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A tropical disturbance near the Bahamas is getting more organized and has a strong chance of growing into a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next two days as it sets its sights on Florida, forecasters from the National Hurricane Center said on Thursday.

If the system becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Humberto. As for its future track, no one knows for certain, but forecasters say lots of possibilities are on the table — including a path along the eastern coast of Florida towards the Carolinas, similar to the track of the recent monster storm, Hurricane Dorian.

As is common when storm systems are disorganized and barely in their formation stage, computer guidance models spit out a wide array of potential storm tracks.

Many models continue to favor a track across southern Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. However, an overnight run of the European guidance model suggested the storm system could hug the eastern coast of Florida and move up the southeastern U.S. coast. And the National Hurricane Center’s official forecast map made a noticeable eastward shift in the projected track during the past 24 hours.

Not surprisingly, that sparked a big buzz on social media. Forecasters, however, say it’s far too early to determine where this tropical storm will go — if it even develops into a tropical storm.

Future storm track is ‘very uncertain’

The European model simulations “look rather interesting next week, though given the highly variable solutions run to run, it is best to take these individual simulations with a grain of salt,” the National Weather Service’s regional office in New Jersey said in its forecast discussion on Thursday.

The main American forecast model, known as the GFS, has a “totally different” projection on where the storm system may move, the weather service office notes. “The bottom line is that the large-scale pattern is of very low predictability next week, with model solutions unlikely to converge/stabilize for several more days.”

“It’s very uncertain what it’s long-term track is going to be,” said Jonathan O’Brien, a meteorologist at the weather service office in Mount Holly, which oversees forecasts for the Jersey Shore, Delaware and eastern Maryland.

“It’s way, way too early to know,” he added, not only the storm’s path but its intensity and how it would be influenced by other weather systems circulating in the Atlantic.

Weather experts at the Washington Post agree, calling it “a very challenging system to forecast,” noting that “its ragged, sloppy structure right now makes it difficult for computer models to project its future path.”

O’Brien says his office will be closely monitoring the progress of the storm system and the public should monitor trustworthy weather sources, like the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service.

Status of tropical disturbance

As of Thursday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center says there’s a 70 percent chance the tropical disturbance will form into a tropical depression or a named tropical storm within 48 hours, and an 80 percent chance that will occur in the next five days.

If the system keeps moving northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula, the agency might issue “Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories” later today.

UPDATE (5:20 p.m. Thursday): The National Hurricane Center has begun to issue public advisories on this system, which is now being called Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, and a tropical storm warning has been issued for the northwestern Bahamas. Forecasters expect this system to strengthen into a tropical depression by Friday and a tropical storm by early Saturday morning as it moves close to the southeastern region of Florida. The storm could make landfall Saturday afternoon in east-central Florida or move just off the coast, according to the official forecast map issued by the hurricane center. (see map above)

“This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday, especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian,” the agency said.

The Atlantic hurricane season is at its historical peak this week, and weather experts say there are multiple signs there will be an uptick in tropical storm activity during the next few weeks and into October.

Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality or like him on Facebook. Find NJ.com on Facebook.