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Ash added that the current direction of travel “feels a bit like slow motion action to an actual conflict in Europe.”

Two Russian strategic bomber jets also flew over Belarus on a training mission on Thursday, the Belarusian defense ministry said.

“Let them scream and squeak. Yes, those are nuclear-capable bombers, but we have no other choice,” Lukashenko reportedly said Thursday.

He noted that the Belarusian Defense Ministry and border troops, along with its state security, have been deployed “to ensure control over the movement of troops of NATO and Poland.”

“You can already see 15,000 troops, tanks, armored vehicles, helicopters and planes brought to our border without any warning,” the president said, according to a Belarusian government readout.

However, Emre Peker, director of the Europe team at political consultancy Eurasia Group, said Lukashenko is “extremely unlikely” to follow through on the threat to disrupt gas flows to Europe, due to revenue constraints and likely Russian opposition.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reportedly told journalists on a conference call Friday that Moscow had not been consulted ahead of Lukashenko’s threats to cut gas supply to Europe.

“Russia relies on transit through Belarus to meet European contracts. Shutting down the pipeline would damage Gazprom’s long-term market position, reinforcing Russian gas-supply stability concerns,” Peker said.

“Halting gas flows would also cost Lukashenko some $300 million a year in transit revenues that Belarus can ill afford.”

Peker noted that this figure is comparable to the economic hit from EU sanctions in June on Belarus’s oil and potash exports, and would “greatly exceed the likely impact of fresh EU sanctions.”

He also suggested that diplomatic, commercial, and legal challenges would prevent the EU from targeting sanctions at Aeroflot and Turkish Airlines, but Brussels will likely hit Belavia to inflict quick punishment on Belarus.