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That said, this time around things could be different.

On Friday Eurasia Group raised its 2020 high end base case oil target to $75 per barrel, based on “rising risk to oil infrastructure in the region.” If conflict breaks out, which the firm’s Middle East and North Africa head Ayham Kamel places at 30% likelihood, prices could climb as high as $95.

While production hasn’t been impacted — or at least not yet — the lasting impact could be greater, depending on Iran’s retaliation. This could be especially true if Iran targets production in Iraq, which Morse said is one possible scenario, and Again Capital’s John Kilduff said is the “key piece to this puzzle.”

“Iraq’s southern oil output and exports via Basra hang in the balance. If that gets hit, oil prices will spike higher,” he said in an email to CNBC.

Iraq is OPEC’s second largest oil producer, pumping around 4.6 million barrels per day in December, and the country has been caught between Iran and the United States for years. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.’s Michael Bradley noted that unlike Saudi Arabia, which was able to restore production quickly, the likelihood that Iraq could do the same is slim. “Certainly Saudi could quickly put oil into the markets and stabilize price, but beyond them, there really isn’t any spare capacity outside of Iran,” he said to CNBC in an email.

He added that traders aren’t pricing in “a ton of risk premium for things to get out of control” in the Middle East, despite tight supply as the United States dials back its production and crude enters a seasonally weak period of the year.