Tropical Storm Ian’s impact with Florida was baffling forecasters Sunday because of disagreement among some key computer forecast models. While dueling predictions are starting to align more with a possible landfall in west Central Florida, the National Hurricane Center cautioned that “uncertainty is still high.”
In its 5 p.m. update, the hurricane center said a Tropical Storm Watch had been issued for the lower Florida Keys, from the Seven Mile Bridge south to Key West, including the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Hurricane Warnings remain for Grand Cayman and parts of Cuba, where hurricane conditions are expected in the next 36 hours.
The NHC said Tropical Storm Ian had lost a bit of its punch Sunday evening, with maximum-sustained winds dropping to 45 mph from 50 mph earlier in the day. At 5 p.m., the storm was located about 220 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman and 495 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba. Ian was moving west-northwest at 12 mph.
“Some strengthening is forecast tonight, followed by more rapid strengthening on Monday and Tuesday,” the forecasters said. “Ian is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday.”
Ian is expected to have maximum-sustained winds of 80 mph in the next 24 hours and 130 mph in 60 hours before losing strength as it interacts with Florida.
The storm was expected to keep a northwestward motion through Sunday night and then switch to a north-northwestward track on Monday and early Tuesday as it moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or over western Cuba.
“From there, the track guidance still diverges at days 3-5 as Ian is forecast to move northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico,” the hurricane center said.
Computer forecast models agree Ian will hit Florida but don’t necessarily on where.
Two models, the UKMET and ECMWF, showed the storm tracking east and making landfall in west Central Florida. Two other models, the GFS and HWRF, were showing the storm moving more west and taking it into the Florida panhandle. Early Sunday there was between 220-250 miles difference between the model tracks in the forecast for Day 4 and Day 5 for Ian, the NHC said.
But at 5 p.m. Sunday, the NHC said, “the GFS has trended slightly eastward for the past few cycles, which has brought the multi-model consensus aids a bit eastward as well.”
The hurricane center shifted its projected path for Ian slightly east, only about 15-20 nautical miles in the extended range.
“Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges, since uncertainty is still high and future adjustments may be required,” the hurricane center said.
Florida will be impacted by the storm, regardless of where it may come ashore, Gov. Ron DeSantis said Sunday.
From Tallahassee, DeSantis urged Floridians Sunday to be prepared for the worst and pay attention to any shifts in the storm’s path.
“We are continuing to monitor Tropical Storm Ian,” DeSantis told reporters gathered at the state Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee.
John Cangialosi, a senior hurricane specialist at the Miami-based hurricane center, said it was not yet clear exactly where Ian will hit hardest. He said Floridians should begin preparations, including gathering supplies for potential power outages.
“At this point really the right message for those living in Florida is that you have to watch forecasts and get ready and prepare yourself for potential impact from this tropical system,” he said.
David Sharp, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Melbourne, said now is time for Central Florida residents to pay attention to Ian’s forecast.
“Stay up to date with the forecasts,” Sharp said. “Small changes in the forecast can end up making a big difference by the time it gets to us on day four or five.”
“You always want to plan for the most likely scenario at the minimum and prepare for a reasonable worst case scenario which means how bad it could get,” Sharp said. “The current forecast is what we call the most likely scenario so with that we are concerned with flooding rain, with tropical storm force winds, and hurricane gusts and tornadoes.”
As for when the Ian could have the greatest impact on Central Florida, Sharp pointed to Wednesday.
“The most likely time is Wednesday afternoon, evening about that time, so you definitely want to have things done by Wednesday morning, Wednesday afternoon the latest,” Sharp said. “Before we see the winds we are going to see rain … so you don’t want to be running around when the roads might be flooded or there’s tornado warnings.”
“The hazards that we’re concerned most about this time is flooding rain … also there’s a concern for tropical storm force winds with hurricane gusts right now,” Sharp said.
Across Central Florida, schools were monitoring Ian’s progress.
Bethune Cookman University, a private historically black university in Daytona Beach, announced a mandatory campus evacuation beginning Monday at noon with no return date set yet and students in residents halls were encouraged to evacuate as soon as Sunday.
At BCU classes will be moved online only on Tuesday, according to a letter by the Office of Academic Affairs on Saturday.
At the University of Central Florida, campus will remain open with a status update coming on Monday to decide university operations for the coming week.
Rollin College in Winter Park, will announce a decision on whether or not to close campus on Sunday, according to their official social media.
The University of South Florida in Tampa will keep campus operations open and classes as scheduled pending an update Sunday evening, according to the official university website.
Florida State University and the University of Florida are continuing to monitor the storm before announcing any changes to campus operations or classes, according to their official social media pages.
Both universities ask their students to plan and prepare as well as ensure they are up to date with their university’s emergency alert system.