Arizona reported more than 1,000 new COVID-19 cases for a third day in a row, and the state reported 13 new known deaths on Thursday as upward trends continued.
The past several weeks have seen relatively higher daily case reports as the virus spreads at its fastest rate in Arizona since June, although case numbers are still well below where they were at during the summer peak.
Arizona’s reproduction rate for the SARS-CoV-2 virus was at 1.16 on Thursday, the same as in early June, according to rt.live, a tracking website created by Instagram co-founders Kevin Systrom and Mike Krieger using data from the COVID Tracking Project.
The reproduction rate refers to the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If it’s above 1.0, COVID-19 will spread quickly. From late June to early September, Arizona’s reproduction rate was at or below 1.0, meaning infections slowed. Since then, it has gradually increased.
Identified COVID-19 cases in Arizona rose by 1,315 on Thursday to 242,480, and known deaths were at 5,918, according to the daily report from the Arizona Department of Health Services.
The number of patients hospitalized statewide for known or suspected COVID-19 cases rose slightly on Wednesday to 874 from 871 on Tuesday. Wednesday’s total is the highest number reported since Aug. 26. At the peak of Arizona’s surge in July, the number of hospitalized patients suspected or confirmed to have the virus exceeded 3,000.
The number of patients with suspected or known COVID-19 in intensive care units across Arizona was at 186 on Wednesday, down slightly from Tuesday’s total of 188. Friday’s 191 ICU beds in use was the highest level since Sept. 9. The level is far below what it was in July, when ICU beds in use for COVID-19 reached 970.
The number of Arizonans with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 on ventilators was at 95 on Wednesday. In mid-July, as many as 687 patients across the state with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 were on ventilators.
Thursday’s dashboard shows 86% of inpatient beds and 86% of ICU beds in use, which includes people being treated for COVID-19 and other patients. COVID-19 patients were using 10% of all inpatient beds and 11% of ICU beds. Overall, 29% of ventilators were in use.
Percent positivity, which refers to the percent of COVID-19 diagnostic tests that are positive, has gone up slightly, which many health experts consider an early indicator of a spike in illnesses.
WATCH LIVE: Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey to give COVID-19 update
Of known test results from last week, the percent positivity was 6%, up from 5% the week prior, according to the state, which has a unique way of calculating percent positivity. Before the past two weeks, percent positivity was at 4% for six weeks straight, according to state data.
Johns Hopkins University calculates Arizona’s seven-day moving average of percent positives at 9.8% on Thursday, up from 9.3% on Wednesday. It shows the state’s percent positivity had reached a relative plateau and is now trending slightly upward.
A positivity rate of 5% is considered a good benchmark that the spread of the disease is under control.
The Arizona Department of Health Services on Tuesday released a video that notes a 57% increase in weekly new cases from September’s numbers and tells state residents to “remain vigilant” about following COVID-19 prevention practices like physical distancing and wearing a mask in public.
What you need to know about Thursday’s numbers
Reported cases in Arizona: 242,480.
Cases increased by 1,315 or 0.54% from Wednesday’s 241,165 identified cases since the outbreak began.
Cases by county: 156,736 in Maricopa, 28,067 in Pima, 13,735 in Yuma, 11,937 in Pinal, 6,410 in Navajo, 5,243 in Coconino, 4,371 in Mohave, 3,965 in Apache, 3,021 in Santa Cruz, 2,961 in Yavapai, 2,171 in Cochise, 1,945 in Gila, 1,197 in Graham, 620 in La Paz and 101 in Greenlee, according to state numbers.
The rate of cases per 100,000 people is highest in Yuma County, followed by Santa Cruz, Navajo and Apache counties. The rate in Yuma County is 5,973 cases per 100,000 people. By comparison, the U.S. average rate is 2,645 cases per 100,000 people, according to data released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The Navajo Nation reported 11,462 cases and 575 confirmed deaths as of Wednesday. The Navajo Nation includes parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah.
The Arizona Department of Corrections said 2,636 inmates had tested positive for COVID-19 as of Wednesday, including 995 in Tucson; 40,973 inmates statewide have been tested.
A total of 762 prison staff members have self-reported testing positive, the state corrections department said. Eighteen incarcerated people in Arizona have been confirmed to have died of COVID-19, with 10 additional deaths under investigation.
While race/ethnicity is unknown for 30% of all COVID-19 cases statewide, 31% of cases are Hispanic or Latino, 26% are white, 6% are Native American, 3% are Black and 1% are Asian/Pacific Islander.
Laboratories have completed 1,745,662 diagnostic tests for COVID-19, 10.2% of which have come back positive. That number now includes both PCR and antigen testing. The percentage of positive tests had increased since mid-May but began decreasing in July. Last week it was at 6%, up from 5% the week prior and 4% for six weeks before that. The state numbers leave out data from labs that do not report electronically.
ADHS has begun including probable cases as anyone with a positive antigen test, another type of test to determine current infection. Antigen tests (not related to antibody tests) are a newer type of COVID-19 diagnostic test that use a nasal swab or another fluid sample to test for current infection. Results are typically produced within 15 minutes.
A positive antigen test result is considered very accurate, but there’s an increased chance of false-negative results, the Mayo Clinic says. Depending on the situation, Mayo Clinic officials say a doctor may recommend a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test to confirm a negative antigen test result.
Arizona, as of Tuesday had the 16th highest overall rate of infection in the country, an improvement over 14th place on Monday, the Centers for Disease Control and Infection’s COVID Data Tracker says.
Ahead of Arizona in cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began are North Dakota, South Dakota, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Wisconsin, Iowa, Tennessee, , Florida, Arkansas, Idaho, South Carolina, Utah, Nebraska and Georgia, according to the CDC.
Arizona’s infection rate is 3,348 cases per 100,000 people, the CDC said. The national average is 2,645 cases per 100,000 people, though the rates in states hard-hit early on in the pandemic may be an undercount because a lack of available testing in March and April.
Reported deaths: 5,918
County deaths: 3,566 in Maricopa, 638 in Pima, 354 in Yuma, 240 in Navajo, 231 in Mohave, 225 in Pinal, 169 in Apache, 149 in Coconino, 89 in Yavapai, 75 in Cochise, 70 in Gila, 65 in Santa Cruz, 28 in Graham, 17 in La Paz and fewer than three in Greenlee.
People aged 65 and older made up 4,213 of the 5,918 deaths, or 71%.
While race/ethnicity is unknown for 11% of deaths, 42% of those who died were white, 30% were Hispanic or Latino, 11% were Native American, 3% were Black and 1% were Asian/Pacific Islander, the state data show.
The global death toll on Thursday was 1,716,328 and the U.S. had the highest death count of any country in the world, at 227,897, according to Johns Hopkins University. Arizona’s death total of 5,918 deaths represents 2.6% of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. as of Wednesday.
The COVID-19 death rate in Arizona was 82 per 100,000 people as of Wednesday, according to the CDC, putting it 10th in the country in a state ranking that separates New York City and New York state. The U.S. average is 68 deaths per 100,000 people, the CDC says.
Behind New York City, at 285 deaths per 100,000 people, the CDC put the highest death rates ahead of Arizona as New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Louisiana, Rhode Island, Mississippi, the District of Columbia and New York state.
Reach health care reporter Stephanie Innes at Stephanie.Innes@gannett.com or at 602-444-8369. Follow her on Twitter @stephanieinnes
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