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Yet Ms. Warren has managed to assemble an ideologically diverse coalition. Though her supporters generally skew liberal, most of them don’t feel strongly about eliminating college tuition, and almost half don’t express strong support for breaking up banks and tech companies.

Health care has been the most discussed issue of the primary season, with Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren advocating a “Medicare for all” bill and more moderate candidates calling for a public option. The poll found that most Democratic voters in Iowa are open to a single payer-type plan, but a majority would prefer a candidate who seeks to strengthen the Affordable Care Act and add a public option.

While Mr. Sanders’ Iowa supporters are united in their desire for a single-payer health care system, Ms. Warren brings together a broader spectrum: Barely over half of her voters feel strongly about getting rid of private insurance. This suggests that Ms. Warren has room to grow among the substantial share of voters who are less interested in Medicare for all, and who have not yet settled on a final candidate choice.

There’s still a lot we don’t know

It is impossible to say just how many voters will actually turn out in a primary, or which groups will vote in the greatest numbers. At caucuses, which are more sparsely attended, it’s especially hard to know.

So, remember that like all the pre-election surveys that you’ll see in the coming months, the results of this one were dictated in part by how our team defined the probable electorate.

Add in the complex set of rules governing the Iowa caucuses — where backers of less-popular candidates will eventually have to throw their support to someone else on the night of the election — and it all adds up to a lot of uncertainty. This poll is nothing more than our attempt at a snapshot of where things are at, three months out.

Besides that, Iowa’s voters are more than 90 percent white, so the results of this poll carry only the faintest of implications about how the race will play out in the rest of the country. After Iowa’s caucuses and the first primary a week later, in heavily white New Hampshire, the importance of the party’s nonwhite electorate — particularly black and Hispanic voters — will come back into the foreground.