At least 3 to 6 inches of rain, with localized maximum amounts, of 9 inches in forecast for northern and western Florida, heightening the potential for isolated flash, urban, and river flooding in the area through Wednesday morning.

Source Article from https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/fl-ne-hurricane-elsa-florida-weather-wednesday-20210707-7xz2lp3gdretzopw2vr237qofq-story.html

Elsa weakened to a tropical storm early Wednesday but it still packs the potential for life-threatening storm surge, heavy winds, isolated tornadoes and heavy rains that could create flooding up and down the coast of Florida.

Elsa became a Category 1 Hurricane Tuesday but was downgraded Wednesday morning.

While the storm weakened, hurricane warnings remain in place for more than four million people.

Across three states, more than 12 million people are under a tropical storm warning.

The storm was southwest of Tampa early Wednesday morning, where residents were urged to stay indoors.

As the storm churns off the western coast of Florida with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, it is expected to be near the Pinellas Peninsula around 2 a.m. EST – the closest it will be to land before it makes landfall later in the morning.

The system is moving north at 14 mph on a collision course with Cedar Key in the Big Bend area, where it is expected to make landfall late Wednesday morning.

Bands of heavy rain and strong winds continue to spread inland across southwest and west-central Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center. A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Florida until 8 a.m., according to a tweet from the National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis expanded his state of emergency declaration Tuesday to include a total of 33 counties as local, state and utility resources continue to prepare for the incoming storm.

The Florida National Guard has activated 60 guardsmen to serve at the State Emergency Operations Center and Logistics Readiness Center, according to a release from the Guard. It is prepared to activate additional personnel as needed.

“We are well-equipped with assets including high-wheeled vehicles, helicopters, boats and generators, and are preparing for possible missions to include humanitarian assistance, security operations, search and rescue, aviation, and more,” the guard said in the release.

In Tampa, officials urged residents to stay off the roads as the storm approaches.

Counties and utilities preparing ahead of storm

Both the mayor and emergency coordinator for the city of Tampa posted on social media Tuesday to encourage residents to stay home and be prepared.

“We are prepared here in the city of Tampa but we need you to do your part as well,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said in a video posted to Twitter. “Don’t go outside tonight. If you don’t have to, do not go outside. Stay in.”

“We want everybody to be safe in Tampa and we’ll be up all night monitoring the storm so you don’t have to,” she added.

Earlier, Tampa Emergency Coordinator John Antapasis said it was time for residents to get to safety ahead of the expected landfall.

“Now is the time to get back home, get off the streets and stay safe for the rest of tonight,” he said. “You should be making and finalizing your hurricane plans and ensuring that you’re in a safe location while … Elsa makes it’s way through out community.”

Antapasis advised that people who need to be on the road should check the city’s flood map.

Manatee County Administrator Scott Hopes also warned people to get ready for the storm during a press conference Tuesday.

“Please finalize your plans and secure your homes and get ready to sort of bunker down and ride out this storm,” Hopes said.

Shelters were opened in at least five counties Tuesday and two counties issued voluntary evacuation orders.

Duke Energy, which serves 1.8 million customers in Florida, according to its website, is preparing for anticipated outages from the storm.

The utility said in a press release Tuesday that it has staged 3,000 utility “crew members, contractors, tree specialists and other personnel” from Pinellas County to north Florida.

Additional line workers and support personnel have also been brought in from the Carolinas, Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio, according to the release.

The University of Florida in Gainesville has canceled classes for Wednesday in anticipation of the storm, the university said in a statement.

Tropical storm warnings and emergency declarations extended

Ahead of Elsa’s landfall in Florida, tropical storm warnings have been issued in Georgia and the Carolinas.

The warnings extend northward from the Altamaha Sound, just north of Brunswick, Georgia, towards the Little River Inlet, on the state border between the Carolinas.

A tropical storm watch has been issued north of the Little River Inlet to Duck, North Carolina, on the Outer Banks. This watch includes the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds of the North Carolina lowlands.

On Tuesday, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp issued a State of Emergency in preparation for the impact of Elsa.

“This storm system has the potential to produce destructive impacts to citizens throughout the central, southern, and coastal regions of the State of Georgia and due to the possibility of downed trees, power lines, and debris, Georgia’s network of roads may be rendered impassable in the affected counties, isolating residences and persons from access to essential public services,” Kemp said.

A State of Emergency has been declared in 91 of Georgia’s 159 counties, according to Kemp’s order. The order will expire Wednesday at midnight unless the governor decides to renew it.

CNN’s Sara Weisfeldt, Dave Alsup, Devon Sayers, Tina Burnside, and Camille Furst contributed to this report.

Source Article from https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/07/weather/hurricane-elsa-wednesday/index.html

  • The more transmissible Delta variant is dominant in at least 5 states so far. 
  • President Biden has proposed local “door-to-door” initiatives as mass vaccine sites close. 
  • A Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 29% of Americans say they most likely won’t take a vaccine.

As the more transmissible Delta variant spreads throughout the US, President Joe Biden is scrambling to find ways to get more Americans vaccinated, including going door-to-door. 

In a press briefing on Tuesday, Biden said mass vaccination sites across the country are closing down, and now “we need to go to community by community, neighborhood by neighborhood, and oftentimes, door to door — literally knocking on doors — to get help to the remaining people protected from the virus.”

Experts have said communities with the least vaccination rates are more at risk of outbreaks caused by the more transmissible Delta variant, which originated in India. The variant may also be able to evade protection from existing vaccines, as Insider’s Aria Bendix reported.   

The variant has already been found in all 50 states and is dominant in five, including California. It’s expected to be the most dominant strain in the country in the coming weeks. 

Delta poses the most risks to the unvaccinated. A recent Associated Press analysis found almost all of the COVID-19 deaths in the US are among those who are unvaccinated.

“Our fight against this virus is not over,” Biden said. “Right now, as I speak to you, millions of Americans are still unvaccinated and unprotected. And because of that, their communities are at risk, their friends are at risk. The people that they care about are at risk.”

Read more: Here are 9 people you should watch as Rep. Matt Gaetz’s legal drama escalates

The president’s approach is to change from large public messaging into more local approaches, equipping local medical experts and professionals to work with their communities to get more people vaccinated. 

As mass vaccine sites close, the president said he wanted vaccines to be given at local settings like pharmacies, churches, festivals, or workplaces. He wants the experience to be like “going in to get toothpaste or something else you need from a drugstore.”

“We’re going to put even more emphasis on getting vaccinated in your community, close to home, conveniently at a location you’re already familiar with,” he said. 

About 55% of all Americans are fully vaccinated, CDC data shows, but vaccination rates are declining. While more than 3 million Americans received vaccines daily during the peak in April, the rate has been declining in recent weeks, at one point seeing only 700,000 people getting shots per day. 

Additionally, a Washington Post-ABC News poll from last week found that 29% of Americans say they most likely won’t take a vaccine.

Experts have warned that unvaccinated people are not only risking their own health but risk allowing for more variants.

“Unvaccinated people are potential variant factories,” Dr. William Schaffner, a professor in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told CNN.

“The more unvaccinated people there are, the more opportunities for the virus to multiply,” he added.

Biden warned that while were close to getting out the pandemic, it’s important for everyone to do their part and stay vigilant. 

“We are emerging from one of the darkest years in our nation’s history into a summer of hope and joy, hopefully.  Think about where you were — where you were last year, where you are today; what you were able to do last year at this time and do today. It’s a year of hard-fought progress. We can’t get complacent now,” he said. 

 

Source Article from https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-suggests-door-to-door-vaccination-as-delta-variant-spreads-2021-7

Eric Adam secured his place as the Democratic candidate in the race for New York City mayor Tuesday, winning the Democratic primary.

Adams — who if elected would only be the second Black mayor of the Big Apple — beat out presidential hopeful turned-mayoral candidate Andrew Yang, Maya Wiley, who was endorsed by New York Democrat Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and top contender Kathryn Garcia.

The Associated Press declared Adams the winner early Tuesday evening based on the latest tabulations, which included most absentee ballots.

REVISED VOTE COUNT AGAIN SHOWS TIGHT NYC MAYORAL RACE FOLLOWING TUESDAY’S TALLY TUMULT

The former police captain ran a different race from his fellow Democratic candidates as a moderate and campaigned on opposing the “defund the police” movement. 

“We’re not going to recover as a city if we turn back time and see an increase in violence, particularly gun violence,” Adams said following the May shooting of three people, including a 4-year-old girl, in Times Square. 

Adams frequently referenced his dual identity and how it shaped his platform for policing in the U.S. during his time on the campaign trail 

The 22-year police veteran reportedly suffered his share of police brutality as a Black teenager when he was beaten at the age of 15. 

AOC ENDORSES PROGRESSIVE MAYA WILEY IN NEW YORK CITY MAYORAL CONTEST

Adams then became a police officer in 1984 and rose to become a captain before leaving the force to run for the state Senate in 2006.

But while in the police force, he helped launch a group that pushed for criminal justice reform and countered racial profiling, known as “100 Blacks in Law Enforcement Who Care.”

“If Black lives really matter, it can’t only be against police abuse,” Adams told his supporters the night of the primary race. “It has to be against the violence that’s ripping apart our communities.”

Adams will face off with Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa in the final race for New York City’s mayoral seat. 

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But given the heavily Democratic voter base in New York City — with Democrats outvoting Republicans by seven to one — Adams’ win appears likely.

Current New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio is unable to seek a third term according to the city charter. 

The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

Source Article from https://www.foxnews.com/politics/eric-adams-wins-democratic-primary-race-for-new-york-city-mayor

SURFSIDE, Fla. (AP) — The condo tower collapse in Surfside could exacerbate the division that already exists between the tiny Florida town’s new luxury buildings built for the global elite and those constructed decades ago for the middle class. It is already creating headaches for some small businesses.

The town has seen the construction of numerous new condos in recent years, where large oceanfront units exceeding 3,000 square feet (280 square meters) with modern amenities can fetch $10 million and up. Meanwhile, small units of 800 square feet (75 square meters) in neighboring condo buildings constructed decades ago can be had for $400,000.

Ana Bosovic, a South Florida real estate analyst, said the June 24 collapse of the 40-year-old, middle-class Champlain Towers South will exacerbate this division. At least 36 people were killed and more than 100 remain missing.

Bosovic said many buyers will now avoid older buildings, not just because they fear they might also fall but because of repair costs the Champlain South owners faced before the collapse: $80,000 to $300,000 per unit. These factors will decrease older condos’ value, while prices in luxury buildings will continue to skyrocket.

“The holders of capital who are moving here were never considering older buildings. They are buying newer structures and preconstruction, so I don’t see this putting a damper on their appetites,” said Bosovic, founder of Analytics Miami. “What this will do is further depress sales of older structures and further bifurcate the market.”

Before the Champlain Towers South tragedy, Surfside, with about 6,000 residents on a half-square mile (1.3 square kilometers) of an island off Miami, was one of South Florida’s most anonymous municipalities — though in January Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner rented a luxury condo in a new building two blocks from the collapse.

The town is known for its clean beaches and a 12-story limit on its buildings, and stands in contrast with neighboring Miami Beach and its world-famous nightlife, Bal Harbour with its high-end shopping and both with buildings that are double and triple the height of Surfside’s tallest.

Mayor Charles Burkett said the town has experienced a “roller coaster” of emotions since the collapse. Demolition of the remaining portion of the structure and Tropical Storm Elsa, which brought strong winds and heavy rains to the area, have intensified what the community is going through.

“We have faced innumerable challenges, but the little good news is the resources we have are all aligned, all focused and pulling in the same direction,” he said.

Ryan Mermer moved to Surfside earlier this year from Palm Beach County, drawn by the quiet, the town’s proximity to Miami’s thriving business climate and its large Orthodox Jewish community. On Saturdays, much of the town closes for the Sabbath except for the chain stores. Surfside was home to Isaac Bashevis Singer, a Yiddish poet and short-story writer who won the 1978 Nobel Prize in Literature.

But Mermer also got a deal on a small apartment built a half-century ago, just steps away from the luxury condo that former President Donald Trump’s daughter and son-in-law moved into. While Mermer’s building was constructed for the middle class, today’s construction is aimed at the New York, European and South American elite, who are drawn by the state’s lifestyle, weather and lack of an income tax.

“I pay $1,375 (a month) … across the street from the beach; Ivanka and Jared pay $38,000,” said Mermer, a real estate agent who also works for Holocaust Heroes Worldwide, a support group for survivors of the Nazi death camps.

In Surfside’s low-key shopping district one recent afternoon, barber Aramis Armor and Freddy Elias, the co-owner of a tailor and dry cleaning shop, had no customers. The pandemic hit their businesses hard, both said, and the collapse and the resulting street closures made it difficult for anyone to reach them.

Amor says that in normal times, the business district is full of families — they can have an ice cream, eat pizza or drink a coffee in the many locally owned businesses that dot the downtown.

“They are all very nice, the clients are very good,” Armor said. He blamed city officials for his lack of business, saying they should never have let the collapsed building decay like it did.

Elias, who has owned Surfside businesses for 25 years, is hoping a federal low-interest loan promised by President Joe Biden’s administration to stores affected by the collapse will tide him over until his customers return. Meanwhile, a partner was headed to a customer’s home for a fitting rather than make the client fight traffic to get to the store.

“Since COVID and now this tragedy, it has been very, very bad for us,” Elias said. “We need help.”

The streets reopened this week.

__

Frisaro reported from Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Associated Press writers Mike Schneider in Orlando and Gisela Salomon in Miami; photographer Marta Lavandier in Surfside; and researcher Randy Herschaft in New York contributed to this report.

Source Article from https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-building-collapses-surfside-building-collapse-business-555ff2d0c059f36406bc21313a066184

An Iowa man was ordered held on $10,000 bail Tuesday after he allegedly had a rifle with a laser sight in a Chicago hotel room overlooking a Lake Michigan beach over the Fourth of July weekend, according to authorities. 

A housekeeping employee at the W Hotel told police around 6:45 p.m. Sunday that they saw the rifle, a handgun, and five rifle magazines in a room held by the suspect, Keegan Casteel, 32, reports said. The 12th-floor room had a view of the Ohio Street Beach and Navy Pier, a tourist attraction in the city.

Chicago Police Superintendent David Brown said during a press conference Tuesday that the firearms were on a window sill in a “very suspicious position.”

CHICAGO UNIVERSITY STUDENT DIES AFTER HIT BY STRAY BULLET WHILE RIDING TRAIN HOME FROM INTERNSHIP

Keegan Casteel, 32, of Ankeny, Iowa, was arrested on Sunday
(Chicago Police)

“This employee saw something by entering a room to clean it that likely prevented a tragedy from happening,” Brown said. “So it’s significant and very valuable and we ought … (to) praise that employee for being aware and letting us know so we could react quickly and potentially avoid tragedy.”

Casteel of Ankeny, Iowa, was arrested at the hotel Sunday in possession of the rifle and a handgun, FOX 32 of Chicago reported. He is facing two felony counts of aggravated unlawful use of a loaded weapon without a FOID card.

“The state describes you in possession in a hotel room of a rifle with a laser scope … overlooking Ohio Street Beach,” Cook County Judge David Navarro said. “I understand through the state’s proffer and your attorney that you have permission to possess the firearms in the state of Iowa. However, clearly, we’re not in Iowa.”

Police said they found the semi-automatic rifle with a round in the chamber – along with bullet magazines and a .45 caliber handgun. 

CHICAGO JULY 4TH WEEKEND VIOLENCE: 100 PEOPLE SHOT, INCLUDING 11 KIDS, AND 18 KILLED

Casteel has a permit to possess firearms in Iowa, and prosecutors asked him to surrender all of his gun licenses, according to the Chicago Tribune.

“There is no previous criminal history of this person nor any other issues in our federal databases, but obviously very concerning given the position of the W Hotel to Navy Pier,” Brown said. “Our joint terrorism task force officers debriefed, interviewed this person along with a companion, and we are continuing this investigation.”

The judge set his bond at $10,000 on the condition that he turn in all of his weapons and FOID cards. Castell can live in Iowa as he awaits trial, but he must appear at all of his court dates, FOX 32 reported. 

Casteel has two previous DUI convictions in the state, according to the station. Brown did not say if investigators had determined why Casteel had guns in the hotel room. 

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At least 100 people were shot in Chicago over the extended holiday weekend, including 11 children and a police commander.

Fox News’ Stephanie Pagones contributed to this report

Source Article from https://www.foxnews.com/us/iowa-man-charged-allegedly-brought-loaded-rifle-laser-scope-chicago-hotel-overlooking-beach

A Washington Post opinion piece from an Air Force Academy professor advocated that military academies should teach critical race theory.

On Tuesday, associate professor of political science Lynne Chandler García published an op-ed titled “Why U.S. military academies should teach critical race theory.” Agreeing with Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark A. Milley, García claimed that critical race theory “is not unpatriotic” and does not “promote division among our military members.”

“As a professor of political science at the U.S. Air Force Academy, I teach critical race theories to our nation’s future military leaders because it is vital that cadets understand the history of the racism that has shaped both foreign and domestic policy,” García explained.

This was in reference to Gen. Milley’s defense of studying critical race theory back in June during a congressional hearing. The general argued it was important for cadets “to be open-minded and be widely read” regarding the nation’s history.

“So what is wrong with understanding, having some situational understanding about the country for which we are here to defend? And I personally find it offensive that we are accusing the United States military, our general officers, our commissioned, non-commissioned officers of being, quote, ‘woke’ or something else, because we’re studying some theories that are out there,” Milley said. 

García further explained that studying CRT is crucial to understanding the “duality” that is freedom in the United States. 

JOINT CHIEFS CHAIR DEFENDS STUDY OF CRITICAL RACE THEORY: ‘I’VE READ LENIN. THAT DOESN’T MAKE ME A COMMUNIST’ 

“It helps students identify the structural racism and inequality that has been endemic in American society. And it provides methods for deconstructing oppressive beliefs, policies and practices to find solutions that will lead to justice,” García wrote. “The reality of the Constitution is that it upholds the rule of law and human rights, but once also allowed slavery and has been used to perpetuate legal discrimination.”

In addition, she also accused the military itself of harboring a racist history, noting that while thousands of Black soldiers fought in the Revolutionary War, George Washington initially opposed an integrated regime.

“In other words, racism was ingrained in the system from the beginning, and the military still struggles with these issues. As a recent inspector general’s report on disparities in the Air Force and Space Force pointed out, Black service members lag behind their White peers in promotion rates but are overrepresented in disciplinary actions. Further, a recent Defense Department report documented the threat of white supremacy within the ranks. Cadets need to understand these contradictions within their institutions,” García warned.

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García neglected to reference the exact scope of critical race theory being taught in militaries as well as schools nationwide. As notable opponent of critical race theory Chris Rufo explained in an interview back in June, “They’re teaching concepts like white privilege, white fragility, internalized white supremacy, white guilt, spirit murder. They’re teaching the idea that that even elementary school kids can be labeled as oppressors. It’s a really deeply disturbing phenomenon that we’re seeing all over the country.”

García still insisted that critical race theory was necessary for military intelligence.

“Officers must comprehend the unique experiences and concerns of their diverse troops. A holistic education leads to understanding and unity as service members consider what it’s like to walk in another’s shoes,” she wrote. 

Source Article from https://www.foxnews.com/media/air-force-academy-professor-pushes-military-academies-teach-critical-race-theory

The FBI is building its case against an alleged lead of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot one Lego brick at a time.

Investigators seized a “fully constructed US Capitol Lego set” from Robert Morss, 27, along with a notebook containing instructions on how to create a “hometown militia,” court records published by The Smoking Gun revealed.

The suspect allegedly led rioters in “one of the most intense and prolonged clashes” against law enforcement officials trying to contain throngs of rioters, according to the outlet.

Morss was wearing tactical gear and a “MAGA” hat as he led other Donald Trump supporters who were trying to breach the Capitol’s Lower West Terrace, at one point ripping a riot shield from a Metropolitan Police Department officer, prosecutors alleged in court documents cited in the article.

The Pennsylvania man “came prepared for violence and then repeatedly led the violent mob attacking,” prosecutors reportedly wrote.

Morss’ militia to-do list included preparations like “Ambush” and “Battle Drills,” according to documents published in the report.

The suspect — who remains behind bars — also wrote down reminders to “Bring Assault Rifle” and “4 Magazines.”

The reported Army Ranger-turned-substitute teacher was indicted last month for his alleged role in the uprising, and charged with assaulting, resisting or impeding officers, civil disorder, robbery of US property and obstruction, federal records show.

Five people died as a result of the violent conflict. Capitol Police Officer Brian Sicknick died of a stroke after fighting off the crowd.

More than 140 people were injured when the mob tried to stop Congress from formalizing President Joe Biden’s electoral victory amid Former President Trump’s false claims that the results had been corrupted.

More than 500 people have been charged in the melee so far, and investigators are investigating hundreds of other suspects.

Source Article from https://nypost.com/2021/07/07/fbi-seized-us-capitol-lego-set-from-alleged-riot-leader/

MIAMI (CBSMiami) – Hurricane Elsa is moving northward just offshore the Tampa Bay area, spreading heavy rains and gusty winds across southwest and west-central Florida.

As of the 11 p.m. advisory, the center of Elsa is located about 65 miles southwest of Tampa.

READ MORE: Judge Reprimands Lawyer After Learning Client Had No Connection To Surfside Tragedy

Elsa’s maximum sustained winds were 75 mph as it moved to the north at 14 mph.

Tropical Storm Elsa 11 p.m. stats for Tuesday, June 6. (CBS4)

At a Tuesday morning news conference, Gov. Ron DeSantis urged people in the central and northern parts of the state, along with much of the west coast, to prepare for heavy rain, gusty wind, and storm surge from Tropical Storm Elsa.

Elsa is expected to turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday.

On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning.

Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late Wednesday morning and then move across the southeastern United States through Thursday.

Some fluctuations in the intensity are possible until landfall occurs on Tuesday.

Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland by late Wednesday morning.

READ MORE: Caught On Camera: Man Arrested After Putting Loaded Gun On Table Pointing At Police Officers

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for:

  • West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for:

  • Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

  • West coast of Florida from Chokoloskee to south of Egmont Key
  • West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee River
  • Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for:

  • West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

  • North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Duck, North Carolina
  • Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in the Florida Keys through Tuesday evening.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

MORE NEWS: Surfside Condo Collapse: Death Toll At 36 After Total Of 8 Bodies Recovered Tuesday

Elsa is the earliest fifth-named storm on record.

Source Article from https://miami.cbslocal.com/2021/07/06/hurricane-elsa-just-offshore-tampa-bay/

Mayoral candidate Eric Adams mingles with supporters during his election night party on June 22 in New York. Adams has won the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City.

Kevin Hagen/AP


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Kevin Hagen/AP

Mayoral candidate Eric Adams mingles with supporters during his election night party on June 22 in New York. Adams has won the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City.

Kevin Hagen/AP

NEW YORK — Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams has won the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City after appealing to the political center and promising to strike the right balance between fighting crime and ending racial injustice in policing.

A former police captain, Adams would be the city’s second Black mayor if elected.

He triumphed over a large field in New York’s first major race to use ranked choice voting.

Adams’ closest vanquished rivals included former city sanitation commissioner Kathryn Garcia, who campaigned as a technocrat and proven problem-solver, and former City Hall legal advisor Maya Wiley, who had progressive support including an endorsement from U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Andrew Yang, the 2020 presidential candidate known for his proposed universal basic income, was an early favorite but faded in the race.

The election used a new system

Voting in the primary ended June 22. Early returns showed Adams in the lead, but New Yorkers had to wait for tens of thousands of absentee ballots to be counted and for rounds of tabulations done under the new ranked choice system.

Under the system, voters ranked up to five candidates for mayor in order of preference. Candidates with too few votes to win were eliminated and ballots cast for them redistributed to the surviving contenders, based on the voter preference, until only two were left.

The city’s first experience with the system in a major election was bumpy. As votes were being tallied on June 29, elections officials bungled the count by inadvertently including 135,000 old test ballots. Erroneous vote tallies were posted for several hours before officials acknowledged the error and took them down.

The mistake had no impact on the final outcome of the race.

A New York City Board of Election staff member counts absentee ballots in the primary election on Friday.

Mary Altaffer/AP


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A New York City Board of Election staff member counts absentee ballots in the primary election on Friday.

Mary Altaffer/AP

Adams focused on a centrist approach

Adams will be the prohibitive favorite in the general election against Curtis Sliwa, the Republican founder of the Guardian Angels. Democrats outnumber Republicans 7-to-1 in New York City.

Adams, 60, is a moderate Democrat who opposed the “defund the police” movement.

“We’re not going to recover as a city if we turn back time and see an increase in violence, particularly gun violence,” Adams said after three people including a 4-year-old girl were shot and wounded in Times Square in May.

“If Black lives really matter, it can’t only be against police abuse. It has to be against the violence that’s ripping apart our communities,” he told supporters the night of the primary.

But Adams is a study in contradictions who at different times has been a defender of Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan, a registered Republican and a Democratic state senator thriving in a world of backroom deals.

Adams speaks frequently of his dual identity as a 22-year police veteran and a Black man who endured police brutality himself as a teenager. He said he was beaten by officers at age 15.

Adams became a police officer in 1984 and rose to the rank of captain before leaving to run for the state Senate in 2006.

While in the police department, he co-founded 100 Blacks in Law Enforcement Who Care, a group that campaigned for criminal justice reform and against racial profiling.

After winning a state Senate seat from Brooklyn in 2006, Adams made an impression with an impassioned speech favoring same-sex marriage rights in 2009, two years before New York’s state legislators passed a marriage equality bill.

He faced a few scandals in the primary race

Adams also weathered a few controversies, including a 2010 report from the state inspector general that faulted his oversight of the bidding process to bring casino gambling to the Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens. Adams had accepted campaign contributions from a politically connected group bidding for the gambling franchise.

Adams was elected in 2013 as Brooklyn borough president, his current job.

Adams is a vegan who credits a plant-based diet with reversing his diabetes. He has a 25-year-old son, Jordan Coleman, with a former girlfriend. His current partner is Tracey Collins, an educator who holds an administrative job in the city’s public school system.

Journalists raised questions during the race about where Adams lived. He was born in Brooklyn, walked the beat there as a cop, owns real estate there and represented it in the state Senate. But he slept in his office in Brooklyn Borough Hall for months during the pandemic and opponents noted that he shares a place with his partner in Fort Lee, New Jersey.

Adams gave reporters a tour of a basement apartment in Brooklyn that he said was his primary residence.

Adams can be a charismatic speaker but has also said cringe-worthy utterances, such as his 1993 suggestion that Herman Badillo, a Puerto Rican-born politician, should have married a Latina instead of a white, Jewish woman.

Speaking at a Martin Luther King Jr. Day event last year, Adams complained about gentrifiers moving to the city from elsewhere.

“Go back to Iowa. You go back to Ohio,” Adams said. “New York City belongs to the people that were here and made New York City what it is.”

Mayor Bill de Blasio, a Democrat, was barred by the city charter from seeking a third term.

Source Article from https://www.npr.org/2021/07/06/1013586197/new-york-city-mayor-race-eric-adams

The Biden administration is launching a new “door-to-door” effort to vaccinate Americans after falling short of its Fourth of July goal of having 70 percent of the adult population with at least one shot of the coronavirus vaccine. 

Amid the administration’s ongoing concerns of a surge of the more contagious Delta variant of the virus, President Biden pitched his plan to boost the vaccinated population during remarks he made on Tuesday. 

“Now we need to go community by community, neighborhood by neighborhood and often times door-to-door- literally knocking on doors, to get help to the remaining people protected from the virus,” Biden said. 

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki also referred to the “door-to-door” effort while listing the five objectives of Biden’s COVID response earlier in the day at Tuesday’s briefing, citing “targeted community door-to-door outreach” to “get remaining Americans vaccinated by ensuring that they have the information they need on how both safe and accessible the vaccine is.” 

Critics were quick to slam the new initiative on social media, including several GOP lawmakers. 

“How about don’t knock on my door. You’re not my parents. You’re the government. Make the vaccine available, and let people be free to choose. Why is that concept so hard for the left?” Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas, reacted to the president. 

HOW DOES THE DELTA VARIANT DIFFER FROM ORIGINAL STRAIN?

“The government now wants to go door-to-door to convince you to get an ‘optional’ vaccine,” Rep. Lauren Bobert, R-Colo., warned. 

“Hell no,” Republican congressional candidate Sean Parnell exclaimed.

“Vaccine education and conversation should be between a doctor and patient, not by a grassroot government door knocker,” physician and Fox News contributor Dr. Nicole Saphier wrote. 

“A lot of people have big government antibodies. Don’t knock on those doors,” Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., wrote. 

“It’s NONE of the governments business knowing who has or hasn’t been vaccinated,” Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Az., similarly expressed. 

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“Whoever suggested that the best way to reach remaining vaccine skeptics was to talk about going door to door should be fired immediately. It’s the Beto O’Rourke of vaccine outreach,” GOP strategist Matt Whitlock knocked the Biden administration. 

“How will the government know who is vaccinated or not for this kind of targeting?” Daily Wire senior editor Ashe Short asked.

Source Article from https://www.foxnews.com/media/biden-admin-door-to-door-coronavirus-vaccines

Hurricane Elsa’s maximum sustained wind speeds have climbed above 75 mph, returning the storm to category 1 hurricane status, according to the National Weather Service.

Shortly before 8 p.m. Tuesday, the storm was churning about 100 miles south-southwest of Tampa, moving north at around 14 mph. Elsa is expected to make landfall on the north Florida Gulf Coast late Wednesday morning.

A tropical storm warning for the Lower Florida Keys has been lifted.

Current forecasts show the storm turning north-northeast early Wednesday, then speed up along the East Coast. “Additional slight strengthening” is possible overnight, the NWS reported.

ELSA LATEST: HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA AFTER STORM THRASHES CUBA, CARIBBEAN

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared states of emergency in 33 counties, and the National Weather Service expanded its warnings and watches into coastal Georgia.

This GOES-16 GeoColor satellite image taken Monday, July 5, 2021, at 4:50 p.m. EDT, and provided by NOAA, shows Tropical Storm Elsa over western Cuba with strong rain and winds. Forecasters say it will move on to the Florida Keys on Tuesday and Florida’s central Gulf coast by Wednesday. (NOAA via AP)

He warned of “hazardous conditions” and said the storm would likely make landfall between 8 and 9 a.m. Wednesday on Florida’s northern Gulf Coast.

In addition to damaging winds and heavy rains, the Miami-based U.S. National Hurricane Center warned of life-threatening storm surges, flooding and isolated tornadoes. A hurricane warning has been issued for a long stretch of coastline, from Egmont Key at the mouth of Tampa Bay to the Steinhatchee River in Florida’s Big Bend area. Landfall was expected somewhere in between.

Shallow coastal areas, including Tampa, could be vulnerable to storm surge, according to experts.

Florida officials were warning residents to wear protective gear and be mindful of snakes and other potentially hazardous animals as they clean up after Tropical Storm Elsa passes through. 

HURRICANE ELSA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY, TRACKING WEST OF SURFSIDE CONDO COLLAPSE: REPORTS

The storm’s passage also raised safety concerns on the opposite coast, where rescuers were still digging into the rubble of the collapsed Champlain Towers South condo complex in Surfside, where at least 36 people were killed and dozens remain unaccounted after the building crumbled on July 24.

Search and rescue crews briefly stopped their efforts as lightning lit up the skies earlier in the day.

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The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Source Article from https://www.foxnews.com/us/tropical-storm-elsa-florida-keys

Florida officials have said they have “significant concerns” regarding the structural integrity of another condominium near the Champlain Towers South building, which collapsed almost two weeks ago, killing at least 36 people.

Charles Burkett, mayor of Surfside, said Tuesday that a review is being conducted into Champlain Towers North, the fallen 12-story condo tower’s sister complex, which is still standing near the rubble.

Burkett told reporters Towers North is “essentially the same building, built by the same developer at the same time, with the same plans, probably with the same materials” as the Towers South building.

“And given we do not know why the first building fell down we have significant concerns about that building and the residents in there,” he said.

The storm could become a hurricane again before making landfall between Tampa Bay and Big Bend and crossing northern Florida, forecasters said.

Officials are working with the Champlain Towers North condominium board to measure the building’s risk of repeating the collapse.

“We’re going to do everything we can,” Burkett said, “to look at those structural systems including ground penetrating radar, the columns, the beams, the slabs, and try to get our arms around what may be happening, what did happen.”

Still, Burkett says he’s still uneasy about the building’s integrity. “We have some concerns, not just some, but deep concerns about that building especially given that we don’t know what has happened there, but our engineer is actively working on it, as our town official is.”

The death toll at Towers South rose to 36 on Tuesday, after eight more victims were discovered. Three children are confirmed to be among the deceased, and 109 people remained unaccounted for.

The recovery effort in Surfside, which is not far from Miami, ramped up on Tuesday due to the threat of severe weather, as Tropical Storm Elsa began lashing Florida. While the storm’s current path looks likely to spare much of the southern part of the state, bands of heavy rain were expected in Surfside as Elsa strengthened.

In late June, following the collapse, the Miami-Dade county mayor, Daniella Levine Cava, ordered all residential buildings at least 40 years old and five stories high or more to be audited.

For Surfside, Burkett said he is currently responding to inquiries from large buildings in the city, and is “advising them that they should do a full structural review of their systems”.

Source Article from https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/06/florida-surfside-condo-concerns-champlain-towers-north-south

The dual questions of how to continue fighting terrorists and safeguard Afghans who worked with American forces after the U.S. withdrawal became more urgent on Friday, as the last U.S. troops left Bagram air base, the largest military base in Afghanistan and the hub of the U.S. war there for nearly two decades. As of Tuesday, the U.S. military had completed 90 percent of the withdrawal, according to U.S. Central Command.

The proposal was on the agenda on Thursday, when Secretary of State Antony Blinken met at the State Department with his counterparts from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the two most likely of the six Central Asian countries U.S. military planners are eying for the scheme, according to a congressional source. Both border Afghanistan and would allow for quicker access to the country than existing U.S. bases in the Middle East and aircraft carriers hundreds of miles away in the Persian Gulf.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also met with the Tajik foreign minister on Friday; Meanwhile, Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan, traveled to those countries in May. Readouts from Blinken’s Friday meetings did not mention the proposal, but noted that the officials agreed ending the Afghanistan conflict would benefit the region.

This would not be the first time the United States has stationed troops in Central Asia to support the Afghan war. After the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, the U.S. military used two bases, one each in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, for Afghanistan operations. Both bases were later shut down amid unrest and pressure by the Kremlin, which has increasingly viewed the U.S. presence in the region with suspicion.

But the prospect of such an agreement with one of the Central Asian states now is unlikely given the sour state of the relationship between Washington and Moscow, which is at one of its lowest points since the Cold War. Many of these countries are dependent on Russia — and to some extent China — for exports as well as military equipment and training. The former Soviet republic states need tacit approval from Moscow to base U.S. troops on their soil, experts say.

“Russia sees the Central Asian States region as its area of influence — and it doesn’t welcome others, particularly the United States, in those areas,” said retired Army Gen. David Petraeus, who commanded forces in Afghanistan under former President Barack Obama.

Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby said even without a presence in Central Asia, the U.S. has an over-the-horizon capability to assist the Afghan military, referring to the bases and U.S. Navy ships in the Gulf.

“There’s not a scrap of earth we can’t hit if we don’t want to,” he said.

A State Department spokesperson declined to comment for this article.

The Central Asian nations’ relationship with Russia makes asking them to play host to thousands of Afghan interpreters and others who helped U.S. forces during the war a tough sell. Russia does not require visas for any of the three countries being looked at for the effort — Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan — so Moscow would have to add border controls for security, said Temur Umarov, a research consultant at the Carnegie Moscow Center. Further, the deteriorating economic situation and latest wave of the pandemic means that the countries are unlikely to agree to accept additional migrants.

The discussions, though, are an “encouraging development,” said Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.), a former Green Beret who is one of a number of lawmakers pressing Biden to evacuate the Afghan interpreters.

“I’m pleased the Biden administration is exploring all options,” Waltz told POLITICO, adding that sending the refugees to Guam is another option. “Time is running out with the Taliban on the march.”

When it comes to basing U.S. troops, Russia will not take kindly to the idea. Take Tajikistan, one of five countries that share a border with Afghanistan. While Dushanbe has a history of working with the United States, including permitting U.S. military planes to refuel at the country’s airports after the 9/11 attacks, relations with Washington today are frosty, Umarov said. President Emomali Rahmon, a controversial figure who has been in power since the early 1990s, has not visited the United States since 2002.

Meanwhile, the Tajik economy is heavily dependent on Russia and China. Remittances from Tajik nationals working in Russia made up more than 20 percent of GDP in 2020; Chinese loans constitute more than 20 percent of GDP and more than half of all external borrowing.

On the military front, Tajikistan is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a military alliance of selected former Soviet states, and already hosts a Russian military base on its territory. China, too, is building a post on the border with Afghanistan.

Russia and China today have every reason to block a move to position U.S forces in Tajikistan, or any other Central Asian country, Umarov said. Twenty years ago after the 9/11 attacks, Moscow and Beijing shared many of Washington’s concerns about terrorism emanating from Afghanistan. But now that threat has ebbed, and the competition between the three powers has only intensified. Russia, in particular, sees U.S. efforts in Afghanistan as yet another way to erode Moscow’s influence, he said.

“There is an understanding between Moscow and Beijing on this question,” Umarov said. “Central Asia will not risk its long-term relations with Russia and China for helping the United States.”

While both Russia and China see risk to regional stability from the U.S. and NATO withdrawal, they also see “opportunities to capitalize on a security vacuum and to position themselves as regional power brokers,” wrote Jeffrey Mankoff, a fellow at National Defense University, and Cyrus Newlin, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in a recent commentary for War on the Rocks.

Among the remaining Afghan neighbors — China, Iran, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan — the options for a U.S. force presence is limited. China and Iran are nonstarters; Imran Khan, the prime minister of Pakistan, last week closed the door in no uncertain terms on the possibility of basing U.S. troops in the country.

Meanwhile, the isolationist Turkmenistan, which Umarov described as the “North Korea of Central Asia,” has shown no interest in cooperating with the United States on the Afghanistan conflict. Further, it is even more economically dependent on Beijing than its neighbors, selling more than 80 percent of its total exports to China and sharing a gas pipeline with the country.

Uzbekistan is the most promising of the countries that share a border with Afghanistan, experts say. Tashkent is far less dependent on Russia and China economically than the other nations, is not a part of the CSTO, and does not host any foreign military bases. Meanwhile, the president, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has rekindled ties with the United States, and even visited Washington recently.

Uzbekistan also has a history of housing U.S. troops. From 2001 to 2005, then-president Islam Karimov leased the Karshi-Khanabad air base to the Americans, and from 2013 to 2016, Tashkent was home to the NATO liaison officer in Central Asia.

But the prospect of hosting U.S. troops in Uzbekistan after the withdrawal will likely be met with heavy resistance from both Moscow and Beijing, as well as from Uzbek society, which views any intervention in the Afghanistan conflict negatively, Umarov said.

Any U.S. basing agreement would require a change in Uzbek law. According to current statute, Uzbekistan cannot host any foreign military base on its territory, he said.

Uzbekistan understands from watching decades of failed U.S. and Soviet attempts to solve the Afghanistan problem that “there is no military solution to the Afghanistan crisis,” Umarov said.

Even if Uzbekistan were to agree to host U.S. troops, the government would likely place limits on how Washington can use the base, for instance restricting operations to unarmed aircraft, Petraeus said. Another issue would be the additional expense for Washington of building up the necessary infrastructure, he added.

The Biden administration could look farther afield, for instance at Kyrgyzstan, which does not share a border with Afghanistan but has a history of hosting U.S. troops. However, like Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan is heavily dependent on remittances from migrant workers in Russia and in debt to China, Umarov said. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan is also part of the CSTO and maintains a Russian military base on its soil.

The U.S. did post forces at the Manas transit center after 9/11, but Kyrgyzstan closed the base in 2014 — around the same time Russia invaded Crimea and tensions with the west soared — due to pressure from Moscow.

The bigger problem for Washington, Umarov said, is the country’s political turmoil. Kyrgyzstan has seen three revolutions in the past 15 years. If the unpredictability continues, the Pentagon may not be able to guarantee the security of U.S. troops on the country’s soil.

Kazakhstan, meanwhile, is an even less palatable option. The country is sandwiched between Russia and China, and is one of Moscow’s closest allies and one of Beijing’s top economic partners in the region. Meanwhile, its distance from Afghanistan — the two countries do not share a border — makes it a less than ideal location to base U.S. troops traveling in and out.

To some extent, Washington may be able to leverage sanctions relief and international recognition in exchange for a deal, for instance helping Uzbekistan achieve its goal of becoming a part of the World Trade Organization.

But overall, the only way for the Biden administration to seal a deal to base U.S. troops in one of the Central Asian states is to prove to them that “the financial and political benefits of this cooperation will outweigh the inevitable losses that the central Asian countries would inevitably sustain as a result of Russia and Beijing’s disapproval,” Umarov said.

“Central Asia cannot be called a priority of U.S. foreign policy,” he continued. “Right now, central Asia understands that the U.S. is not ready to act as a counterbalance to Russia and China in the region, but it needs central Asia for short term interests.”

Source Article from https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/06/putin-biden-post-afghanistan-498311

An Iowa man has been arrested after a rifle and ammunition were found near a window inside his hotel room in downtown Chicago on the Fourth of July, officials said.

A member of the cleaning staff at the W Hotel alerted authorities about firearms he found “in a very suspicious position inside one of the rooms” on Sunday, Chicago Police Superintendent David Brown said Tuesday.

The rifle and handgun, along with five rifle magazines, were found laying on the windowsill of the hotel room on the busy holiday weekend night, Brown said. Prosecutors clarified Tuesday the rifle had four magazines next to it and a live round in the chamber, Chicago ABC station WLS reported.

The hotel overlooks Navy Pier and the lakefront, where hordes of people gather for Fourth of July festivities.

Keegan Casteel, 32, of Ankeny, Iowa, was questioned by the Chicago Police Department’s Joint Terrorism Task Force and arrested without incident. He’s been charged with two felony counts of aggravated unlawful use of a weapon, police said.

Casteel had a court appearance Tuesday and was ordered to be held on a $10,000 bond, according to WLS. If he posts bond, he’ll be allowed to return to Iowa.

The setup echoed the 2017 Las Vegas massacre when a shooter opened fire from the 32nd floor of the Mandalay Bay Hotel onto the Route 91 Harvest music festival on the Las Vegas Strip, killing 60 and wounding hundreds more.

The hotel employee “likely prevented a tragedy from happening,” Brown said.

Police said Casteel does not have a criminal history. He also did not have a Firearms Owner Identification Card in Illinois, Brown said, which is needed to legally have a gun in the state. Casteel does have an Iowa gun permit, prosecutors said.

It’s unclear if Casteel has obtained a lawyer.

“We are also conducting gun tracing of both rifle and the handgun for further investigation. There is no previous criminal history of this person nor any other issues in our federal databases,” Brown said. “Obviously, very concerning given to the position of the W Hotel to Navy Pier.”

Chicago suffered a bloody holiday weekend, with 100 people shot since Friday night, 18 fatally, officials said Tuesday.

In anticipation of the violence, CPD beefed up security measures throughout the city. Overall, 12,00 officials had days off canceled and worked 12-hour shifts in a strategy focusing on 15 violence-prone areas in the city, per WLS.

Source Article from https://abcnews.go.com/US/iowa-man-arrested-firearms-found-chicago-hotel-room/story?id=78693737

After the shooting, Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Ferdinand Grapperhaus, the justice minister, held an emergency meeting with security authorities. This was “an attack on a brave journalist and with that an attack on free journalism,” Mr. Rutte said.

The police said they had arrested three people, one of whom could be the “possible gunman,” but didn’t provide any more information about the suspects. The police did not comment on a motive.

Femke Halsema, the mayor of Amsterdam, called Mr. de Vries “a national hero for all of us,” at a news conference, describing the attack as a “brutish, cowardly crime.” She added that Mr. de Vries was “fighting for his life.”

Amsterdam — as well as other Dutch cities — has been the scene of multiple shootings over the past decade, in which criminals have targeted either each other or those interfering in their crimes. The nearby port of Rotterdam is one of the key gateways for importing cocaine into Europe, and the country is a leader in the illegal production of amphetamines and crystal meth.

“Normally those criminals kill each other, but now they are murdering lawyers and journalists,” said Minke Heino, who passed by the scene of the crime Tuesday night on her red bicycle. “They are acting with impunity. This is next level.”

Source Article from https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/06/world/europe/peter-de-vries-shot-amsterdam.html

Tropical storm warnings, storm surge warnings, and hurricane watches are up for much of Florida’s western coast as Tropical Storm Elsa heads for an expected landfall Wednesday morning in the state’s Big Bend area. At 11 a.m. EDT Tuesday, Elsa was located 65 miles west-northwest of Key West, headed north-northwest at 10 mph with top winds of 60 mph and a central pressure of 1007 mb. Heavy rains and wind gusts in excess of tropical storm force were affecting portions of the Florida Keys: Key West recorded sustained winds of 43 mph, gusting to 59 mph, at 10:02 a.m. EDT. Sand Key, located just west of Key West, reported sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 63 mph, at 9:50 a.m. EDT. Nine personal weather stations in the Weather Underground network in the Key West picked up 4-7” of rain between midnight and 12:30 p.m. EDT Tuesday.

Satellite imagery on Tuesday afternoon revealed that Elsa was lopsided, with the circulation center exposed to view with no heavy thunderstorms on the west side of the center. Strong upper-level winds out of the west were creating a moderate 10-20 knots of wind shear and driving dry air on Elsa’s west side into its core, disrupting the storm. Radar imagery showed that Elsa had built about 50% of an eyewall on the northeast side of the circulation center, but the wind shear and dry air on Elsa’s west side were preventing the storm from closing off a complete circular eyewall and forming an eye.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Elsa at 11:30 a.m. EDT Tuesday, July 6, 2021. (Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB/Colorado State University)

Elsa’s long rampage through the Caribbean

On Monday afternoon, Elsa made landfall in central Cuba with 60 mph winds, and crossed over the country in about eight hours before emerging into the Florida Straits just east of Havana. Elsa weakened to 50 mph winds while crossing Cuba, bringing 24-hour rainfall amounts in excess of 200 mm (eight inches) to two stations. According to teleSUR, Elsa did not severely affect the country.

On Sunday, Elsa passed just north of Jamaica, bringing torrential rains of 3-5 inches to the capital of Kingston. The Jamaica Gleaner reported severe flash flooding and considerable road damage in Jamaica.

On Saturday, Elsa sped along the south coast of Hispaniola, bringing heavy rains and high surf to the coasts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Two people were killed by collapsing walls in the Dominican Republic, weather.com reported; Haiti escaped significant flooding from Elsa. On Friday, Elsa passed through the Lesser Antilles islands as a category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds, killing one person on St. Lucia. Agricultural damage in St. Lucia was estimated at $12.5 million.

Figure 2. Predicted 3-day rainfall for Tropical Storm Elsa through 8 a.m. EDT Friday, July 9, from the National Hurricane Center.

Forecast for Elsa

Elsa is expected to maintain a forward speed of 10-15 mph and gradually perform an arcing turn to the north-northeast over the next day, resulting in a landfall north of Tampa in Florida’s Big Bend region on Wednesday morning. The waters Elsa will traverse are warm, with sea surface temperatures of 29 degrees Celsius (84°F).  Wind shear will be a moderate 10-20 knots, though, which will continue to interfere with development by driving dry air on Elsa’s west side into its circulation. Together, these conditions are favorable only for slow development. The top intensity models on Tuesday morning called for, at most, a five-mph increase in Elsa’s winds before landfall in Florida; the National Hurricane Center predicted a 10-mph increase, putting it at 70 mph at landfall – just below hurricane strength. Their higher intensity forecast may reflect the latest output from the usually-reliable European model, whose 6Z Tuesday run predicted Elsa would have top winds of 70-75 mph at 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday.

Figure 3. Predicted peak wind gust in knots (multiply by 1.15 to convert to mph) for Tropical Storm Elsa through Friday, July 9, from the 6Z Tuesday, July 6, run of the GFS model. Wind gusts in excess of tropical storm-force (34 knots, yellow colors) were predicted to affect much of western Florida and portions of coastal Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. (Image credit: weathermodels.com)

Heavy rains, damaging winds, storm surge flooding, and a few tornadoes for Florida

Elsa is expected to bring all of the dangerous impacts typically seen in a strong tropical storm to western Florida, including flash flooding from 3-5 inches of rain, coastal flooding from a 1- to 4-foot storm surge (and up to 5 feet in Tampa Bay), strong wind gusts in excess of 50 mph, and perhaps also a few tornadoes. On Monday night, a tornado warning was issued for Miami-Dade County based on a radar-detected signature, but no confirmed tornado touched down. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed a large portion of western Florida in their “Slight Risk” area for tornadoes on Tuesday.

Elsa is expected to weaken to a tropical depression as it moves inland over Florida and Georgia on Wednesday, but it could briefly regain tropical-storm status as it moves off the mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday night. Elsa will then accelerate northeastward as a post-tropical cyclone with 40-45 mph winds, affecting Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, Canada, on Friday and Saturday.

Bob Henson contributed to this post.

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Source Article from https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/07/elsa-lashes-the-florida-keys-with-heavy-rain-tropical-storm-force-winds/