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ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates — Former house speaker and staunch Republican Paul Ryan sees only one Democrat capable of beating President Donald Trump in the 2020 election — but that candidate won’t actually make it to the nomination, he argued at a panel event on Tuesday.

“I’d say he’s probably the most likely one to have a chance at beating Donald Trump, but I don’t see Joe getting the nomination, I just don’t see him getting there. I think it’s going be one of these progressives, which I think will be much easier to beat,” he told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble at the annual Milken Conference in Abu Dhabi.

Speaking as a former Congressman for Wisconsin, the one-time vice presidential hopeful outlined three key states the parties will have to fight over to win in 2020: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. In those states, particularly Ryan’s home state, “I think Joe is probably the hardest to beat, because it’s going to come down to the suburban (voter), it’s going to be the suburbanite that’ll basically be the difference-maker,” he said.

Ryan, who is on the board of Fox News parent Fox Corp., described that voter as typically a right-of-center, first-generation college-educated white collar worker. “A first-generation Republican and they like Trump the idea, they like Trump the disruption — they don’t necessarily like the personality and the noise and the tweets that come with it,” he said. 

“So they’ll be tempted to vote for what they think is a safe moderate — and I think Joe Biden, it’s all relative, will fall into that category, and is the likeliest to be able to win that voter,” Ryan said. But that’s only if Biden, former vice president and senator from Delaware, wins his party’s nomination.