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After rejecting the idea publicly, Mexico eventually went along with it. And then, after vowing to limit the numbers and locations of those sent back to Mexico, the nation bowed to pressure on that as well.

Most Mexicans think agreeing to be a first country of asylum for migrants would be the wrong move — in part because doing so would not guarantee there would be no new demands in the future.

“Trump lives off confrontation and conflict,” added Mr. Poiré, the former Mexican interior secretary. “That is his core political strategy and when there is concession, he will immediately look for the next agenda and excuse to pick a fight with Mexico.”

Mr. López Obrador has, for the moment, maintained his friendly, optimistic tone. He has said he believes an agreement will be reached, and has insisted on amicable relations with the United States. But the consistent provocation of Mexico by Mr. Trump has long worried experts.

The nationalism and suspicion felt by an older generation of Mexicans toward the United States — which gave way to a strong bilateral relationship and economic cooperation in the post-free trade era — could easily be stoked.

“Up until two generations ago, most Mexicans, like myself, grew up accustomed to feeling deeply suspicious of the United States,” said Héctor Villarreal, a professor at the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education in Mexico. “We were experiencing a new generational shift and a really positive era of considering the U.S. our neighbor and our partner.”