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Republicans say the chances that former President TrumpDonald TrumpIran’s leader vows ‘revenge,’ posting an image resembling Trump Former Sanders spokesperson: Biden ‘backing away’ from ‘populist offerings’ Justice Dept. to probe sudden departure of US attorney in Atlanta after Trump criticism MORE will be convicted in an impeachment trial are plummeting, despite lingering anger among some Republicans over his actions.

Only five or six Republican senators at the most seem likely to vote for impeachment, far fewer than the number needed, GOP sources say.

A two-thirds majority vote would be necessary for a conviction, something that would require at least 17 GOP votes if every Democrat votes to convict Trump.

Senators say a few things have moved in Trump’s favor.

One significant development is that Trump decided not to pardon any of the individuals charged with taking part in the Capitol riot, which would have lost him more Republican support.

“I thought if he pardoned people who had been part of this invasion of the Capitol, that would have pushed the number higher because that would have said, ‘These are my guys,’” said one Republican senator, who requested anonymity to speak about how GOP senators are likely to vote.

GOP senators are also worried about a political backlash from the former president’s fervent supporters.

They have observed the angry response to House Republican Conference Chairwoman Liz CheneyElizabeth (Liz) Lynn CheneyFor Biden, a Senate trial could aid bipartisanship around COVID relief McCarthy supports Cheney remaining in leadership amid calls for her to step down Budowsky: Democracy won, Trump lost, President Biden inaugurated MORE (R-Wyo.), who is facing calls to resign from the House GOP leadership team after voting last week to impeach Trump.

A second Republican senator said the Republican Party needs to rebuild and warned it will be tough to bring Trump’s base into the party tent ahead of the 2022 midterm elections and the 2024 presidential election if GOP senators vote in large numbers to convict Trump.

“I do think his supporters would be very upset,” the lawmaker said.

At the same time, this lawmaker warned of the dangers of the party being too beholden to Trump.

“The Republican Party is going to have to have a discussion about its future. At some point it’s going to have to become about something more than a person,” the lawmaker said.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellTrump selects South Carolina lawyer for impeachment trial McConnell proposes postponing impeachment trial until February For Biden, a Senate trial could aid bipartisanship around COVID relief MORE (R-Ky.) on Thursday proposed delaying the start of the trial until mid-February. He is asking for the House impeachment managers to wait until Thursday to present the article of impeachment to the Senate. He wants to give Trump’s legal team until Feb. 11 to submit its pre-trial brief.

This represents a third factor that could blunt political momentum among Republicans to convict Trump, as with each passing day his presidency recedes further and further into the past.

“For the most part, there is a real strong consensus among our members that this is after the fact. He’s out of office and impeachment is a remedy to remove somebody from office, so there’s the constitutional question,” the second GOP senator said.

“That’s my sense of where most of our members are going to come down,” the source added.

A fourth factor is growing doubt about whether Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts will preside over a Senate trial.

Republicans say if Roberts doesn’t preside and the chair is instead occupied by Vice President Harris — who as a California senator voted to convict Trump on two articles of impeachment last year — or Senate President Pro Tempore Pat Leahy (D-Vt.), the process will appear like a partisan exercise.

“It starts losing its legitimacy,” the first Republican senator said of an impeachment trial without the chief justice in the chair.

A third Republican senator said there are “five or six, maybe” votes to convict Trump, arguing there’s no point in casting a vote that would further divide the country when the president is already out of office.

“If people like me vote no, then there are only five or six,” the senator added. “What would it do to the country?”

“I don’t want to tell my constituents you can’t vote for him. They’re grownups,” the lawmaker added.

A fourth Republican senator also said the number of expected Republican votes to convict Trump will be fewer than 10.

“I’d say certainly less than 10, and I’d say five or six is probably about right,” the lawmaker said.

Republican senators say that colleagues who have publicly declared that Trump has committed impeachable offenses or have blamed him for inciting the mob that stormed the Capitol are most likely to vote to convict Trump.

Sens. Ben SasseBen SasseSenate approves waiver for Biden’s Pentagon nominee Budowsky: Democracy won, Trump lost, President Biden inaugurated Pompeo labels China’s treatment of Uighurs ‘genocide’ MORE (R-Neb.) and Pat ToomeyPatrick (Pat) Joseph ToomeyGovernment used Patriot Act to gather website visitor logs in 2019 Appeals court rules NSA’s bulk phone data collection illegal Dunford withdraws from consideration to chair coronavirus oversight panel MORE (R-Pa.) have said they believe Trump likely committed impeachable offenses.

Sens. Mitt RomneyWillard (Mitt) Mitt RomneyFor Biden, a Senate trial could aid bipartisanship around COVID relief Bipartisan Senate gang to talk with Biden aide on coronavirus relief GOP senator calls Biden’s COVID-19 relief plan a ‘non-starter’ MORE (R-Utah) and Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsFor Biden, a Senate trial could aid bipartisanship around COVID relief Limbaugh falsely says Biden didn’t win legitimately while reacting to inauguration Bipartisan Senate gang to talk with Biden aide on coronavirus relief MORE (R-Maine) publicly blamed him for inciting the crowd.

And Sen. Lisa MurkowskiLisa Ann MurkowskiFor Biden, a Senate trial could aid bipartisanship around COVID relief Bipartisan Senate gang to talk with Biden aide on coronavirus relief The Hill’s Morning Report – Biden takes office, calls for end to ‘uncivil war’ MORE (R-Alaska) called on him to resign from office early. 

There have been reports that McConnell himself has confided to associates that he believes Trump committed impeachable offenses, and the GOP leader has not said how he would vote. 

But many believe McConnell would not vote to convict Trump if doing so would hurt a number of his colleagues up for reelection in 2022, when Republicans hope they can again gain control of the Senate.