Five days into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it seems things haven’t gone exactly to plan for Vladimir Putin so far.
Western intelligence officials briefed repeatedly over the weekend that Russian forces have encountered “stiffer than expected” resistance from an outmanned and outgunned Ukrainian military.
Russia has thus far failed to take key cities across Ukraine, including the capital Kyiv. On Sunday, Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian advance on a strategic airfield near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, which has been under near-constant attack.
In addition to a fierce fightback from Ukrainian forces and civilians, the Russian invasion has suffered logistical challenges, with soldiers on the front line running short of fuel, ammunition and food.
But a senior US defense official told reporters on Sunday that Russia has only used two-thirds of the total combat power applied to the mission, leaving a significant amount of forces available to press the offensive.
And on Monday, a miles-long convoy of Russian military vehicles was bearing down on the Ukrainian capital, while Kyiv’s intelligence also suggests Belarus is prepared to join the Russian invasion, according to a Ukrainian official.
Representatives from Ukraine and Russia were meeting Monday on the Belarusian border. In those talks, Ukraine will insist on an “immediate ceasefire” and the withdrawal of Russian troops — though, realistically, no one is expecting that to happen.
Putin, it seems, hasn’t just misjudged Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, but also just how hard a line the international community would take against Russia in the event of an invasion.
For years, the Russian president has faced very little pushback from the West over his illegal annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea, his brutal support for the Syrian regime and acts of aggression in other countries.
For all their strong words of condemnation for Putin and his regime, Western countries still bought gas from Russia, offered a safe haven to Russian oligarchs and retained relatively normal diplomatic relations with Moscow.
But this time around — despite a few early rocky patches which saw Western nations accused of not hitting Russia hard enough — Putin has faced an unusually united Western alliance.
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