Los Angeles County is retaining its mask mandate for vaccinated people even as Orange County, the Inland Empire and San Diego County are set to ease their rules on Feb. 16.
So how soon could L.A. County loosen its mask mandate?
L.A. County is taking a more cautious approach to easing its mask order for vaccinated people, noting that the county is still recording high coronavirus transmission rates.
In fact, L.A. County is not alone in recording high transmission rates — virtually every county in California is still classified by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as having a high transmission rate, colored red in its maps.
So even though the state is easing its mask mandate in many indoor public settings for vaccinated people, transmission rates are still high enough that the CDC recommends that masks continue to be worn in indoor public settings. The CDC suggests masks be worn in indoor public settings when community transmission is “high” or “substantial,” the worst two tiers in its four-level scale, and drops that recommendation when transmission is “moderate.”
While California has set a date for relaxing its indoor masking requirement, some areas will do so swifter than others. Places like L.A. County, for instance, still have their own locally issued mandates on the books — and can keep those in place even after the statewide rules are lifted.
Other counties, including Riverside and San Bernardino, do not have such county-specific rules in place, and confirmed this week that they will abide by the state timeline.
“As we have throughout the pandemic, Riverside County will follow state guidelines dealing with the mask mandate,” Jose Arballo Jr., a spokesman with Riverside University Health System-Public Health, wrote in an email Tuesday. “Numbers continue to decline, which is a positive thing.”
Masks will still be required for unvaccinated residents indoors and for everyone in select settings such as hospitals and nursing homes or while aboard public transit.
L.A. County has outlined two criteria to ease its mask rules in the coming weeks and months.
First, once coronavirus-positive hospitalizations drop below 2,500 for seven straight days, L.A. County will lift mask requirements at outdoor “mega” events, such as as those at the Hollywood Bowl, Dodger Stadium, SoFi Stadium and Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum — as well as outdoor spaces at child-care settings and K-12 schools.
The benchmark was developed in consultation with hospitals in the county, which agreed that they could return to most of their customary operations with fewer than 2,500 coronavirus-positive patients. Hospitals throughout Southern California have been strained during the Omicron surge, with a number of facilities forced to cancel at least some scheduled surgeries and procedures.
L.A. County already won’t be able to meet that threshold in time for Sunday’s Super Bowl at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. But it could come shortly after that. According to data released Tuesday, as of Monday, there were 2,702 coronavirus-positive patients in L.A. County’s hospitals, a 27% decline compared to a week earlier, on Jan. 31, when 3,710 were in hospitals.
But it’s entirely plausible that the mask requirements for outdoor “mega” events could be lifted later this month.
Second, L.A. County’s local indoor mask mandate won’t be lifted until the region records two consecutive weeks at or below “moderate” coronavirus transmission, as defined by the CDC.
Reaching that tier would require the county’s case rate to drop below 50 weekly coronavirus cases per 100,000 people, and for the positive test rate to be less than 8%, for two consecutive weeks.
The county’s threshold matches the recommendations issued by the CDC for when the agency says masks are suggested for indoor public settings.
The positive test rate already fell under 8% last week, and as of Monday, was at 5%.
But L.A. County’s case rate still has a way to go before falling under the goal. To get to the county’s goal, L.A. County would have to be recording roughly 700 new coronavirus cases a day for two consecutive weeks, and the county is still recording about 10,000 new cases a day, about one-quarter the record of 44,000 new cases a day, recorded between Jan. 3 and Jan. 9.
It’s hard to predict how soon L.A. County could reach that goal.
The county saw its case rates fall as the summer Delta surge faded, but the Omicron surge wiped out that progress. Another new, surprise variant could do the same. It’s also possible that coronavirus cases could drop astonishingly fast.
In any event, last winter may hold a guide. L.A. County peaked at about 16,000 new a cases a day in early January 2021, fell to 10,000 cases a day in mid-January, and dropped below 700 cases a day by mid-March, and remained under that number until mid-July, when the Delta surge began.
The latest maps and charts on the spread of COVID-19 in Los Angeles County, including cases, deaths, closures and restrictions.
Although case rates and hospitalizations are declining, deaths are still going up, as it takes time for newly infected people to become severely ill and eventually die.
And health officials warn that with transmission rates still high, people should still take precautions to avoid getting infected, especially those who remain unvaccinated, as well as those who are vulnerable to severe illness should they get a breakthrough infection, such as the elderly and those with underlying health conditions.
L.A. County remains relatively more vulnerable than other parts of the state during the pandemic, such as compared to the Bay Area, because of relatively higher rates of poverty and crowded housing, which can speed transmission of the coronavirus.
California is still recording high daily death figures — up to 179 COVID-19 deaths a day recently, worse than the summer Delta peak of 135 deaths a day, although not as severe as last winter’s peak of 545 deaths a day.
L.A. County is continuing to see its daily death rate climb, now averaging 72 COVID-19 deaths a day over the last week, according to a Times analysis of data released Monday, the highest figure recorded in 11 months.
Tragically, the latest daily death rate is higher than the first two waves at the beginning of the pandemic, a sign of how deadly COVID-19 can continue to be, especially among people who are unvaccinated, who account for most of those who are severely ill and are dying.
In a sign of potentially more seismic moves to come, state officials also announced Monday they are working to update school masking requirements. Currently, everyone on a K-12 campus must wear masks indoors.
The state is still requiring unvaccinated residents to wear masks in indoor public settings.
The CDC has ordered that face masks must be worn by everyone on public transportation, including buses, trains and planes, and at airports.
