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Be cautiously optimistic that the United States and China will soon recommence trade negotiations. While China is feeling real economic pain, President Xi Jinping believes that President Trump desperately wants a deal, and that only encourages him to play hardball.

Still, Trump was optimistic in his comments on Monday. “China called last night,” Trump claimed, “said let’s get back to the table. So we’ll be getting back to the table.” China has been more circumspect for two reasons. First, Xi does not want to be seen as deferential to or cowed by Trump — this also matters in the context of tensions over Hong Kong. Second, that while Xi wants to end U.S. tariffs, he believes the 2020 U.S. elections mean Trump will cut a deal on pro-Chinese terms.

For Xi, the value of a deal with the United States is not measured by the economic or political situation in any one moment. It’s the generational outcome that matters. Xi wants to alter the fabric of the international order and adapt the international economy to service Beijing above all others. That means a global system in which China drives international investment in return for nations transferring their intellectual property and political deference to Beijing.

That is why Trump’s policies so concern China. In challenging Beijing’s intellectual property theft and attempting to force China’s acceptance of international trading norms, and in showing more military resolve in contesting China’s theft of international waters, Trump threatens Xi’s long term vision.

That leads us to Xi’s strategy over the next few months.

Due to the significant damage that the trade war is doing to China’s economy, Xi is likely to pursue new talks with the U.S. However, he won’t rush to make a deal that imposes veritably binding conditions on his long-term economic strategy. From his perspective, Chinese intellectual property theft must continue regardless of any deal. For the U.S., the best case scenario here is probably that Xi will deceptively pledge to restrain his theft, but also accept slightly improved U.S. business access to his territory.

Trump would be wise to end his tariffs in return for a deal that allows broader U.S. market access and Xi’s greater conformity with World Trade Organization rules. That would consolidate the markets and reduce goods prices for U.S. consumers and businesses. Trump can then use other tools of statecraft to counter Xi’s ambitions and the inevitable continuation of Chinese intellectual property theft.