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While indoor dining has resumed, most groups larger than six are prohibited, and nightclubs, music venues and large events remain shuttered, leaving many hospitality businesses still reeling. The British government has long targeted June 21 — “freedom day,” in the parlance of the tabloids — as the date when it hoped “to remove all legal limits on social contact.”

The critical issue is whether a recent rise in Covid cases will accelerate and translate into a surge of severe illness, something that depends in part on how quickly people are given their second doses. Scientists reported this past week that Pfizer’s vaccine elicited a weaker antibody response to the Delta variant than the original virus, especially among older people, raising the prospect of a booster shot being needed.

“There are reasons to be hopeful — we’re not seeing a big trend in hospital admissions — but it’s early days,” Professor Naismith said. “If we don’t see anything by June 14, we can exhale. We don’t need to hold our breath.”

Other scientists argue that widespread vaccinations have changed the reopening calculus. While only half of British adults are fully vaccinated, that includes nearly all of the most vulnerable. And 76 percent overall have gotten one shot. As a result, some scientists say, upticks in new infections are tolerable so long as the vast majority do not lead to serious illness or death.

“This variant is going to find it hard to spread, because it’s limited to younger people and limited to certain parts of the country,” Professor Spector said.

He said the government needed to help the neighborhoods where it was spreading and, beyond that, encourage people to keep working from home and socially distancing when possible. But delaying the easing of restrictions, he said, was not necessary.

“We need to get used to the idea there will be a few thousand cases every day and that this is a part of our life,” Professor Spector said. “Those cases will be milder.”