Scott Morrison, Australia’s conservative prime minister, pulled off a shock defeat in Australia’s national election Saturday, defying scores of polls that predicted a victory

“I have always believed in miracles,” Mr. Morrison said at his victory party. “Tonight is about every single Australian who depends on their government to put them first. And that is exactly what we are going to do.”

The final result of the election may not be known until late Saturday, Morrison’s coalition won more than 70% of the 74 seats of the 76 needed for a majority, with Labor on just 66 seats.

However, the win by Morrison, who has been friendly with President Donald Trump, signals a swell of populist voters that mirrors similar rises in the UK and America.

A significant block of voter support for Morrison came from outer suburban seats with demographics that closely resemble America’s Rust Belt, according to Reuters. Taking office in August, Morrison became the became Australia’s fifth prime minister in five years, and the latest figure at the front of the country’s tense politics.

AAP Image/Dean Lewins/via REUTERS

Both parties have called for stability amid turbulent national politics

The country’s conservative party has been at the center of swelling tensions in national politics with its hawkish stances on immigration and atmosphere of sexism that has alienated women, who have fled in droves from the party.

Despite the recent controversies, Morrison’s victory secures a continuing foothold for conservative politicians on the national stage.

Morrison pushed the party’s economic and immigration policies while seeking re-election, while his opponent, the Labor Party’s Bill Shorten, presented a vision that included addressing climate change and developing federal interventions into the economy.

These proposals were painted by Morrison as costly and threatening to the country’s economic success, comments that came just over a year after he brought a lump of coal to Parliament to voice his support for industry and rail against what he called “coal-o-phobia.”

Though the country saw carbon emissions fall while the economy grew under a carbon tax passed in 2011, Liberals repealed the tax in 2014 and haven’t offered a comprehensive legislative solution for the environment since.

Shorten also voiced suspicions of Trump and the US that were pushed aside by Morrison’s lively and often combative campaign that drew marked similarities to Trump’s campaign for the 2016 US presidential election.

Morrison’s victory speech had a similarly strong call for support for working-class Australians “who have worked hard every day, they have their dreams, they have their aspirations, to get a job, to get an apprenticeship, to start a business, to meet someone amazing.”

Emphasizing industry, Morrison championed his mission to support Australians’ potential “To start a family, to buy a home, to work hard and provide the best you can for your kids. To save for your retirement.”

He continued, calling his supporters “the quiet Australians.”

Some have pointed to Saturday’s surprise results as another part of the populist wave sweeping international politics.

“I think people have become afraid after a very negative campaign,” Labor supporter Julie Nelson told Reuters at the party’s Melbourne election night function. “They [the Liberals] managed to convince people they should be afraid of change.”

Susan Harris-Rimmer, a law professor at Griffith University in Queensland, told the New York Times that politics had reached a new, “absurd” normal.

“It just seems like it’s been a long time since politics was normal anywhere,” Harris-Rimmer said.

Morrison’s unexpected victory doesn’t exactly spell a certain future for conservative control of the country, as it’s still unclear if politicians close to Morrison can pass policy with an outright majority or will need to court independents for support.

Dangerous storms fired up in southwest and central Kansas Friday night in what’s shaping up to be an active few-day stretch of stormy weather.

Friday’s isolated storms produced a few large, damaging tornadoes. You can follow updates as storms popped up and advanced below:

Friday nigh wrap

The threat for severe weather begins to weaken as late Friday night roles into early Saturday morning, but several central-Kansas counties remain in tornado watches until 2 a.m.

Another round of severe storms could impact central and eastern Kansas Saturday. The main threats will be large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Another storm system will move into the central plains for the start of the work week. This could bring more severe weather to Kansas on Monday, with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes possible.

The severe weather threat Tuesday moves to the east, into eastern Kansas.

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11:45 p.m.

The lone TORNADO WARNING in effect for southern and eastern portions of Barton County is allowed to expire. This storm did produce a tornado that was on the ground for about a minute near the Barton/Stafford County, about six miles south of Great Bend.

Besides the tornado threat, this storm has produced hail and winds of about 60 mph.

We’re getting a closer look at tornado damage from a storm earlier tonight near Bloom in southeast Ford County. The damage was to a home, but there were no reports of injuries.

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11:07 p.m.

A tornado is reported near Radium in eastern Pawnee County,moving northeast toward southern Barton County. This is about 11 miles southwest of the Great Bend area. People in Great Bend should practice caution and take shelter.

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11 p.m.

Damaging wind gusts is the primary threat associated with a severe thunderstorm near Lincoln and a severe thunderstorm warning continuing until 11:30 p.m. for Ellsworth, Lincoln and Russell counties.

There are reports of tornado damage including snapped and twisted power poles near Lewis in eastern Pawnee County.

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10:48 p.m.

A TORNADO WARNING is in effect until 11:15 p.m. is in effect Edwards, Pawnee and Stafford counties. Larned is included among cities with this warning. Other towns in the warning include Pleasant Grove, Pleasant Ridge and Radium.

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10:40 p.m>

The National Weather Service confirms a large, damage-causing tornado near Zook in rural southeast Pawnee County. This storm is moving northeast at about 35 mph.

The tornado crossed K-19 and is expected to stay east of Larned.

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10:28 p.m.

The TORNADO WARNING expires in Russell County. The county remains in a severe thunderstorm warning. This storm carries the potential for more damaging winds. Earlier, 76 mph winds were measured in the city of Russell.

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10:13 p.m.

The National Weather Service confirms a large tornado impacting the Kinsley area is moving northeast at about 35 mph. A Storm Team 12 chaser says this tornado damaged two homes southwest of Kinsley, but no one was injured.

In Russell, 76 mph winds were reported. Russell County remains in a TORNADO WARNING until 10:45 p.m. Stafford and Pawnee counties are also in a tornado warning until 10:45.

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10:02 p.m.

A wedge tornado was confirmed southwest of Kinsley in Edwards County. This storm is south of Highway 50, moving northeast.

A tornado warning is lifted in Ford County, but we are hearing more reports of damage, this report to a home about four miles south of Windhorst.

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9:58 p.m.

A new TORNADO WARNING is in effect for Pawnee, Stafford and Russell counties until 10:45 p.m. A storm capable of producing a tornado is moving northeast from near the town of Gorham at about 50 mph.

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9:45 p.m.

The tornado warning for eastern Ford County, the northwest corner of Kiowa County and southern portions of Edwards County remains in effect until at least 10 p.m.

There are reports of damage to a shed southwest of the city of Ford.

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9:40 p.m.

Our Storm Team 12 spotters say the two tornadoes that were on the ground in southeast Ford County have dissipated, but a new TORNADO WARNING is in effect for eastern Ford County, the northwest corner of Kiowa County and southern portions of Edwards County.

This warning does not include Dodge City nor Greensburg, but people in the Kinsley area should take shelter.

A third tornado did touch down in eastern Ford County, but lifted after a few minutes.

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9:25 p.m.

A tornado-producing storm continues to move northeast at about 40 mph. This storm is not threatening Dodge City, but people in the community of Ford should take cover. There have been two tornadoes confirmed with this storm with both on the ground at the same time.

There are damage reports to a home a few miles outside of Bloom.

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9:15 p.m.

There are two tornadoes on the ground moving through southeastern Ford County, moving through a rural area southwest of the town of Ford.

These tornadoes are well to the southeast of Dodge City and not moving toward the city.

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9:05 p.m.

The tornado in southern Ford County heavily damaged a structure (possibly a home) northeast of Minneola as it remains on the ground, tracking northeast. This tornado also overturned a semi between Minneola and Fowler.

Counties under TORNADO WARNINGS include Ford, Meade, Gray, Hodgeman, Ness and Clark counties.

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8:55 p.m.

A tornado touched down in the southern part of Ford County has picked up momentum, moving northeast. This rope tornado northeast of Minneola will not threaten Dodge City.

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8:40 p.m.

A brief tornado was reported with a storm north of Fowler in northern Meade County. This storm is moving northeast.

A TORNADO WARNING remains in effect for Meade, Clark, Gray and Ford counties until at least 9:15 p.m.

A TORNADO WARNING in Hodgeman County remains in effect until at least 9 p.m. Areas of concern include northern Meade County, north of Fowler and west of Jetmore in Hodgeman County.

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8:20 p.m.

A TORNADO WARNING is issued for Hodgeman County. Radar indicates rotation with a storm east of Kalvesta. Tennis-ball-sized hail is also a threat with this storm moving northeast at 40 mph.

Earlier this evening, a tornado touched down near Beaver, Okla. Meade County was included in a tornado warning with this storm.

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6 p.m.

As of 6 p.m. tonight (Friday), there are no severe thunderstorm warnings nor immediate tornado threats in Kansas.

Storms that Friday afternoon made their way through northwest Kansas did produce at least a pair of tornadoes in southwest Nebraska, the first of which was reported just north of the Kansas/Nebraska line in Hitchcock County.

In central Kansas, moderate rain and lightning are possible with a storm near Salina, moving northeast. These storm is not severe.

While there are no active warnings in Kansas, a tornado watch remains in effect for several northwest counties until at least 10 p.m.

Another storm threat Saturday includes a low tornado threat, a medium threat for large hail and strong winds and a high threat of flooding rains for much of central and eastern Kansas, including the Wichita area.

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5:30 p.m.

A TORNADO WARNING remains in effect for portions of Hitchcock and Red Willow counties in southwest Nebraska, but the tornado threat is over for Rawlins county in northwest Kansas as this storm continues to move northeast.

The threat for more isolated storms to develop and advance across western Kansas continues as the evening rolls along.

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5:15 p.m.

A TORNADO WARNING is in effect for north central Rawlins County and southeast Hitchcock County in Nebraska until 5;45 p.m.

The storm capable of producing a tornado is 11 miles north of Atwood and moving northeast at 30 mph.

A tornado watch is in effect until at least 10 p.m. for several western-Kansas counties.

In recent days, fears have grown that escalating tensions between Iran and the US could erupt into a military conflict.

The US has increased its military presence in the Persian Gulf, accusing Iran of deploying missiles which could be used to target US forces in the region, and has evacuated US personnel from its embassy in the Iraqi capital Baghdad.

Critics have focused on Trump’s hawkish national security adviser John Bolton, who has been accused of seeking to coax the president into forcing the regime change in Iran that he has long advocated.

But some observers are taking a different view, and see in Trump’s treatment of Iran not as a build-up to conflict, but rather the application of strong-arm negotiating tactics.

Reports indicate that Trump is frustrated with Bolton for his excessively uncompromising treatment of Iran, but the president has over the last two years slowly increased pressure on the country, tearing up the Iran deal brokered between the Obama administration and Tehran, and imposing tough sanctions on the country.

REUTERS/Leah Millis

In May, the US imposed fresh sanctions on Iran, targeting steel, aluminium and copper exports. The president has vowed to renegotiate a bigger, better deal with Iran, to curb its nuclear ambitions and what he claims is its malign influence in the region.

Observers point to a similar pattern in his treatment of another state where the US is determined to neutralize a nuclear threat: North Korea.

With North Korea, Trump initially threatened the “total destruction” of the state following a series of missile tests by Pyongyang in 2017, then when North Korea agreed to denuclearization talks the president stepped back from threats of military action, and lavished praise on its leader, Kim Jong Un.

(Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

Read more: Trump has reportedly told senior staff he really doesn’t want to go to war with Iran

With Iran maximum pressure is again being used as leverage to bring Tehran to the negotiating table, they claim. Trump on Thursday tweeted: “I’m sure that Iran will want to talk soon,” and according to multiple reports has told advisers that he wants a diplomatic solution to the current crisis.

“He is trying to rerun the North Korea thing, to be as extreme as he can be up until the point of military action,” Thomas Wright, a Brookings Institution fellow told the New Yorker in an article published Friday.

Wright, however, pointed to a key and terrifying difference: “His advisers then were worried he was going to war, so there was no danger of them pulling him in, whereas, in this case, his adviser wants to drag him in.”

During the presidential election campaign in 2016 Trump sold himself to the electorate as the dealmaker in chief, and observers say he has long prized his ability to face-down opponents and haggle out agreements.

Lisi Niesner/Reuters

“I think this is a president that is looking for transactional outcomes and this is a president that would like to be able to demonstrate he can achieve negotiations on very tough issues where his predecessors have failed,” Sanam Vakil, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, a London-based think tank, told Business Insider.

She said that Iran was well aware of the parallels with North Korea: “I would also add that the Iranians have been very carefully watching North Korea and the negotiations to see if this is a model that would fit in their playbook in this way.”

Read more: Pictures showing Iranian paramilitaries loading attack boats with missiles are reportedly behind the US’s sharp escalation of tensions with Tehran

However, Vakil warned that the administration’s “zero sum” approach of ratcheting up the threats was unlikely to result in a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran.

“The Trump strategy is predicated on the idea that doubling down 150% on Iran is the way to bring Iran to the table. I think that is a reflection of their limited understanding of the Islamic Republic, their worldview. So I don’t see backing Iran into a corner with zero sum objectives as being the right strategy,” she said,

According to Vakil, Tehran would expect to see a sign of possible concessions from the US before agreeing to talk, and for bellicose rhetoric to be ratcheted down.

Leah Millis/Reuters

Other observers though point out that Iran is more susceptible to economic pressure than North Korea, with its economy hit hard by recent US sanctions to restrict it selling oil on international markets.

“Maximum pressure has been much more effective against Iran than North Korea,” Gary Samore, a professor at Brandeis University and former Obama administration official told the Atlantic.

This is “mainly because Iran is much more vulnerable to trade and financial sanctions than North Korea and because China is quietly doing enough to keep North Korea alive for fear that Kim [Jong] Un will do something desperate if economic pain [gets] too intense,” Samore said.

Iran’s leaders have thus far shown little willingness to reopen negotiations with the US unless it reenters the Obama administration-brokered nuclear agreement, and President Hasan Rouhani in remarks Thursday gave his own summary of US policy.

“In the morning they send their carrier, at night they give us telephone numbers. But we have enough numbers from the Americans,” he remarked.