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Outdoor and indoor dining could be banned in certain California regions under a new stay-at-home order likely taking effect in the coming weeks, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced on Thursday. Bars and wineries would have to temporarily close altogether.

The new three-week order breaks up the state into five regions and would go into effect 48 hours after a region’s intensive care unit capacity drops below 15% — as of now, no regions in California meet that metric.

But Newsom warned the Bay Area region — defined here as Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Monterey, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano and Sonoma counties — is projected to fall below 15% in mid- to late-December. He said the four other regions are projected to hit that metric even earlier, by early December. The news comes after days of swirling rumors about a new lockdown.

While on-site dining would be banned, restaurants in affected areas could remain open for takeout and delivery, as they’re considered essential services.

“As a restaurateur myself… I deeply empathize and I have deep appreciation for the stress and the struggles our restaurants have had,” Newsom said.

The order also requires that grocery stores and other retailers in those regions operate at 20% capacity, while schools can reopen for in-person classes if they receive a waiver. Here’s more on the rules.

“This is the final surge,” he later added. “We have a light at the end of the tunnel with these vaccines but we need to take seriously this moment.”

It’s the latest blow for a restaurant industry that’s been clinging to survival for months. In most Bay Area counties, restaurants were able to reopen for outdoor dining this summer and then add indoor dining in the fall — some had only just begun welcoming diners inside when the majority of counties banned indoor dining in November amid skyrocketing coronavirus cases.

In some counties, such as Sonoma and San Mateo, there was even more back-and-forth, with restaurants opening, closing, opening and closing again. Because of the challenging landscape and increasingly cold weather making outdoor dining less attractive, many San Francisco restaurant owners have been considering going into “hibernation,” or temporarily closing for the winter in the hopes of reemerging later.

The steady allowance of outdoor dining, however, had been a lifeline for many restaurants. In the Richmond District, neighborhood spot Cassava estimated 50% of the restaurant’s business has been outdoor dining. Financial District power lunch spot the Vault opened an all-outdoor restaurant, the Vault Garden, to great success — and it recently spent thousands on a giant transparent tent, heat lamps and decor to make the space feel like a winter wonderland. Even on the less elaborate end, restaurant parklets typically cost $10,000-$30,000.

The start of the pandemic saw Bay Area restaurants pivot to meal kits, frozen food and comforting takeout fare, like sandwiches from two Michelin-starred Lazy Bear. When outdoor dining became allowed, many stopped offering the items geared toward folks staying at home.

This story is developing.

Janelle Bitker is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: janelle.bitker@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @janellebitker