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Ayatollah Khamenei has compared negotiating with the United States to “drinking poison.”

“The parts of the government that wanted to engage with America have been proven wrong, and are not going to have an opportunity to engage anytime soon,” said Narges Bajoghli, an assistant professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies who frequently speaks with people in hard-line Iranian circles.

Iranian officials have tried to drive a wedge between President Trump, who has frequently expressed the desire to disentangle the United States from the Middle East, and his foreign policy team, which takes a harder line. National Security Adviser John Bolton has long advocated regime change, while Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has also appeared to endorse it.

Iranian leaders have singled out Mr. Bolton as a warmonger who is getting ahead of his boss.

“Bolton May Be Sacked,” read a recent headline in Javan, a hard-line newspaper, referring to American reports that Mr. Trump was not pleased with Mr. Bolton. “Infighting in Washington,” echoed Arman-e Emrooz, a more moderate paper.

Analysts said the Iranians may have been hoping to lay low until the 2020 American presidential election when a friendlier administration might come to power. They were thinking, “maybe we can wait this guy out,” said Dina Esfandiary, a Century Foundation fellow who focuses on Iran. Most of the Democratic presidential candidates support rejoining the nuclear deal.

But there are no guarantees that a Democrat will win, or that a new president would automatically embrace the deal without new demands.

While Iranian officials may be able to rely on rainy-day funds, oil smuggling and trade with friendly countries until the end of 2020, they are not likely to carry it through 2024, analysts said.