more companies from Brazil, besides Vale. “In our opinion, there is space to set up a grain terminal”, he said.

Other activities Oman wishes to develop are steelworks, fishing and aquaculture, agriculture, information and communication technologies, chemistry and petrochemistry, tourism, besides expanding its infrastructure.

“The policy of attracting investments to Oman is bearing great results”, said the Arab Brazilian Chamber of Commerce’s president, Marcelo Sallum. “It is a wonderful country, tourism-wise”, added the CEO of the organization, MIchel Alaby. Both visited the Gulf nation alongside Temer, in 2013. The Arab Brazilian Chamber helped the Omani embassy hold the forum this Monday.

These country believes these areas can offer “competitive advantages”, either in the way of raw material and services availability or for its geographic location, halfway to large consumer markets.

“Our goal is to build partnerships with Brazilian companies,” said the chairman of the Duqm Special Economic Zone Authority and head of the Omani delegation, Yahya Said Abdullah Al Jabri. “We have reasons to hold similar activities (the forum) in the future,” he said. Approximately 160 people were in attendance.

Presentations were given on the ports and free zones of Duqm, Sohar and Salalah. Apart from their infrastructure and location, these facilities offer tax exemption, among other advantages. In Duqm, for instance, the grace period for taxes is 30 years.

Two-way street

Temer stated that Brazil is also interested in being targeted by investment from Oman, and said his country should see an infrastructure sector investment of US$ 150 billion in the next five years. “Bring your companies to invest and to make money,” he said.

One of the Omani companies at the forum invests overseas. The Oman Oil Company is a sort of sovereign fund from the Arab country that operates in energy and related activities. In South America, the company has business interests in Chile. “Brazil is one of the places we look to. If we find anything that fits our portfolio, we will look into it,” said the vice president for Emerging Business vice-president, Hilal Al Kharusi.

To Marcelo Sallum, Temer’s visit to the sultanate in 2013 “gave a positive signal of the [Brazilian government’s] interest in establishing closer ties” with Oman. “And the fact that the vice president has attended this forum was important, since it gave credibility, not to mention that we had the opportunity to see new projects,” he said. The Duqm project, for instance, is new.

Because developing its infrastructure is a priority for the Omani government, Sallum added that construction works in the Arab country could translate into “big opportunities for Brazilian companies.”

Double taxation

One obstacle to the development of closer ties with Oman, and to the internationalization of Brazilian enterprises in general, was discussed by senator Ricardo Ferraço (from the Espírito Santo chapter of party PMDB), chairman of the Senate’s External Relations and National Defence Commission. According to him, the Brazilian legislation regards the sultanate as a “location with more favourable taxation” and a “more favourable tax regime,” i.e. a fiscal haven, which prevents Brazil from negotiating an agreement for preventing double taxation in mutual investment.

“We must review this petty position, this Jurassic bureaucracy,” the senator criticized. He promised to “stress” the issue at the commission he presides, i.e., to place it on the agenda and discuss potential modifications.

Temer asserted that the topic “is being continuously examined by government.” “On several occasions, whenever I take these trips [abroad], I hear these pleas [for anti-double taxation agreements],” he said. “The government has not closed the doors on the matter, the government is examining it in proper fashion, so as not to cause problems for the Federal Revenue here in Brazil, and the Revenue in the other country at hand,” he added.

*Translated by Rodrigo Mendonça & Gabriel Pomerancblum

São Paulo – Muslims travelling to Brazil for the FIFA World Cup will have an additional welcome treat, apart from the country’s warm hospitality. The Federation of Muslim Associations in Brazil (Fambras) has devised a guide for them, plus a mobile application and a landline to help them with directions and tips on how to observe the rules of their religion during the tournament.

According to information released by Fambras and the Brazilian Ministry of Tourism, out of 32 national teams playing the World Cup, six are from countries where Islam is significantly present. They are Algeria, Bosnia, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria and Iran. “In some of these countries, like Iran, football is a national passion, similar to Brazil,” says Fambras vice president Ali Zoghbi. In addition to fans from these countries, people from Muslim countries which are not playing the Cup should also attend.

The guide, is written in English and titled Guide Muslim Fan – Salam Brazil – World Cup 2014, is already available for download on the association’s website. There will be a print version as well. The guide is succinct and practical. It contains information on Islamism in Brazil, the prayer hours in the time zones of each host city, basic information on the host cities, their mosques, the matches they will host, the consulates and embassies from Muslim countries and the history of the World Cups.

The app for smartphones will bring the same information as the guide alongside other tools, such as a compass to show fans where Mecca is located, since they need to pray facing the city. There will be a 12-hour-a-day phone service available on 0800 718 6245, during the days of the World Cup, from 8am to 8pm, in English, Arabic, Spanish and French. For the remainder of the day, an answering machine is programmed, and will be checked on an hour-to-hour basis so calls can be returned in case of urgent messages, according to Zoghbi. Besides, the Fambras intends to send a team to visit the Muslim countries delegations and help them if need be.

According to the Fambras vice president, the federation has worked to spread knowledge about Islam among the general public for some time now. “We have set a few parameters to dispel prejudice and ignorance as to what Islam really is”, says Zoghbi. When Brazil was chosen to host the World Cup, Fambras decided that it would be a good opportunity to proceed with the work and help government organizations support the Muslims during the tournament.

Service:

Guide Muslim Fan – Salam Brazil – World Cup 2014: http://www.fambras.org.br/Content/image_app/images/FanGuidePDF.pdf

Telephone service for Muslims during the World Cup: 0800 718 6245

App for smartphones: coming soon

*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum and Rodrigo Mendonça

São Paulo – Arab companies which took part of the supermarket sector’s fair, Apas, finished this Thursday (8th), in São Paulo, promise to come back to the event next year. Invited to present their products at the Arab Brazilian Chamber of Commerce’s stand at Expo Center Norte, the exhibitors stated that the show offered the opportunity to reach a large number of purchasing public and to meet with people capable of deciding or not on the closing of deals.

 “Apas is a great opportunity for companies from Tunisia and other Arab countries to show their products and learn about the food consumed in Brazil and Latin America. It is also an opportunity for them to meet clients and distributors in Brazil. This was our first time at the fair, but it will not be the last”, said the Middle East and Africa Exporters Association (Maex)’s general-secretary, Zied Jaouadi.

Maex is based in Tunisia. At the event, Jaouadi presented dates produced in the country to visitors. He has already been to another Brazilian fair, Sial, last year.

The businessman suggested that in the next edition the fair organizers should bring together companies from other Arab countries and Brazilian suppliers to discuss business opportunities. “It would be a way to promote exports and imports”, said Jaouadi.

Chairman of the Egyptian company Elmokkadem Co. for Export and Import, Mohamed El Mokkadem came to Apas to show products such as potato snacks, dates, flavoring, among others. Besides looking for clients, he met with companies which are willing to export to Egypt.

 “The Brazilian market was unknown to us and we learn a little about it every day. I think I will be able to do business with the companies from here because my products are interesting to the Egyptian consumers and vice-versa. Dates are not grown here, for example, and there we don’t have tropical fruit we can find here. Brazil is also very technologically advanced in food processing. I would like to take this technology to Egypt. There will be even more opportunities in the next edition”, he said.

During Apas, Mokkadem met with a candy company from Brazil that wishes to import flavoring components. He may also buy fruit for Egypt. “For now it is time for Brazilian fruit, which have a large market in Europe, to be shipped. The price is a little high, so we have to wait for it to lower”, he said.

Owner of the importer and exporter Comercial Khoury, Amin Khoury, expects to close deals with the contacts he met at the fair. He exports to Brazil the olive oil Nasr, manufactured by his relatives in Lebanon. “Two olive oil specialists tasted our product and said it is very good. They will recommend it to their clients. Besides that, I have established import contacts with supermarkets in the São Paulo countryside and other states”, he said.

*Translated by Rodrigo Mendonça

São Paulo – Managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Christine Lagarde, were in Rabat, capital of Morocco, this Thursday (8th) and spoke on the economy of transitioning Arab countries, that means, the ones affected by the Arab Spring of 2011. In a speech at the Moroccan Economic, Social and Environmental Council, she advocated the strengthening of the small and medium-sized companies, middle class and a “middle road” for the roles of government, not too intrusive or too liberal.

 “The good news is that the economic situation in the Arab transitioning countries is looking up – higher exports, higher public investment and signs that private investment will rise,” said Lagarde. “Countries like Morocco are reaping the fruits of their efforts by diversifying and spurring both exports and foreign investment – especially in high value-added areas, like cars, aeronautics, and electronics,” she added.

That said, she pointed out that economic stability alone in not enough, as these nations go through a “jarring job crisis”, unemployment rate averaging 13%, with youth unemployment up to 29% entre, one of the highest rates in the world. Since 2012, according to Lagarde, the number of people out of work has jumped by 1.5 million.

For the Fund’s director, these nations have to double the average growth rates, currently at 3%, to have a larger job creation. It is worth noting that the block cited is quite diverse, including countries which did not change regime, such as Morocco and Jordan, to cases such as Syria, which is in civil war.

As such, she recommended the strengthening of the “central pillars’ of economy. One of these pillars is represented by the small and medium-sized companies, which are the backbone of a healthy economy and are the main engines of job creation”.

Lagarde pointed out that in the transitioning Arab nations the formal economy is dominated by a few large firms and the informality rates range from 17% in Jordan to a 35% in Tunisia.

Other main point is the strengthening of the middle class which, according to her, in countries such as Egypt, Jordan and Morocco, has a higher share of the wealth today than in the 960’s. “Let me be frank: the dividends of growth have too often gone to the top, leaving too many others out in the cold”, she said.

The IMF’s director observed that global experience shows that a strong middle class is necessary to drive and economy forward. “A strong middle class makes societies more cohesive, and lays ground for stability and prosperity. A strong middle class is also home to the kinds of entrepreneurs we need for today’s modern economy,” she said.

As regards the state, Lagarde pointed out the governments “need to take a step back from some areas and step forward in others”, that is, to grant less subsidies and expand the social protection. The subsidies to food and fuel are commonplace in the Arab world. She advised the resources should be directed to safety nets, health education and public investment.

“Most importantly, [the state] needs to become less of an employer, and more of an effective and impartial regulator and enabler of the private sector – the ultimate source of good jobs”, stressed the businesswoman.

In Lagarde’s evaluation, strengthening these central pillars means to make the economy more of a “participatory” and less of a “privilege” economy.

Policies

She suggested the adoption of a series of policies for this goal, such as facilitating the opening of companies by reducing the bureaucracy, boosting credit offer, reducing tariff and non-tariff trade barriers, enabling young people to enter the job market, reducing the labor regulations fees and strengthening the women participation in economy.

In this last issue, the IMF’s director said that the difference between male and female contribution to the job market in the Middle East and North Africa is three times larger than in most developing nations. “It is imperative to let women contribute, by removing outdated obstacles and introducing enabling policies”, she pointed out. “After all, it was Ibn Rushd who said that ‘treating women like a burden to the men is one of the reasons for poverty’”, she added, referring to Averroes, Arab philosopher defender of Aristotle’s’ philosophy in the Middle Ages.

Lagarde suggested a bigger transparency and the adoptions of good governance. And that goes for both public and private. According to her, more than half the companies in Middle East and North Africa report having been asked for a bribe.

According to the IMF, the speech of the managing director was a preview of the issues which will be discusses in the regional conference Building the Future: Jobs, Growth, & Fairness in the Arab World , which will be held on the 11th and12th, in Amman, Jordan. The event is promoted by the IMF, Government of Jordan and the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development.

Lagarde concluded by saying that the IMF is a partner of the transitioning Arab nations seeking for reforms. She declared that the institution delivered 55 technical assistance missions in the region in 2013 and committed more than US$ 10 billion in financial support.

*Translated by Rodrigo Mendonça

São Paulo – Managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Christine Lagarde, were in Rabat, capital of Morocco, this Thursday (8th) and spoke on the economy of transitioning Arab countries, that means, the ones affected by the Arab Spring of 2011. In a speech at the Moroccan Economic, Social and Environmental Council, she advocated the strengthening of the small and medium-sized companies, middle class and a “middle road” for the roles of government, not too intrusive or too liberal.

 “The good news is that the economic situation in the Arab transitioning countries is looking up – higher exports, higher public investment and signs that private investment will rise,” said Lagarde. “Countries like Morocco are reaping the fruits of their efforts by diversifying and spurring both exports and foreign investment – especially in high value-added areas, like cars, aeronautics, and electronics,” she added.

That said, she pointed out that economic stability alone in not enough, as these nations go through a “jarring job crisis”, unemployment rate averaging 13%, with youth unemployment up to 29% entre, one of the highest rates in the world. Since 2012, according to Lagarde, the number of people out of work has jumped by 1.5 million.

For the Fund’s director, these nations have to double the average growth rates, currently at 3%, to have a larger job creation. It is worth noting that the block cited is quite diverse, including countries which did not change regime, such as Morocco and Jordan, to cases such as Syria, which is in civil war.

As such, she recommended the strengthening of the “central pillars’ of economy. One of these pillars is represented by the small and medium-sized companies, which are the backbone of a healthy economy and are the main engines of job creation”.

Lagarde pointed out that in the transitioning Arab nations the formal economy is dominated by a few large firms and the informality rates range from 17% in Jordan to a 35% in Tunisia.

Other main point is the strengthening of the middle class which, according to her, in countries such as Egypt, Jordan and Morocco, has a higher share of the wealth today than in the 960’s. “Let me be frank: the dividends of growth have too often gone to the top, leaving too many others out in the cold”, she said.

The IMF’s director observed that global experience shows that a strong middle class is necessary to drive and economy forward. “A strong middle class makes societies more cohesive, and lays ground for stability and prosperity. A strong middle class is also home to the kinds of entrepreneurs we need for today’s modern economy,” she said.

As regards the state, Lagarde pointed out the governments “need to take a step back from some areas and step forward in others”, that is, to grant less subsidies and expand the social protection. The subsidies to food and fuel are commonplace in the Arab world. She advised the resources should be directed to safety nets, health education and public investment.

“Most importantly, [the state] needs to become less of an employer, and more of an effective and impartial regulator and enabler of the private sector – the ultimate source of good jobs”, stressed the businesswoman.

In Lagarde’s evaluation, strengthening these central pillars means to make the economy more of a “participatory” and less of a “privilege” economy.

Policies

She suggested the adoption of a series of policies for this goal, such as facilitating the opening of companies by reducing the bureaucracy, boosting credit offer, reducing tariff and non-tariff trade barriers, enabling young people to enter the job market, reducing the labor regulations fees and strengthening the women participation in economy.

In this last issue, the IMF’s director said that the difference between male and female contribution to the job market in the Middle East and North Africa is three times larger than in most developing nations. “It is imperative to let women contribute, by removing outdated obstacles and introducing enabling policies”, she pointed out. “After all, it was Ibn Rushd who said that ‘treating women like a burden to the men is one of the reasons for poverty’”, she added, referring to Averroes, Arab philosopher defender of Aristotle’s’ philosophy in the Middle Ages.

Lagarde suggested a bigger transparency and the adoptions of good governance. And that goes for both public and private. According to her, more than half the companies in Middle East and North Africa report having been asked for a bribe.

According to the IMF, the speech of the managing director was a preview of the issues which will be discusses in the regional conference Building the Future: Jobs, Growth, & Fairness in the Arab World , which will be held on the 11th and12th, in Amman, Jordan. The event is promoted by the IMF, Government of Jordan and the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development.

Lagarde concluded by saying that the IMF is a partner of the transitioning Arab nations seeking for reforms. She declared that the institution delivered 55 technical assistance missions in the region in 2013 and committed more than US$ 10 billion in financial support.

*Translated by Rodrigo Mendonça

São Paulo – Tunisia plans on increasing its phosphate production to 12 million tonnes by 2020. The manufactured volume was lower than 3 million tonnes last year. The information was supplied by Kamel Ben Naceur, the Tunisian minister of Industry, Mines and Energy, while attending the Brazil-Tunisia Economic forum this Tuesday (6th) at the headquarters of the Federation of Industry of the State of São Paulo (Fiesp), in the namesake capital.

“Output is down from eight million (tonnes) in 2010 to less than three million in 2013. The target this year is to go back to 5 or 5.5 million tonnes, then 8 million by 2016, and finally 12 million by 2020”, said Naceur.

The minister also said he is in talks for an eventual cooperation in the area with Brazil’s mining company Vale, in whose offices he attended a meeting last Monday (5th). “We are talking about excellent opportunities, first of all in technology, since Vale boasts experience in pipeline transportation of fertilizers with water. This type of system could be very interesting for us, for mines with outputs ranging from 2 to 3 million per annum,” he said.

Another potential area for cooperation with the Brazilian company, said Naceur, is a project for a phosphate mine in Midwest Tunisia. “The investment is US$ 2.5 billion. We will see how we can streamline the whole cycle by using the knowledge of companies such as Vale,” he said.

He also pointed out other sectors in which the two countries could work in tandem. “The opportunities for cooperation with Brazil lie in sectors such as electrical, mechanical, textiles, leathers and shoes, agrifoods, pharmaceutical, aeronautical, third-party services, tourism, and logistics services,” he asserted.

Marcelo Sallum, the president of the Arab Brazilian Chamber of Commerce, attended the meeting at Fiesp and gave bilateral trade figures between Brazil and Tunisia, noting that there are possibilities for growth. “In 2013, trade between the two countries amounted to US$ 426 million. That is still a fairly low volume. We truly believe there are opportunities for business to increase on both sides,” he stated.

Michel Alaby, the Arab Chamber CEO, highlighted the importance of Brazilian companies being international-minded, i.e. setting up operations in another country. “Exports from Brazil (to Tunisia) hinge mostly on raw materials and foods, but we could also produce foodstuffs in Tunisia, whose labour force is productive and effecetive.” As case in points of Brazilian companies already operating from the Arab country, he listed footwear company Dumond and cement manufacturer Votorantim.

Sabri Bachtobji, the Tunisian ambassador in Brasília, mentioned the event’s importance to bringing companies together. “Today’s event will help the Brazilian industry to become a privileged partner of the Tunisian industry,” he said.

Ricardo Schaefer, the executive secretary to the Brazilian Ministry of Industry, Development and Foreign Trade, spoke on Tunisia’s current political scenario and how Brazil could benefit from it. “Boosting trade and cooperation with African countries is one of the Brazilian government’s goals,” he said.

Khalil Labidi, CEO of the Tunisian Foreign Investment Promotion Agency (Fipa), mentioned the advantages available to companies once they set up a base in his country. “Tunisia offers major fiscal and financial advantages to investors. Exporting companies in Tunisia sell 70% of their output to the foreign market, and 30% locally,” he said.

The event was also attended by Rubens Hannun, the honorary consul of Tunisia in São Paulo and Arab Chamber Foreign Trade vice president, and by Heinz Huyer, honorary consul of Tunisia in the state of Rio Grande do Sul.

*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum

São Paulo – Tunisia plans on increasing its phosphate production to 12 million tonnes by 2020. The manufactured volume was lower than 3 million tonnes last year. The information was supplied by Kamel Ben Naceur, the Tunisian minister of Industry, Mines and Energy, while attending the Brazil-Tunisia Economic forum this Tuesday (6th) at the headquarters of the Federation of Industry of the State of São Paulo (Fiesp), in the namesake capital.

“Output is down from eight million (tonnes) in 2010 to less than three million in 2013. The target this year is to go back to 5 or 5.5 million tonnes, then 8 million by 2016, and finally 12 million by 2020”, said Naceur.

The minister also said he is in talks for an eventual cooperation in the area with Brazil’s mining company Vale, in whose offices he attended a meeting last Monday (5th). “We are talking about excellent opportunities, first of all in technology, since Vale boasts experience in pipeline transportation of fertilizers with water. This type of system could be very interesting for us, for mines with outputs ranging from 2 to 3 million per annum,” he said.

Another potential area for cooperation with the Brazilian company, said Naceur, is a project for a phosphate mine in Midwest Tunisia. “The investment is US$ 2.5 billion. We will see how we can streamline the whole cycle by using the knowledge of companies such as Vale,” he said.

He also pointed out other sectors in which the two countries could work in tandem. “The opportunities for cooperation with Brazil lie in sectors such as electrical, mechanical, textiles, leathers and shoes, agrifoods, pharmaceutical, aeronautical, third-party services, tourism, and logistics services,” he asserted.

Marcelo Sallum, the president of the Arab Brazilian Chamber of Commerce, attended the meeting at Fiesp and gave bilateral trade figures between Brazil and Tunisia, noting that there are possibilities for growth. “In 2013, trade between the two countries amounted to US$ 426 million. That is still a fairly low volume. We truly believe there are opportunities for business to increase on both sides,” he stated.

Michel Alaby, the Arab Chamber CEO, highlighted the importance of Brazilian companies being international-minded, i.e. setting up operations in another country. “Exports from Brazil (to Tunisia) hinge mostly on raw materials and foods, but we could also produce foodstuffs in Tunisia, whose labour force is productive and effecetive.” As case in points of Brazilian companies already operating from the Arab country, he listed footwear company Dumond and cement manufacturer Votorantim.

Sabri Bachtobji, the Tunisian ambassador in Brasília, mentioned the event’s importance to bringing companies together. “Today’s event will help the Brazilian industry to become a privileged partner of the Tunisian industry,” he said.

Ricardo Schaefer, the executive secretary to the Brazilian Ministry of Industry, Development and Foreign Trade, spoke on Tunisia’s current political scenario and how Brazil could benefit from it. “Boosting trade and cooperation with African countries is one of the Brazilian government’s goals,” he said.

Khalil Labidi, CEO of the Tunisian Foreign Investment Promotion Agency (Fipa), mentioned the advantages available to companies once they set up a base in his country. “Tunisia offers major fiscal and financial advantages to investors. Exporting companies in Tunisia sell 70% of their output to the foreign market, and 30% locally,” he said.

The event was also attended by Rubens Hannun, the honorary consul of Tunisia in São Paulo and Arab Chamber Foreign Trade vice president, and by Heinz Huyer, honorary consul of Tunisia in the state of Rio Grande do Sul.

*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum

São Paulo – Middle Eastern and North African countries’ economies will grow this year and in 2015, but they will have long-term challenges. According to the most recent data in the report “Regional Economic Outlook”, disclosed this Tuesday (6th) by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Arab nations, plus Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, should grow 3.2% this year and 4.4% in 2015. Among the oil exporting countries, the forecast increase is 3.4% and 4.6%, respectively. The forecast for oil importing countries, however, is 2.8% this year and 4.1% in the next.

Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen are among the countries the IMF considers oil exporters. Afghanistan, Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Pakistan, Sudan, Syria and Tunisia are considered oil importers. From these groups, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran are not Arab countries.

In the Fund’s evaluation, the GDP of the Middle Eastern and North African countries will grow this year due to the global economy recovery. Both oil exporters and importers, however, will need to promote reforms in their economies to ensure long-term growth.

“Oil and gas output is expected to remain broadly stable in 2014. GCC production will rise owing to strengthening global demand, challenges in restoring oil production in the non-GCC countries (particularly Libya), and a decline in global oil inventories caused in part by cold weather in North America ”, says the release from the Fund.

The evaluation for oil importing countries, however, is that the economy grew roughly 3% last year, will expand a little below these 3% this year and increase to 4% in 2015, not enough for the demand of these countries. “Hovering at 3 percent last year, it has not yet caught up to the historical average, which is close to 5 percent. Even if it did, growth would be insufficient to reduce persistently high unemployment and improve living standards in the region ”, says the document.

Challenges

The document from the IMF warns that Middle East and North Africa countries will have long term challenges and claims that the oil exporters can no longer depend exclusively of the production of the commodity to survive. It reckons that the non-oil sector has been boosting the growth, but it warns that the recovery of the production in other countries, the higher energetic efficiency and the supplying of other forms of energy in North America may influence the production and the price of the commodity.

“Futures markets suggest the price of crude could decline by about $6 per barrel between 2013 and 2015 ”, says the document.

The IMF also observes that the capacity of oil exporters to resist crises is lower than in previous reports due to the increase in public sector salaries, oil price reduction and smaller fiscal surplus. Besides, some of these oil producing countries have been offering generous energetic subsidies, which boost consumption at the expense of exports.

As regards the oil importing nations, the main challenges are to solve political problems, undertake structural reforms to create jobs and export. The document observes that Jordan, Morocco, Egypt, Yemen and Tunisia are nation in political “transition”. For this group, the growth forecast is 2.8% in 2014 and 4.3% in 2015.

The growth forecast for each country in 2014 and 2015 is as follows: Algeria, 4.3% and 4.1%, respectively; Bahrain, 4.7% and 3.3%; Iraq, 5.9% and 6.7%; Kuwait, 2.6% and 3.0%; Libya, -7.8% and 29.8%; Oman, 3.4% and 3.4%; Qatar, 5.9% and 7.1%; Saudi Arabia, 4.1% and 4.2%, United Arab Emirates, 4.4% and 4.2%; Yemen, 5.1% and 4.4%; Djibouti, 6% and 6.5%; Egypt, 2.3% and 4.1%; Lebanon, 1% and 2.5%; Mauritania, 6.8% and 6.5%; Morocco, 3.9% and 4.9%; Sudan, 2.7% and 4.6%; Tunisia, 3% and 3.5%; West Bank and Gaza, 2.5% and 2.7%. The IMF did not make predictions for Syria due to political uncertainty.

*Translated by Rodrigo Mendonça