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Source Article from https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/weather/hurricane/2022/09/26/hurricane-ian-live-updates-sarasota-manatee-bradenton-track-path-storm-impact-florida-category/8116827001/

After humiliating defeats in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin told his people that the U.S. is bent on destroying the Russian homeland. On Wednesday, he drafted 300,000 reservists and threatened nuclear war. “This is not a bluff,” he said. Ukraine dominated this past week’s annual gathering of the U.N. General Assembly in New York — attended by President Biden and more than 120 world leaders.  Friday, we met the U.S. secretary of state, Antony Blinken, to talk about a world of challenges and Putin’s nuclear threat.    

Scott Pelley: How concerned should Americans be about the prospect of nuclear war?

Antony Blinken: Scott we’ve heard a lot of irresponsible rhetoric coming out of Vladimir Putin, but we’re focused on making sure that we’re all acting responsibly, especially when it comes to this kind of loose rhetoric.  We have– been very clear with– the Russians publicly and– as well as privately to stop the loose talk about nuclear weapons.

Scott Pelley: Privately, the United States has been in communication with the Kremlin about these threats of nuclear war?

Antony Blinken: Yes. It’s very important that Moscow hear from us and know from us that the consequences would be horrific. And we’ve made that very clear. 

Scott Pelley: You call the nuclear talk “loose talk.” But isn’t Vladimir Putin telling us what he’s going to do if he is backed any further into a corner?

Antony Blinken: Vladimir Putin has a clear way out of the war he started and that’s to end it. If Russia stops fighting, the war ends. If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine ends.  

Scott Pelley: Is there anyone in the Kremlin who can tell Vladimir Putin “No” if he decides to launch a battlefield nuclear weapon?

Antony Blinken: They have a chain of command. Whether it works or not– to be seen. But I think what you’re pointing to is a larger challenge. And that is the Achilles heel of autocracies anywhere, there is usually not anyone who has the capacity or the will to speak truth to power, And part of the reason I think– Russia has gotten itself into the mess that it’s in is because there is no one in the system to effectively tell Putin he’s doing the wrong thing.

Scott Pelley: In our interview last week, President Biden told us that he had a message for Vladimir Putin on the use of nuclear weapons. 

President Joe Biden, last week: Don’t, Don’t, Don’t.

Scott Pelley: He went on to say, the U.S. response would be consequential. What did he mean by that?

Antony Blinken: I’m not gonna get into what the consequences would be- any use of nuclear weapons would have catastrophic effects for — of course the country using them– but for many others as well. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken

Scott Pelley: If you can’t give us specifics about a U.S. response, can you tell us that the administration has a plan?

Antony Blinken: We do.

Scott Pelley: Is it a plan that would prevent World War III?

Antony Blinken: President Biden has been determined that as we’re doing everything we can to help the Ukrainians defend themselves, as we’re doing everything we can to rally other countries to put pressure on Russia, we’re also determined that this war not expand, not get broader.

As we were speaking to Secretary Blinken, news broke that a U.N. investigative commission had found evidence of rape and torture of children in Russian-occupied Ukraine. 


Secretary Blinken on U.S. weapons to Ukraine | 60 Minutes

02:25

Scott Pelley: The panel goes on to say, “Based on the evidence gathered by the commission, it has concluded that war crimes have been committed in Ukraine.” What does justice look like for Ukraine?

Antony Blinken: Justice looks like accountability, accountability for those who perpetrated these war crimes, these atrocities, as well as for those who ordered them. And it’s one of the reasons, Scott, why– we’re doing everything we can to support those who are trying to compile the evidence. And to investigate. And ultimately, to prosecute those responsible.

Scott Pelley: To prosecute? You believe there should be war crime trials?

Antony Blinken: I was in Ukraine a couple of weeks ago. One of the places I visited was a city called Irpin, And I saw residential buildings, building block after building block, totally bombed out  this was the totally indiscriminate use of force. wherever the Russian tide recedes, what’s left in its wake is very clear evidence of atrocities and war crimes.

Atrocities were laid before the U.N Security Council last Thursday, drawing from the Russian foreign minister a dubious defense. 

Scott Pelley: When Sergey Lavrov says that, the atrocities have been staged and it is Russia that is the victim, Tony Blinken is sitting there thinking what?

Antony Blinken: This is “Alice in Wonderland.” It’s the world upside down. Up is down, white is black– truth is false. But here’s the thing, Scott. All of these words, all of these words ring totally hollow to every member on the Security Council.  So this spewing of words– is not having an effect. On the contrary, I think it just shows the total disconnect between Russia and virtually the entirety of the rest of the world.


Secretary Blinken on why Ukraine is vital | 60 Minutes

02:52

At the moment we spoke to the secretary, Russia was hurrying through what it calls “elections” to force these areas of Ukraine’s occupied east and south into the Russian Federation.

Antony Blinken: These so-called elections are a sham, period. They go in. They put in puppet governments, local governments. And then they proceed with a vote, which they’ll manipulate in any event in order to try to declare the territory Russian territory. It is not. It will never be recognized as such. And the Ukrainians have every right to take it back.

Blinken came to our interview after meeting China’s foreign minister. China has been raising pressure on the democratic island of Taiwan which, in our conversation last week, President Biden pledged to defend with force. 

Scott Pelley, last week: So unlike Ukraine, to be clear, sir, U.S. Forces, U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion?

President Joe Biden, last week: Yes.

But official U.S. policy is, and has been for decades, to remain ambiguous about defending the island.

Antony Blinken: China has acted increasingly aggressively when it comes to Taiwan. That poses a threat to peace and stability in the entire region.

Scott Pelley: The Chinese foreign minister must have asked you to explain the President’s remarks.

Antony Blinken: Well, we had a conversation about our different approaches– to Taiwan, and I reiterated what– what the President has said, and what he’s said clearly and consistently. Our continued adherence to the– the One China Policy– our determination that– the differences be resolved peacefully– our insistence– that peace and stability be maintained in the Taiwan Straits, and our deep concern that China was taking actions to try to change that status quo. That’s what the issue is.

Blinken warns that turbulence in the Taiwan Strait would wash around the world. 

Antony Blinken: Taiwan itself, were anything to happen, it is where virtually all the semiconductors– are– are made. One of the– one of the reasons we’re now investing so heavily in our own capacity to produce semiconductors here in the United States. We designed them, but the actual production is done in a handful of places, and Taiwan produces most of them if that’s disrupted the effects that that would have on the global economy could be devastating.


Secretary Blinken on Iran sanctions | 60 Minutes

01:43

Last week on 60 Minutes, the president of Iran told Lesley Stahl he would consider re-entering the deal to restrict Iran’s nuclear weapons program. The Trump administration had canceled it. Blinken doubts that Iran is serious.    

Antony Blinken: Iran has continued to try to add extraneous issues to the negotiation that we’re simply not going to say yes to. We will not accept a bad deal, the response that they’ve given to the last proposals put forward by our European partners have been a very significant step backwards. And so, I don’t see any prospects in the very near term to– to bring this to a conclusion. 

Antony Blinken is 60. One of his grandparents was born in Ukraine, his stepfather survived the Holocaust. And his father was a U.S. ambassador. Blinken has spent 30 years in foreign policy for Democrats mostly in the Senate and the White House. He was in the back of the room during the strike on Osama Bin Laden. His philosophy on American diplomacy is robust engagement with what he calls, humility and confidence.

Antony Blinken: If we don’t engage, if we’re not leading, then one of two things, either someone else is and probably not in a way that’s gonna advance our interests and values, or no one is, and then you tend to have chaos. You get a vacuum that’s filled by bad things before it’s filled with good things. Because the world does not organize itself. There’s not a single big problem that’s affecting the lives of our citizens that we can effectively solve alone. Whether it’s climate, whether it’s COVID, whether it’s the effect of all of these emerging technologies on our lives, we have to be working with others to try to shape all of this in a way that’s actually gonna make our people, as well as other people, a little bit more secure, a little bit more prosperous, a little bit more full of opportunity.

Scott Pelley: Given January 6th, given the fabricated controversy over the election results, do you find that countries around the world are worried about the stability of the United States?

Antony Blinken: It’s no secret that we have challenges within our own democracy. They’re playing out before the entire world. We don’t sweep them under the rug, even when it’s painful. So I’m able to say to other countries that bring these up, yes, we’ve got our problems, but we’re confronting them. We’re dealing with them. You might do the same thing.

Scott Pelley: Your father was U.S. ambassador to Hungary.  And as we sit here on Friday afternoon, he passed away last night. And I wonder why you decided to keep such a busy schedule the day after that tragedy in your family. 

Antony Blinken: My dad was 96 years old. He was in so many ways my role model.  he built a remarkable business, one of the leading investment banks in this country over many years, He led a life of dignity, of decency, of modesty that is something I’ve very much aspired to. And so I– I guess I thought that — honoring everything that he shared with me, the best way to do that was to continue doing my job.

That job, for the foreseeable future, will be consumed with a question that has defeated generations of diplomats—how to keep a small war in Europe from igniting the world.

Scott Pelley: Are there any talks currently that we may not have heard about?

Antony Blinken: There are no talks because Russia has not demonstrated any willingness in this moment to engage in meaningful discussions. If and when that changes, we will do everything we can to support a diplomatic process.

Scott Pelley: Is Vladimir Putin losing this war?

Antony Blinken: He’s already lost in terms of what he was trying to achieve. Because keep in mind, what he said very clearly from the start is, his objective was to erase Ukraine’s identity as an independent country, that has already failed. Ukrainians are fighting for their own land. They’re fighting for their own country. The Russians are not. And these Russian soldiers who are being thrown into this conflict, often not knowing where they’re going or what they’re doing– this is not something that they want to be fighting for. The Ukrainians are fighting for their own future. They’re fighting for their own land. They’re fighting for their own lives.

Produced by Aaron Weisz and Pat Milton. Associate producer, Ian Flickinger. Broadcast associate, Michelle Karim. Edited by April Wilson. Thanks to Pamela Falk, CBS News.

Source Article from https://www.cbsnews.com/news/secretary-of-state-antony-blinken-60-minutes-interview-2022-09-25/

ROME, Sept 26 (Reuters) – The right-wing alliance that won Italy’s national election will usher in a rare era of political stability to tackle an array of problems besieging the euro zone’s third largest economy, one of its senior figures said on Monday.

Giorgia Meloni looks set to become Italy’s first woman prime minister at the head of its most right-wing government since World War Two after leading the conservative alliance to triumph at Sunday’s election.

“I expect that for at least five years we will press ahead without any changes, without any twists, prioritising the things we need to do,” said Matteo Salvini, leader of the League party that is one of the main allies of Meloni’s Brothers of Italy.

Near final results showed the rightist bloc, which also includes Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, should have a solid majority in both houses of parliament, potentially ending years of upheaval and fragile coalitions.

The result is the latest success for the right in Europe after a breakthrough for the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats in an election this month and advances made by the National Rally in France in June.

Meloni plays down her party’s post-fascist roots and portrays it as a mainstream group like Britain’s Conservatives. She has pledged to back Western policy on Ukraine and not take risks with Italy’s fragile finances.

Meloni, who has spoken out against what she calls “the LGBT lobby” and mass immigration, struck a conciliatory tone in her victory speech in the early hours of Monday.

“If we are called on to govern this nation we will do it for all the Italians, with the aim of uniting the people and focusing on what unites us rather than what divides us,” she told cheering supporters. “This is a time for being responsible.”

TOUGH INHERITANCE

Meloni and her allies face a daunting list of challenges, including soaring energy prices, war in Ukraine and a renewed slowdown in the euro zone’s third-largest economy.

Her coalition government, Italy’s 68th since 1946, is unlikely to be installed before the end of October and Prime Minister Mario Draghi remains at the head of a caretaker administration for now.

Despite the talk of stability, Meloni’s alliance is split on some highly sensitive issues that might be difficult to reconcile once in government.

Draghi, the former head of the European Central Bank, pushed Rome to the centre of EU policy-making during his 18-month stint in office, forging close ties with Paris and Berlin.

In Europe, the first to hail Meloni’s victory were hard-right opposition parties in Spain and France, and Poland and Hungary’s national conservative governments which both have strained relations with Brussels.

Salvini questions the West’s sanctions against Russia and both he and Berlusconi have often expressed their admiration for its leader, Vladimir Putin.

The allies also have differing views on how to deal with surging energy bills and have laid out a raft of promises, including tax cuts and pension reform, that Italy will struggle to afford.

With results counted in more than 97% of polling stations, the Brothers of Italy led with more than 26% over the vote, up from just 4% in the last national election in 2018, supplanting the League as the driving force on the right.

The League took only around 9%, down from more than 17% four years ago, but despite the relatively low score, Salvini said he would stay on as party leader. Berlusconi’s Forza Italia scored around 8%.

Centre-left and centrist parties won more votes than the right but were penalised by an electoral law that rewards broad alliances. Enrico Letta, the head of the main opposition party, the Democratic Party, announced he would stand down as leader.

Despite its clear-cut result, the vote was not a ringing endorsement for the right bloc. Turnout was just 64% against 73% four years ago – a record low in a country that has historically had strong voter participation.

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Source Article from https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/giorgia-melonis-right-triumphs-italys-election-2022-09-26/

Two high-ranking Russian lawmakers on Sunday criticized those carrying out Russian President Vladimir Putin’s move last week to draw up some 300,000 reservists to fight in Ukraine.

Valentina Matviyenko, who chairs Russia’s upper legislative chamber the Federation Council, wrote in a Telegram post that she was aware of men who are ineligible to fight in the war getting called up to serve, according to Reuters.

“Such excesses are absolutely unacceptable,” said Matviyenko, a close Putin ally. “I consider it absolutely right that they are triggering a sharp reaction in society.”

Another Putin ally, Vyacheslav Volodin, the Speaker of Russia’s lower chamber the State Duma, said he was also receiving complaints and that “if mistake is made, it is necessary to correct it.”

“Authorities at every level should understand their responsibilities,” he wrote in a Telegram post, per Reuters.

Putin announced the partial mobilization order last week after a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive pushed back Russian troops in the northeast of the country.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the order applies to reservists who previously served in the military or had special skills, but Putin’s decree is broad and anyone up to the age of 65 is considered a reservist.

The president’s order drew widespread protests on the day it was issued, and on Saturday, at least 1,300 Russian protesters were detained across 40 cities. Thousands of Russians have also been attempting to flee the country.

On Saturday, Putin signed a new bill that toughens punishments for soldiers who disobey officers, desert the army or surrender in combat.

Along with the top Russian lawmakers, state-controlled news station RT expressed concern about military conscription offices “driving people mad” by rounding up Russians who should not be drafted.

According to RT, Putin signed another order exempting university and vocational students from being drafted.

In his nationally televised address last week, Putin also gave his backing to referendums in Russian-occupied regions in Ukraine, which the West has called a “sham” and pretext for illegal annexation by Moscow.

The Kremlin reportedly began administering referendum votes in the Ukrainian regions of Kherson, as well as the southern Zaporizhzhia and the eastern Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Source Article from https://thehill.com/policy/international/3660427-top-russian-lawmakers-slam-excesses-of-putins-war-mobilization/

A fifth member of an Iranian volunteer paramilitary group died Sunday after clashing with what state media called “rioters and thugs,” as the country’s President Ebrahim Raisi warned that protesters would be dealt with “decisively” after days of nationwide unrest.

The person died from injuries sustained on Thursday in Urmia city in northwest Iran, Iranian state news agency IRNA said. Other members of Basij, a paramilitary organization connected to the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have been killed in Qazvin, Tabriz, Mashhad and Qouchan.

The protests have been sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman detained by morality police on September 13 accused of violating the country’s conservative dress code.

Hundreds of anti-government demonstrators returned to the streets of Tehran and dozens of other provincial towns as darkness fell on Sunday, despite claims by state-run news agencies that pro-government rallies have put an end to the protests.

The protesters organized themselves despite a crackdown by security forces, arrests of protesters and internet disruption. Protesters chanted anti-government and anti-Supreme Leader slogans, as well as “death to dictator,” while venting their anger against the Basij militias.

Since Friday, demonstrations have taken place in at least 40 cities nationwide, including the capital Tehran, with protesters demanding an end to violence and discrimination against women as well as an end to compulsory wearing of the hijab.

At least 35 people have died in Iran in recent protests over the death of Amini, state media outlet the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) said late on Friday.

Amnesty International previously said that 30 people had died. CNN cannot independently verify the death toll – a precise figure is impossible for anyone outside the Iranian government to confirm – and different estimates have been given by opposition groups, international rights organizations and local journalists.

Iran’s sweeping internet blackouts are a serious cause for concern

At least 1,200 people have been arrested in connection with the wave of protests, Iranian state-backed news agency Tasmin reported Saturday, citing a security official. The IRGC has accused the protesters of “rioting” and “vandalism,” and called on the police to “protect the security of the nation.”

At least 17 journalists have been arrested in Iran as anti-state protests spread across the country, according to a report from the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), a non-profit that monitors press freedom.

Iranian authorities say they will restrict internet access in the country until calm is restored to the streets. Meanwhile, the IRGC, the elite wing of the Iranian military that was established in the aftermath of the country’s revolution in 1979, has asked all people to identify protesters, the country’s semi-official news agency Fars News said.

On Sunday, hundreds of thousands of Iranians held pro-government rallies in many cities in Iran to condemn the recent unrest, state news IRNA reported.

People took to the streets in many cities and towns, including the holy city of Mashhad, the northwestern city of Qazvin, the central city of Esfahan as well as the western cities of Hamedan and Yasuj, to show their “unity and outrage over the recent acts of sabotage perpetrated by rioters,” state news added.

According to Press TV, the demonstrators “condemned the crimes and evil acts committed by a handful of mercenaries serving foreign enemies, who set fire to the Holy Qur’an, mosques, and the national flags and forcefully removed women’s headscarves on the streets.”

Decades of repression

Authorities hope that by restricting the internet they can control the protests – the latest in a wave that has swept Iran in recent years. They started with the Green movement in 2009 over contested election results and more recently the 2019 protests sparked by a rise in fuel prices. Hundreds were believed to have been killed in the violent crackdown three years ago and thousands injured, according to estimates released by the UN and rights groups.

But this year’s protests are different – in their scope, scale and unprecedented feminist nature. There is also mobilization across the socio-economic divide. A young generation of Iranians are rising up on the streets against decades of repression – arguably bolder than ever.

The demonstrations have spread to dozens of Iranian cities, from the Kurdish region in the northwest, to the capital Tehran and even more traditionally conservative cities like Mashhad.

While they were ignited by the death of Amini, the initial calls for accountability have turned into demands for more rights and freedoms, especially for women who for decades since the 1979 Islamic Revolution have faced discrimination and severe restrictions on their rights.

But calls for regime change are growing too. People across the country are chanting for “death to the dictator,” in a reference to the Supreme Leader, tearing down portraits of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Remarkable images emerged on Friday night from Khamenei’s birthplace in the city of Mashhad, where protesters set fire to the statue of a man considered one of the symbols of the Islamic Revolution. Such scenes were unthinkable in the past.

This is all happening at a time when Iran’s hardline leadership is under growing pressure with talks to revive the stalled 2015 nuclear agreement and the state of the economy under US sanctions; ordinary Iranians are struggling to cope with soaring levels of inflation.

While these protests are the biggest challenge for the government for years, analysts believe the government will likely move to contain them by resorting to the heavy-handed tactics it has used in the past. There are signs a brutal crackdown is coming, along with the internet restrictions on a level not seen since 2019. Other measures include the government mobilizing its supporters in mass rallies following Friday prayers; officials dismissing the demonstrators as rioters and foreign agents, and ominous warnings the army and powerful Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps will be deployed to deal with the protests.

Source Article from https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/25/middleeast/mahsa-amini-death-iran-intl/index.html

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — An overnight drone strike near the Ukrainian port of Odesa sparked a massive fire and explosion, the military said Monday, as Russia’s leadership faced growing resistance to its efforts to call up hundreds of thousands of men to fight in Ukraine.

The airstrike on Odesa was the latest in a series of drone attacks on the key southern city in recent days, and hit a military installation and detonated ammunition when it struck. Firefighters were struggling to contain the blaze, and civilians nearby were evacuated, the Ukrainian military’s southern command said.

It came hours after the United States vowed to take decisive action and promised “catastrophic consequences” if Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Concerns are growing that Russia may seek to escalate the conflict once it completes what Ukraine and the West see as illegal referendums in parts of Ukraine under its control.

The voting, which ends Tuesday, happened after thousands of residents had fled and has included images of armed Russian troops going door-to-door to pressure Ukrainians into casting a ballot. Russia announced the “referendums” as its war on Ukraine has bogged down amid a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

“Every night and day there is inevitable shelling in the Donbas, under the roar of which people are forced to vote for Russian ‘peace,’” Donetsk regional governor Pavlo Kirilenko said Monday.

Russia is widely expected to declare the results in its favor, a step that could see Moscow annex the territory and give it the pretext to defend it as its own territory under the Russian nuclear umbrella.

Jake Sullivan, the U.S. national security adviser, said Russia would pay a high, if unspecified, price if it made good on veiled threats to use nuclear weapons in the conflict.

“If Russia crosses this line there will be catastrophic consequences for Russia. The United States will respond decisively,” he told NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday.

On Monday, Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko held an unannounced meeting in the southern Russian city of Sochi and said they were ready to cooperate with the West — “if they treat us with respect,” Putin said.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Monday that Putin had told Turkey’s president during their meeting in Uzbekistan last week that Moscow was ready to resume negotiations with Ukraine but had “new conditions” for a cease-fire. The minister didn’t elaborate on the conditions.

The Kremlin last week announced a partial mobilization to add at least 300,000 troops to its force in Ukraine in the run-up to the votes in the occupied regions. The move, a sharp shift from Vladimir Putin’s previous efforts to portray the war as a limited military operation that wouldn’t interfere with most Russians’ lives, proved extremely unpopular at home.

Thousands of men of fighting age flocked to airports and Russia’s land border crossings in an effort to avoid being called up. Protests sparked in various parts of the country, and Russian media reported an increasing number of arson attacks on military enlistment offices, including one that hit the southern city of Uryupinsk.

In a separate, unusually bold attack, a young man entered a military enlistment office Monday in the Siberian city of Ust-Ilimsk and shot the military commandant at close range.

Russian media reports claimed the man walked into the facility saying “no one will go to fight” and “we will all go home now.” Local authorities said the military commandant was in intensive care, without elaborating.

The man, identified in the media as 25-year-old local resident Ruslan Zinin, was reportedly upset that a call-up notice was served to his best friend who didn’t have any combat experience –- which the authorities have said is the main criteria for the draft.

Meanwhile, the first batches of Russian troops mobilized by Moscow have begun to arrive at military bases, the British military said Monday.

In an online intelligence briefing, the British Defense Ministry said tens of thousands had been called up so far. However, the Russians face challenges ahead, the ministry said.

“The Russian military provides low-level, initial training to soldiers within their designated operational units, rather than in dedicated training establishments,” it said.

Under normal circumstances, two battalions deploy while a third remains behind to train. But in the Ukraine war, even the third battalion is deploying, weakening that training, the British Defense Ministry said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday said the Russian mobilization — its first such call-up since World War II — was a sign of weakness: “They admitted that their army is not able to fight with Ukraine anymore.”

Zelenskyy said in a Facebook post Monday that the Ukrainian military is pushing efforts to take back “the entire territory of Ukraine,” and has drawn up plans to counter “new types of weapons” used by Russia, without elaborating.

New Russian shelling struck the area around the Zaporozhzhia nuclear power plant, according to Zelenskyy’s office. Cities near the station were fired on nine times in recent hours by rocket launchers and heavy artillery.

In the town of Izium in eastern Ukraine, which Russian forces left earlier this month after a Ukrainian counteroffensive, Margaryta Tkachenko is still reeling from the battle that destroyed her home and left her family close to starvation.

With no gas, electricity, running water or internet, she said, “I can’t predict what will happen next. Winter is the most frightening. We have no wood. How will we heat?”

___

Yuras Karmanau in Tallinn, Estonia, and Lori Hinnant in Izium, Ukraine, contributed to this report.

___

Follow the AP’s coverage of the war at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

Source Article from https://apnews.com/4da81981f2b8b198ea374c703e3f988d

KYIV, Sept 26 (Reuters) – Voting in referendums in Ukraine aimed at annexing territory to Russia enters a fourth day on Monday, after the United States warned of “catastrophic consequences” if Moscow used nuclear weapons to protect any annexed regions.

The votes in four eastern Ukrainian regions, which Kyiv and the West regard as a sham, saw Russian-backed officials carry ballot boxes from door to door, accompanied by security officials, said Luhansk’s regional governor.

Serhiy Gaidai said residents’ names were taken down if they failed to vote correctly or refused to cast a ballot.

“A woman walks down the street with what looks like a karaoke microphone telling everyone to take part in the referendum,” the governor added in an interview posted online.

“Representatives of the occupation forces are going from apartment to apartment with ballot boxes. This is a secret ballot, right?”

Russian forces control territory in the four regions that represents about 15% of Ukraine, or roughly the size of Portugal. It would add to Crimea, an area nearly the size of Belgium, that Russia claims to have annexed in 2014.

Russia’s parliament could move to formalise the annexations within days.

By incorporating the areas of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia into Russia, Moscow could portray efforts to retake them as attacks on Russia itself, a warning to Kyiv and its Western allies.

U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the United States would respond to any Russian use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine and had spelled out to Moscow the “catastrophic consequences” it would face.

“If Russia crosses this line, there will be catastrophic consequences for Russia,” Sullivan told NBC’s “Meet the Press” television program on Sunday.

“The United States will respond decisively.”

The latest U.S. warning followed Wednesday’s thinly veiled nuclear threat by President Vladimir Putin, who said Russia would use any weapons to defend its territory.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made the point more directly at a news conference on Saturday.

He was speaking after a speech to the U.N. General Assembly in New York, in which he repeated Moscow’s false claims to justify the invasion that the elected government in Kyiv was illegitimately installed and filled with neo-Nazis.

Asked if Russia would have grounds for using nuclear weapons to defend annexed regions, Lavrov said Russian territory, including that “further enshrined” in Russia’s constitution in the future, was under the “full protection of the state”.

In an interview broadcast on Sunday, British Prime Minister Liz Truss told CNN, “We should not be listening to his (Putin’s) sabre-rattling and his bogus threats.

“Instead, what we need to do is continue to put sanctions on Russia and continue to support the Ukrainians.”

FIGHTING

Heavy fighting saw more than 40 towns hit by Russian shelling, Ukraine officials said on Monday.

In the 24 hours to Monday morning, Russian forces launched five missile and 12 air strikes, as well as more than 83 attacks from multiple rocket-propelled grenades, the general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said.

More than 40 settlements in all were affected by enemy fire, mostly in southern and southeast Ukraine.

Two drones launched by Russian forces into Ukraine’s Odesa region hit military objects, causing a fire and setting off ammunition, Ukraine’s southern command said on Monday.

“As a result of a large-scale fire and the detonation of ammunition, the evacuation of the civilian population was organised,” it said on messaging app Telegram.

“Preliminarily, there have been no casualties.”

Countering Russian attacks, Ukraine’s air forces launched 33 strikes, hitting 25 “enemy” areas, the general staff added.

Reuters could not independently verify the accounts.

PROTESTS IN RUSSIA OVER DRAFT

On Wednesday, Putin ordered Russia’s first military mobilization since World War Two, unleashing protests across Russia and sending many men of military age fleeing.

On Sunday, two of Russia’s most senior lawmakers tackled a string of mobilisation complaints, ordering regional officials to swiftly solve “excesses” that stoked public anger.

More than 2,000 people have been detained across Russia for protests at the draft, says independent monitoring group OVD-Info. With criticism of the conflict banned, the demonstrations were among the first signs of discontent since the war began.

In Russia’s Muslim-majority southern region of Dagestan, police clashed with protesters, leading to the detention of at least 100 people.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy acknowledged the Russian protests in a Sunday video address.

“Keep on fighting so that your children will not be sent to their deaths – all those that can be drafted by this criminal Russian mobilisation,” he said.

“Because if you come to take away the lives of our children – and I am saying this as a father – we will not let you get away alive.”

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Source Article from https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/shelling-hits-southern-ukraine-russia-un-spotlight-over-escalation-2022-09-25/

A strengthening Tropical Storm Ian was expected to intensify into a hurricane on Monday — and possibly into a high-end Category 4 storm as early as midweek this week.

State of play: Ian was some 355 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba at 2am ET, and its maximum sustained winds had strengthened to 70 mph, up from 45 mph Sunday afternoon, according to the National Hurricane Center. A storm is classified as a hurricane when its maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph.

Photo: NWS Miami/Twitter

Details: A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman and several Cuban provinces, as the storm moved to the northwest at 13 mph.

  • A tropical storm warning has been issued for the lower Florida Keys, from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West to Dry Tortugas, as well as several provinces in Cuba.
  • A tropical storm watch was in effect for Englewood southward to Chokoloskee in Florida, and the Caribbean islands of Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

The big picture: President Biden declared a federal state of emergency for multiple Florida counties on Saturday night, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for the entire state.

What to watch: In its 2am update, the National Hurricane Center said Ian was expected to become a hurricane Monday morning and a “major hurricane” by Tuesday.

  • “Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night and early Tuesday,” the agency said.
  • The National Hurricane Center forecast two to four inches of rainfall from the Florida Keys into the southern and central Florida Peninsula from Monday through Wednesday morning.

Threat level: Studies show an increase in the occurrence of rapid intensification due to human-caused climate change.

  • The western Caribbean Sea is a powder keg for hurricanes right now, with high ocean heat content and weak upper-level winds.
Tropical Storm Ian’s latest projected track, issued at 2am ET Monday by the National Hurricane Center. Image: NOAA

What they’re saying: Even if the west coast of Florida doesn’t sustain a direct hit from Ian, “it doesn’t take an onshore or direct hit from a hurricane to pile up the water,” acting NHC director Jamie Rhome said in a Sunday briefing.

  • He urged Florida residents to find out if they’re in a likely evacuation zone at FloridaDisaster.org in case evacuations are ordered.

What’s next: The key questions facing forecasters, public officials and tens of millions of residents along the Gulf Coast are where the storm will head once it becomes a hurricane, and how strong it will be once it gets there.

  • The computer models have been diverging, with some showing a landfall in northwestern Florida or perhaps southeastern Alabama. Others show a hit much farther east, closer to Tampa.
  • Forecast trends since Friday have nudged the most likely track of the center of Ian to the west, closer to the Panhandle region of Florida.
  • While the likelihood of significant impacts in South Florida has decreased, it has not entirely disappeared, and the Hurricane Center is urging all Floridians to prepare for storm impacts.

Context: Human-caused climate change is altering the characteristics of nature’s most powerful storms.

  • For example, sea level rise from melting ice sheets makes a hurricane’s storm surge more harmful.

This story has been updated with the storm’s strengthening and the latest estimates of when the storm is expected to become a hurricane.

Source Article from https://www.axios.com/2022/09/25/hurricane-ian-intensifies-florida-threat

Earlier this year she outlined her priorities in a raucous speech to Spain’s far-right Vox party: “Yes to the natural family, no to the LGBT lobby, yes to sexual identity, no to gender ideology… no to Islamist violence, yes to secure borders, no to mass migration… no to big international finance… no to the bureaucrats of Brussels!”

Source Article from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63029909

Instead, at this concert, John acknowledged a different Republican, former first lady Laura Bush, who had come with daughter Jenna Bush Hager and her children, saying that the Bush administration’s creation of the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, or PEPFAR, “was the most incredible thing,” adding, “We never would have got this far without the President Bush administration giving us that money.” He even gave a shout-out to Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) as a supporter in the fight against AIDS, who, said John, “to his credit has always come through.”

Source Article from https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2022/09/25/elton-john-white-house-biden/

  • Rep. Nancy Mace says there’s “a lot of pressure” on Republicans to impeach President Biden.
  • On NBC’s Meet The Press, Mace said impeachment is being considered by some in the GOP.
  • She told host Chuck Todd that if the party chooses to hold a vote, she believes it will be divisive.

Rep. Nancy Mace says there’s pressure on Republicans to vote to impeach President Biden if the party wins the midterms and gains control of the House. 

Mace was on NBC’s Meet The Press on Sunday, speaking with host Chuck Todd who asked: “Do you expect an impeachment vote against President Biden if Republicans take over the House?”

The South Carolina congresswoman answered, “there’s a lot of pressure on Republicans to have that vote, to put that legislation forward. I think that is something that some folks are considering.”

To which Todd responded, simply: “Wow.”

On Wednesday, Rep. Adam Kinzinger said a GOP-majority Congress might try to impeach the president every week. Kinzinger was referring to Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has made impeaching Biden part of her official platform.

Last year, several Republicans filed impeachment articles criticizing Biden’s withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, his immigration policies, and his administration’s eviction moratorium.

When asked by Todd how she would vote if impeachment was on the floor, Mace said she would look at the evidence and vote constitutionally. 

“I will not vote for impeachment of any president if I feel that due process has been stripped away for anyone,” she told Todd. 

Mace said if the party chooses to hold this vote, she believes it will be divisive. “Which is why I pushed back on it personally when I hear folks saying they’re going to file articles of impeachment in the House,” she said.

While Mace voted against impeaching former President Donald Trump, she was critical of his role on January 6, telling CNN that Trump’s “entire legacy was wiped out” in the aftermath of the Capitol riots.

Before January 6, Mace was a supporter of Trump’s and even worked for his campaign in 2016.

During the interview with NBC, Todd asked the congresswoman if she would back Trump’s presidential bid in 2024.

“I’m going to support whomever Republicans nominate in ’24,” she said.

Representatives for Mace did not immediately respond to Insider’s request for comment.

Source Article from https://www.businessinsider.com/nancy-mace-pressure-on-republicans-to-impeach-biden-impeachment-congress-2022-9

New Orleans is taking desperate measures to combat its soaring slay rate amid a severe police staffing shortage — including hiring civilians to send out to crime scenes to gather evidence.

Civilians also will replace at least some cops currently on administrative duty so that the officers can head back to the mean streets of the Big Easy — now the murder capital of the US, Fox News reported Sunday.

“The goal is for our officers to feel safe so they can make our citizens and visitors feel safe,” New Orleans Police Superintendent Shaun Ferguson said at a press conference last week, Fox said.

In addition to hiring civilian specialists to monitor phones and perform administrative duties, about 50 to 75 will be enlisted to respond to some minor calls — and even trained to do some detective work, the top cop said.

“As we take calls over the phone, there may be some evidence that needs to be collected with that call,” Ferguson said. “We’ll have civilian investigators to go out and collect that evidence instead of an officer having to go out there and collect that evidence.”

The moves come after New Orleans recently passed St. Louis as the nation’s murder capital, with a 78% spike in homicides this year as of Sept. 11 and a 121% jump in homicides over 2019, the network reported.

Civilians will replace some cops currently on administrative duty.
AP
New Orleans is now considered the nation’s murder capital.
Bloomberg via Getty Images

The department, which lost 150 cops from its ranks last year, is urging past police applicants who were rejected to give it another try.

“My message to you,” Ferguson said, “to those of you [who] may have been disqualified in the past, I’m urging you to resubmit your application because some of our hiring criteria have changed.”

Source Article from https://nypost.com/2022/09/25/new-orleans-to-use-civilians-as-crime-scene-detectives-amid-slay-spike/

Tropical Storm Ian was strengthening Sunday night, and it is forecast to intensify more rapidly Monday and Tuesday — possibly into a high-end Category 4 storm as early as midweek this week.

State of play: Tropical Storm Ian was some 390 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba at 11pm ET, and its maximum sustained winds had strengthened to 65 mph, up from 45 mph Sunday afternoon, according to the National Hurricane Center. It was moving to the northwest at 13 mph.

  • A tropical storm warning has been issued for the lower Florida Keys and a tropical storm watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida.

The big picture: President Biden declared a federal state of emergency for multiple Florida counties on Saturday night, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for the entire state.

What to watch: In its 11pm update, the National Hurricane Center said Ian was expected to become a hurricane Monday and a “major hurricane” on Tuesday before hitting western Cuba.

  • The National Hurricane Center forecast two to four inches of rainfall from the Florida Keys into the southern and central Florida Peninsula from Monday through Wednesday morning.

Threat level: Studies show an increase in the occurrence of rapid intensification due to human-caused climate change.

  • The western Caribbean Sea is a powder keg for hurricanes right now, with high ocean heat content and weak upper-level winds.
Tropical Storm Ian’s latest projected track, issued at 11pm ET Sunday by the National Hurricane Center. Image: NOAA

What they’re saying: Even if the west coast of Florida doesn’t sustain a direct hit from Ian, “it doesn’t take an onshore or direct hit from a hurricane to pile up the water,” acting NHC director Jamie Rhome said in a Sunday briefing.

  • He urged Florida residents to find out if they’re in a likely evacuation zone at FloridaDisaster.org in case evacuations are ordered.

What’s next: The key questions facing forecasters, public officials and tens of millions of residents along the Gulf Coast are where the storm will head once it becomes a hurricane, and how strong it will be once it gets there.

  • The computer models have been diverging, with some showing a landfall in northwestern Florida or perhaps southeastern Alabama. Others show a hit much farther east, closer to Tampa.
  • Forecast trends since Friday have nudged the most likely track of the center of Ian to the west, closer to the Panhandle region of Florida.
  • While the likelihood of significant impacts in South Florida has decreased, it has not entirely disappeared, and the Hurricane Center is urging all Floridians to prepare for storm impacts.

Context: Human-caused climate change is altering the characteristics of nature’s most powerful storms.

  • For example, sea level rise from melting ice sheets makes a hurricane’s storm surge more harmful.

This story has been updated with the storm’s strengthening and the latest estimates of when the storm is expected to become a hurricane.

Source Article from https://www.axios.com/2022/09/25/hurricane-ian-intensifies-florida-threat

For months, administration officials have said they could think of almost no circumstances in which a nuclear detonation by Russia would result in a nuclear response. But there has been discussion of several non-nuclear military responses — using conventional weapons, for example, against a base or unit from which the attack originated, or giving the Ukrainian forces the weaponry to launch that counterattack. In the minds of many officials, any use of nuclear weapons would require a forceful military response.

But many of the options under discussion also involve nonmilitary steps, casting Mr. Putin as an international pariah who broke the nuclear taboo for the first time in 77 years. It would be a chance, some officials say, to bring China and India, along with much of Asia and Africa, into the effort to impose sanctions on Russia, cutting off some of the biggest markets that remain for its oil and gas.

Mr. Putin’s nuclear threats have hung over the war from its opening days, when he publicly ordered that nuclear forces be placed on a heightened alert status. (There is no evidence it ever happened.) More recently the shelling, apparently by Russian forces, of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has raised the specter of deliberately turning a commercial facility into a potential dirty bomb. Shelling near the plant has continued in recent days, though the reactors have now been shut down, lowering the risk of a runaway nuclear accident.

On Wednesday, for the first time in more than six months, Mr. Putin revived his nuclear threats, saying he could use all arms available to him in the war — remarks interpreted by officials in both Russia and the West as a veiled threat about the use of nuclear weapons.

“If Russia feels its territorial integrity is threatened, we will use all defense methods at our disposal, and this is not a bluff,” he said. “Those who are trying to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the winds can also turn in their direction.”

Mr. Sullivan said in several interviews that he was taking Mr. Putin’s nuclear threats seriously — saying at one point that the United States was preparing for “every contingency” in the conflict and working to deter Russia from using nuclear weapons.

Source Article from https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/25/us/politics/us-russia-nuclear.html

North Korea fired a second ballistic missile into the sea on Sunday ahead of a visit from Vice President Kamala Harris to the South Korean capital.

Kim Jong Un’s regime fired its first missile off of its east coast on Saturday as the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier entered the region. The country frequently uses missile tests as a show of force. Harris will visit Seoul later this week as the U.S. and South Korean militaries hold joint drills.

Prior to Saturday’s launch, North Korea had not fired a ballistic missile since June. Sunday’s launch was relatively short-range, with South Korea tracking the missile as it traveled just under 400 miles at a speed of Mach 5, according to Reuters.

“North Korea’s launch of a ballistic missile is an act of grave provocation that threatens the peace and security of the Korean peninsula and international community,” South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement Sunday.

NORTH KOREA THREATENS NUCLEAR ACTION IF KIM JONG UN ASSASSINATED: REPORT

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has been engaged in linguistic duels with President Trump.
(Reuters)

This photo distributed by the North Korean government shows what it says is a test-fire of a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), at an undisclosed location in North Korea on March 24.
(Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)

NORTH KOREA SLAMS UN HUMAN RIGHTS EXPERT AS ‘US PUPPET’

The U.S. military also released a statement condemning Saturday’s launch. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Kim Seung-kyum and the U.S. Forces Korea Commander Paul LaCamera have also been in contact regarding the launch, according to Reuters.

“We are aware of the ballistic missile launch and are consulting closely with our allies and partners,” the United States Indo-Pacific Command said in a statement. “While we have assessed that this event does not pose an immediate threat to U.S. personnel or territory, or to our allies, the missile launch highlights the destabilizing impact of the DPRK’s unlawful WMD and ballistic missile programs. The U.S. commitments to the defense of the Republic of Korea and Japan remain ironclad.”

Harris’ visit to Asia will see her meeting with South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeol as well as Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The meetings will discuss regional security, particularly that of Taiwan against Chinese aggression.

Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada echoed condemnations from the U.S. and South Korea on Sunday, calling North Korea’s frequent launches this year “unprecedented.”

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“North Korea’s action represents a threat to the peace and security of our country, the region and the international community and to do this as the Ukraine invasion unfolds is unforgivable,” he said.

Source Article from https://www.foxnews.com/world/north-korea-fires-second-ballistic-missile-sea-ahead-vp-harris-visit-seoul

Italy will be led by the most far-right government since the fascist era of Benito Mussolini, early exit polls suggest.

An alliance of far-right parties, led by Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party – whose origins lie in post-war fascism – were on track to win between 41 and 45% of the vote in Sunday’s general election, according to data from the Rai exit pollster Piepoli.

The ultra-conservative Brothers of Italy party looks likely to win between 22 and 26% of the vote, with coalition partners the League, led by Matteo Salvini, taking between 8.5 and 12.5% and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia scoring between 6 and 8% of the vote.

As the leader of a far-right coalition, Meloni, a 45-year-old Euroskeptic firebrand, is now set to become Italy’s first female prime minister. Final results are expected early Monday.

Meloni’s party has seen an astronomical rise in popularity in recent years, having won just 4.5% of the vote in the last elections, in 2018.

How Giorgia Meloni and her far-right party became a driving force in Italian politics

Their popularity underscores Italy’s longstanding rejection of mainstream politics, seen most recently with the country’s support of anti-establishment parties such as the Five Star Movement and Salvini’s League.

Celebrating the early results on Sunday evening, Salvini said on Twitter, “Center-right in clear advantage both in the House and in the Senate! It will be a long night, but already now I want to say THANK YOU.”

Meloni, a 45-year-old mother from Rome who has campaigned under the slogan “God, country and family,” leads a party whose agenda is rooted in Euroskepticism, anti-immigration policies, and one that has also proposed curtailing LGBTQ and abortion rights.

The center-left coalition, led by the left-wing Democratic Party and centrist party +Europe are set to win between 25.5% and 29.5% of the vote, while former prime minister Giuseppe Conte’s bid to revive the Five Star Movement appeared to have been unsuccessful, taking just 14 to 17% of the vote.

Sunday’s snap national election was triggered by party infighting that saw the collapse of Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government in July.

Voters headed to the polls amid a number of new regulations, with voting hours also contained to one day rather than two.

Other changes included a younger voting age for the Senate and a reduction in the number of seats to elect – down from 685 seats to 400 in the Senate and from 315 to 200 in the lower House of Parliament. That parliament is scheduled to meet on October 13, at which point the head of state will call on party leaders to decide on the shape of the new government.

The conditions are perfect for a populist resurgence in Europe

The buildup to the election was dominated by hot-button issues including Italy’s cost-of-living crisis, a 209-billion euro package from the European Covid-19 recovery fund and the country’s support for Ukraine.

Meloni differs from coalition partner leaders Berlusconi and Salvini on a number of issues, however, including Ukraine, and has no connection to Russian President Vladimir Putin, unlike the pair, who have said they would like to review sanctions against Russia because of their impact on the Italian economy. Meloni has instead been steadfast in her support for defending Ukraine.

The incoming prime minister – the sixth in just eight years – will be tasked in tackling those challenges, with soaring energy costs and economic uncertainty among the country’s most pressing.

And while Meloni is slated to make history as Italy’s first female prime minister, her politics do not mean that she is necessarily interested in advancing women’s rights.

Emiliana De Blasio, adviser for diversity and inclusion at LUISS University in Rome told CNN Meloni is “not raising up at all questions on women’s rights and empowerment in general.”

Sunday’s results come as other far-right parties in other European countries have marked recent gains, including the rise in Sweden’s anti-immigration party, Sweden Democrats – a party with neo-Nazi roots – who are expected to play a major role in the new government after winning the second largest share of seats at a general election earlier this month.

And in France, while far-right ideologue Marine Le Pen lost the French presidential election to Emmanuel Macron in April, her share of the popular vote shifted France’s political center dramatically to the right.

Source Article from https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/25/europe/italy-election-results-intl/index.html

Tropical Storm Ian’s impact with Florida was baffling forecasters Sunday because of disagreement among some key computer forecast models. While dueling predictions are starting to align more with a possible landfall in west Central Florida, the National Hurricane Center cautioned that “uncertainty is still high.”

In its 5 p.m. update, the hurricane center said a Tropical Storm Watch had been issued for the lower Florida Keys, from the Seven Mile Bridge south to Key West, including the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Hurricane Warnings remain for Grand Cayman and parts of Cuba, where hurricane conditions are expected in the next 36 hours.

The NHC said Tropical Storm Ian had lost a bit of its punch Sunday evening, with maximum-sustained winds dropping to 45 mph from 50 mph earlier in the day. At 5 p.m., the storm was located about 220 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman and 495 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba. Ian was moving west-northwest at 12 mph.

“Some strengthening is forecast tonight, followed by more rapid strengthening on Monday and Tuesday,” the forecasters said. “Ian is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday.”

Ian is expected to have maximum-sustained winds of 80 mph in the next 24 hours and 130 mph in 60 hours before losing strength as it interacts with Florida.

The storm was expected to keep a northwestward motion through Sunday night and then switch to a north-northwestward track on Monday and early Tuesday as it moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or over western Cuba.

“From there, the track guidance still diverges at days 3-5 as Ian is forecast to move northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico,” the hurricane center said.

Computer forecast models agree Ian will hit Florida but don’t necessarily on where.

Two models, the UKMET and ECMWF, showed the storm tracking east and making landfall in west Central Florida. Two other models, the GFS and HWRF, were showing the storm moving more west and taking it into the Florida panhandle. Early Sunday there was between 220-250 miles difference between the model tracks in the forecast for Day 4 and Day 5 for Ian, the NHC said.

But at 5 p.m. Sunday, the NHC said, “the GFS has trended slightly eastward for the past few cycles, which has brought the multi-model consensus aids a bit eastward as well.”

The hurricane center shifted its projected path for Ian slightly east, only about 15-20 nautical miles in the extended range.

“Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges, since uncertainty is still high and future adjustments may be required,” the hurricane center said.

Florida will be impacted by the storm, regardless of where it may come ashore, Gov. Ron DeSantis said Sunday.

From Tallahassee, DeSantis urged Floridians Sunday to be prepared for the worst and pay attention to any shifts in the storm’s path.

“We are continuing to monitor Tropical Storm Ian,” DeSantis told reporters gathered at the state Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee.

John Cangialosi, a senior hurricane specialist at the Miami-based hurricane center, said it was not yet clear exactly where Ian will hit hardest. He said Floridians should begin preparations, including gathering supplies for potential power outages.

“At this point really the right message for those living in Florida is that you have to watch forecasts and get ready and prepare yourself for potential impact from this tropical system,” he said.

David Sharp, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Melbourne, said now is time for Central Florida residents to pay attention to Ian’s forecast.

“Stay up to date with the forecasts,” Sharp said. “Small changes in the forecast can end up making a big difference by the time it gets to us on day four or five.”

“You always want to plan for the most likely scenario at the minimum and prepare for a reasonable worst case scenario which means how bad it could get,” Sharp said. “The current forecast is what we call the most likely scenario so with that we are concerned with flooding rain, with tropical storm force winds, and hurricane gusts and tornadoes.”

As for when the Ian could have the greatest impact on Central Florida, Sharp pointed to Wednesday.

“The most likely time is Wednesday afternoon, evening about that time, so you definitely want to have things done by Wednesday morning, Wednesday afternoon the latest,” Sharp said. “Before we see the winds we are going to see rain … so you don’t want to be running around when the roads might be flooded or there’s tornado warnings.”

“The hazards that we’re concerned most about this time is flooding rain … also there’s a concern for tropical storm force winds with hurricane gusts right now,” Sharp said.

Across Central Florida, schools were monitoring Ian’s progress.

Bethune Cookman University, a private historically black university in Daytona Beach, announced a mandatory campus evacuation beginning Monday at noon with no return date set yet and students in residents halls were encouraged to evacuate as soon as Sunday.

At BCU classes will be moved online only on Tuesday, according to a letter by the Office of Academic Affairs on Saturday.

At the University of Central Florida, campus will remain open with a status update coming on Monday to decide university operations for the coming week.

Rollin College in Winter Park, will announce a decision on whether or not to close campus on Sunday, according to their official social media.

The University of South Florida in Tampa will keep campus operations open and classes as scheduled pending an update Sunday evening, according to the official university website.

Florida State University and the University of Florida are continuing to monitor the storm before announcing any changes to campus operations or classes, according to their official social media pages.

Both universities ask their students to plan and prepare as well as ensure they are up to date with their university’s emergency alert system.

Source Article from https://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-ne-tropical-storm-ian-florida-sunday-20220925-yqxaaqmwcrd7zlayadewqtgpxq-story.html