Why Warnock and Ossoff Won in Georgia – The New York Times

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Over all, turnout reached a remarkable 92 percent of 2020 general-election levels in precincts carried by Mr. Biden in November, compared with 88 percent of general election-levels in the precincts carried by Mr. Trump. These tallies include Upshot estimates of the remaining uncounted vote by precinct, and it suggests that nearly all of the Democratic gains since the November election can be attributed to the relatively stronger Democratic turnout.

A majority of Georgia’s Democratic voters are Black — they are roughly 30 percent of the overall electorate — and it was these voters who drove the stronger Democratic turnout. Over all, turnout reached 93 percent of 2020 levels in precincts where Black voters represented at least 80 percent of the electorate. In comparison, turnout fell to 87 percent of general election- levels in white working-class precincts.

In any election, it can be hard to decide whether to frame the result as a strong turnout for one side as opposed to a weak one from the other. In this election, it is easier to argue that the Black and Democratic turnout was strong rather than to say that the Republican turnout was weak. Republican turnout was extremely strong for a runoff election; had analysts been told of G.O.P. turnout in advance, most would have assumed the Republicans were on track to win.

The relatively strong Democratic turnout produced such a marked shift in part because the November election featured relatively weak Black turnout. In the November election, the Black share of the Georgia electorate appeared to fall to its lowest level since 2006; Black turnout, though it increased, did so to a lesser degree than non-Black turnout. In part for this reason, Democrats had legitimate cause to hope they could enjoy a more favorable electorate in the runoff than in the general, even though they have tended to fare worse in Georgia runoffs over the last two decades.

It will be some time before the Black share of the runoff electorate can be nailed down with precision, but the results by precinct and early voting data suggest it may rise two points higher than in the general election, to a level not seen in the state since Barack Obama’s re-election bid in 2012.

Source Article from https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/07/upshot/warnock-ossoff-georgia-victories.html

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