The remnants of a Pacific category 2 hurricane that hit Mexico Monday have higher odds of reforming into the first tropical storm in the Atlantic this season while aiming for Florida by the tail-end of this week.
The National Hurricane Center said the odds of tropical development of what would be the Atlantic hurricane season’s first system over the next five days is at 60% as of its 8 a.m. tropical outlook. The NHC also said the system has a 10% of forming in the next two days.
Hurricane Agatha made landfall Monday afternoon near Puerto Angel, Mexico, with 105 mph winds. After the storm moves over land and eventually dissipates, it could reform into a system with the potential to become Tropical Storm Alex.
“Despite strong upper-level winds over the area, this system could become a tropical depression while moving northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this week,” said NHC hurricane specialist Robbie Berg.
Spectrum News 13 meteorologist Maureen McCann said Tuesday that it’s too early to tell what the system will develop into and where it would go.
“The models aren’t in agreement just yet on where this will go or how it will develop as it is expected to weaken over land,” McCann said. “It could be a rainy weekend here in Florida, or it could miss us altogether. Either way this serves as a good reminder to be prepared for this storm or anything else that develops as we get into season.”
On Monday evening Hurricane Agatha’s maximum sustained winds dropped to 80 mph, located about 15 miles north-northeast of Puerto Angel. It was moving to the northeast at 8 mph.
“On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will continue to move inland over Oaxaca through early Tuesday,” the NHC said in its 8 p.m. update. Rapid weakening is forecast overnight, and Agatha is expected to dissipate over southeastern Mexico by late Tuesday.
Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its hurricane season predictions, stating a 65% chance of experiencing an above-average 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, beginning June 1 and running until Nov. 30.
“We always want to be prepared, whether it’s this or any other system – you want to be prepared, not scared,” McCann said.
The prediction came off the heels of last season when there were 21 named storms — the third-highest season total ever — and 2020′s record-breaking season of 30 named systems.
Jpedersen@orlandosentinel.com
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