São Paulo – The World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released this Tuesday (7th) by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) assesses that countries’ economies are still struggling to return to growth and that recovery after the 2008 is increasingly uneven. Some are growing fast while others are unable to grow at all.
The report also revises down its growth prospects for the world economy, the Middle East and North Africa and Brazil in 2014 and 2015. According to the Fund, some countries managed to grow more than others, but generally speaking, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth remains weak.
“Among advanced economies, growth is projected to pick up, but is slower in the euro area and Japan and generally faster in the United States and elsewhere. Among major emerging markets, growth is projected to remain high in emerging Asia, with a modest slowdown in China and a pickup in India, but to stay subdued in Brazil and Russia,” reads the WEO’s chapter on recent economic developments and their consequences for the next few years.
The report estimates that Middle East and North Africa countries, which include non-Arab nations such as Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, should grow by 2.7% this year and 3.9% in 2015. In July, the WEO had forecasted growth of 3.1% in 2014 and 4.8% in 2015.
The Fund also forecasts 3.8% growth this year and 4% in 2015 for Algeria; 3.9% and 2.9% for Bahrain; 5.5% and 5.5% for Djibouti; 2.2% and 3.5% for Egypt; -2.7% and 1.5% for Iraq; 3.5% and 4% for Jordan; 1.4% and 1.8% for Kuwait; 1.8% and 2.5% for Lebanon; -19.8% and 15% for Libya; 6.8% and 6.8% for Mauritania; 3.5% and 4.7% for Morocco; 3.4% and 3.4% for Oman; 6.5% and 7.5% for Qatar; 4.6% and 4.5% for Saudi Arabia; 3% and 3.7% for Sudan; 2.8% and 3.7% for Tunisia; 4.3% and 4.5% for the United Arab Emirates; 1.9% and 4.6% for Yemen; 3.9% and 3.9% for the Comoro Islands. The IMF did not release forecasts for Syria, Somalia and Palestine.
“Growth is expected to increase in 2015, assuming that security improves, allowing for a recovery in oil production, particularly in Libya. Economic activity in the oil importers is projected to improve only gradually as they continue to deal with difficult sociopolitical transitions, subdued confidence, and setbacks from regional conflicts,” the report reads.
Brazil and the world
GDP growth for Brazil is expected to be 0.3% this year and 1.4% in the next. The IMF’s prior forecast was 1.3% in 2014 and 2% in 2015.
The organization noted that in Brazil, investment is declining, consumption is moderate and the GDP contracted in Q1 and Q2 2014. The reason was low business and consumer confidence in the economy and financial conditions that do not stimulate economic growth. “These factors, along with weakness in competitiveness, are projected to keep growth subdued in much of 2014-2015,” says the IMF.
The organization has also revised down its global growth forecast. In July, global GDP was estimated to grow by 3.4% in 2014 and 4% in 2015. The new estimates are 3.3% and 3.8%.
*Translated by Rodrigo Mendonça
Comments