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Lawyers for Mr. Trump did not immediately respond to a request for comment. But a member of his legal team has previously vowed to fight the congressional effort “tooth and nail.”

The case traces back to Mr. Trump’s decision — first as a presidential candidate in the 2016 election and then in office — to break with modern precedent by refusing to make his tax returns public.

When Democrats won control of the House, they began trying to investigate his finances using congressional oversight powers. Among other things, they heard testimony from Mr. Trump’s former lawyer, Michael D. Cohen, who said that Mr. Trump had boasted about inflating the value of assets when it served him, and undervaluing them when it helped to lower his taxes.

As prosecutors in Manhattan weigh whether to charge Mr. Trump with fraud, they have zeroed in on financial documents that he used to obtain loans and boast about his wealth, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The same federal law that empowered Mr. Neal to request Mr. Trump’s tax returns from the Treasury Department also would permit House Democrats to publish them in the Congressional Record, although that power has rarely been used, Judge McFadden wrote.

Writing that the case put the country in “uncharted territory,” the judge — a 2017 appointee of Mr. Trump — warned that he did not think it would be wise for Congress to use its authority to publish Mr. Trump’s tax returns.

“Anyone can see that publishing confidential tax information of a political rival is the type of move that will return to plague the inventor,” the judge wrote. But he added: “It might not be right or wise to publish the returns, but it is the chairman’s right to do so.”