Former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch, center, arrives on Capitol Hill, Friday, Oct. 11, 2019, in Washington, as she is scheduled to testify before congressional lawmakers on Friday as part of the House impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump. AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite
Yovanovitch testified behind closed doors that Trump and Giuliani wanted her removed since the summer of 2018 because she refused to let Giuliani use the US Embassy in Ukraine in his efforts to obtain political dirt on former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden.
She said she felt “shocked” and “threatened” by the attacks leveled against her.
Yovanovitch also told Congress a top State Department official confirmed to her that her recall in May came despite her having “done nothing wrong.”
Multiple witnesses, including Bill Taylor, now the US’s chief envoy in Ukraine, and George Kent, a senior State Department official, have corroborated Yovanovitch’s claims.
Yovanovitch raised concerns with senior State Department officials about Giuliani before her ouster, but despite having their own concerns, they didn’t think they could stop him. After Yovanovitch was recalled, the acting assistant secretary of state, Philip T. Reeker, told her Secretary of State Mike Pompeo “was no longer able” to protect her from Trump.
Michael McKinley, who served as a top deputy to Pompeo, quit a few days before his testimony to Congress because of the State Department’s unwillingness to issue a statement supporting Yovanovitch. He also testified that several department employees had their careers derailed for political reasons.
Several government officials, including Taylor and Kent, have already testified to Congress behind closed doors, and their revelations paint a damaging portrait of a concerted effort across the administration to leverage US foreign policy to pressure Ukraine into acceding to Trump’s demands.
Specifically, the president wanted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to make a public statement committing to investigate the Bidens and a bogus conspiracy theory suggesting it was Ukraine, not Russia, that interfered in the 2016 election.
Officials also outlined the lengths White House officials went to in order to conceal records of a July 25 phone call between Trump and Zelensky.
Witnesses have testified that five men were part of an effort to condition security assistance to Ukraine and a White House meeting on Zelensky publicly announcing the investigations Trump wanted.
The men are Giuliani; the US ambassador to the European Union, Gordon Sondland; the special representative to Ukraine at the time, Kurt Volker; the acting White House chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney; and the outgoing energy secretary, Rick Perry.
The president’s defenders have said he did nothing wrong and that this is a normal part of how diplomacy and foreign policy are conducted.
But national security veterans, legal scholars, and at times Trump’s own officials who have testified have suggested his actions open him up to a variety of charges including abuse of power, bribery, extortion, misappropriation of taxpayer funds, and soliciting foreign interference in the 2020 election.
Eight more diplomats and national security officials are expected to testify publicly in the next week. Here’s the latest impeachment hearings schedule.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection has seized thousands of falsified COVID-19 vaccine cards from China in Memphis, Tenn.
Border Patrol agents have had 121 seizures of fake vaccination cards so far this fiscal year, amounting to 3,017 falsified cards confiscated, according to a statement from the agency on released Friday.
One of the shipments described in the statement included was a package from Shenzhen, China, going to New Orleans labeled “PAPER CARD, PAPER.” The shipment contained 51 falsified vaccination cards.
Officers already knew the shipment would contain false documents, according to the statement. The shipments with fake vaccination cards are “always from China” and are commonly labeled “Paper Greeting Cards/ Use For-Greeting Card” and “PAPER PAPER CARD.”
The fake cards have the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) logo along with blank lines to fill in information such as name and the dates the shots were given. The cards normally come in packs of 20, 50 or 100.
However, the statement says there are multiple ways to tell these cards are fake. For example, the cards contain typos, misspelled Spanish verbiage on the back and they are not imported from a medical facility.
“These vaccinations are free and available everywhere,” Michael Neipert, Area Port Director of Memphis, said.
“If you do not wish to receive a vaccine, that is your decision. But don’t order a counterfeit, waste my officer’s time, break the law, and misrepresent yourself. CBP Officers at the Area Port of Memphis remain committed to stopping counterfeit smuggling and helping to protect our communities. But just know that when you order a fake vaxx card, you are using my officers time as they also seize fentanyl and methamphetamines,” Neipert added.
Falsifying vaccination cards is a crime that can land someone a fine and five years of prison time.
News of the false cards come as cities across the U.S. have begun to mandate proof of vaccination via a vaccine card in restaurants, theaters and other indoor businesses.
The newest requirement by localities was driven in part by the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus, which has shown to penetrate the vaccine, causing breakthrough infections. However, the majority of those with breakthrough infections have reported mild symptoms.
Matthew Dyman, a public affairs specialist for the CBP, told The Hill he has looked to see if fake vaccine cards were confiscated by border patrol agents in other areas, “but as of right now the cards are only being found shipped through Memphis.”
The cards have only been found in Memphis as it is the “shipping hub location” for the CBP and “has the ability to screen cargo,” Dyman said.
BOSTON — Actresses and chief executives are among 50 people arrested in a nationwide college admissions cheating scam, authorities announced Tuesday.
According to charging documents, actresses Felicity Huffman and Lori Loughlin are among those involved facing charges.
The suspects allegedly paid bribes of up to $6 million to get their kids into elite colleges, including Yale, Stanford, Georgetown and USC.
In most cases, the students did not know their admission was contingent on a bribe.
University athletic coaches and administrators of college entrance exams were also among those arrested.
The alleged scam centered around a man in California who ran a business helping students get into the college of their choice.
Authorities say parents would pay him a predetermined amount, with full knowledge of what they were doing. He would then steer the money to one of two places: either an SAT or ACT administrator, or a college athletic coach.
The coaches would allegedly arrange a fake profile that listed the prospective student as an athlete, and exam administrators would either hire proctors to take the test or correct the answers of a student.
The bribes ranged from a few thousand dollars to up to 6 million, according to officials. The charging documents, unsealed in Boston federal court, are more than 200 pages long.
They allege that Huffman and her husband “made a purported charitable contribution of $15,000…to participate in the college entrance exam cheating scheme on behalf of her eldest daughter. Huffman later made arrangements to pursue the scheme a second time, for her younger daughter, before deciding not to do so.”
Federal agents say they have recorded telephone calls with Huffman and a cooperating witness.
The documents say that Loughlin and her husband “agreed to pay bribes totaling $500,000 in exchange for having their two daughters designated as recruits to the USC crew team — despite the fact that they did not participate in crew — thereby facilitating their admission to USC.”
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is finalizing guidance aimed at clarifying what Americans who have received COVID-19 vaccines should and shouldn’t do, according to two sources at the agency familiar with its drafting.
The upcoming guidance, first reported by Politico, is expected to include that fully vaccinated individuals should be able to gather in small groups with other people who have also been vaccinated. The CDC currently does not recommend in-person gatherings with the general public, saying “gathering virtually or with the people you live with is the safest choice.”
Even for people who have been fully vaccinated, other mitigation measures will still be recommended, including wearing a mask in public and social distancing.
A source at the CDC who is familiar with the guidance confirms that it won’t be released Thursday, when it was expected to be. There was no word on when it would be issued.
At the White House COVID-19 response briefing Monday, President Biden’s chief medical adviser, Dr. Anthony Fauci, previewed the guidance by saying that small gatherings among people who are “doubly vaccinated” are low risk — “so low that you would not have to wear a mask, that you could have a good social gathering within the home.”
Both Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines require two doses; Johnson & Johnson‘s will only require one shot. That vaccine received an Emergency Use Authorization from the Food and Drug Administration over the weekend and doses are beginning to be administered this week.
The guidance comes as the nation is at a crossroads in its fight against the virus. In the last month, average daily cases nationwide have fallen more than 50%, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, but that progress has plateaued. In the last week, data from the CDC indicates average new cases have ticked up nearly 2%.
CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said at Monday’s briefing that she remained “deeply concerned about a potential shift in the trajectory of the pandemic.” States around the country, including New York, Massachusetts and Arkansas, are loosening COVID-related restrictions on businesses, adding to fears that the U.S. could be letting its guard down too early. On Tuesday, Texas became the third state to rescind its statewide mask mandate in recent days, joining Montana and Iowa.
At the same time, the pace of vaccinations continues to increase, and with more Americans vaccinated, the need for new guidance on what this population can safely do has grown. But Walensky stressed that now is not the time to resume travel or disregard other safety measures.
“The goal in those first 100 days has always been to sort of make sure that we are in a place to be out of this pandemic,” she said. “At 70,000 cases per day, we’re not in that place right now.”
More countries reported their first coronavirus fatalities and the toll grew in places such as China, as the number of deaths from the epidemic globally nears 3,000.
Hours after the U.S. reported its first fatality, Australia on Sunday announced its first death from the disease known as Covid-19. So did Thailand, more than a month after it became the first country outside of China to report an infection. Italy added five more deaths, with 528 new confirmed cases since Saturday.
“¡Buenos días a todos! Empezamos con las noticias”, anuncia a bordo de un destartalado colectivo de Caracas un grupo de jóvenes periodistas que se apresta a contar, sin control oficial, lo último de la crisis que viveVenezuela en más de dos meses de protestas.
Sujetándose del pasamanos para no caer en cada frenazo, María Gabriela Fernández y Dereck Blanco se asoman, ante la mirada curiosa de los pasajeros, detrás de un marco de cartón negro y perilla roja que imitan a un televisor, bajo un rótulo en letras azules: “El Bus TV”.
“Esta iniciativa surge de la necesidad de romper con el cerco comunicacional que hay en el país y llevar noticias veraces a través de un transporte tan masivo como el autobús”, explicó a AFP la redactora creativa Claudia Lizardo.
En tres minutos, Bus TV informa a los pasajeros -más habituados a la música que pone a todo volumen el chofer-, sobre seguridad, salud, deportes, espectáculos y, por supuesto, economía y política: infaltables en un país con severa escasez e inflación, envuelto en una ola de protestas que deja 68 muertos.
“Cada bomba lacrimógena cuesta 40 dólares, al cambio del dólar paralelo unos 200.000 bolívares, es decir un salario mínimo integral”, dice Blanco, al referirse a los enfrentamientos entre fuerzas de seguridad y manifestantes opositores, que no se ven en las pantallas de televisión.
Entrando de primera a los autobuses, la periodista y productora Laura Castillo negocia con los conductores. Casi siempre se les permite subir, sin cobrarles el pasaje.
Laura Castillo (izq.), Maria Gabriela Fernandez (centro) y Dereck Blanco (der.) presentan las noticias en colectivo. / AFP
“Es una maravillosa idea. Me gusta cuando las cosas son claras, sin violencia. Me parece muy importante que nos informen de lo que está ocurriendo, para abrir los ojos”, declaró Glenda Guerrero, ama de casa de 68 años, tras escuchar atenta el noticiero.
Suben y bajan, en las mañanas, tomando varias rutas de la capital. “¡Qué valientes!”, les grita una mujer. “¡Están locos!”, afirma un señor.
Blanco, presentador en un telenoticiero nacional, se sumó al Bus TV al admitir que hay “presiones” oficiales que impiden la difusión de ciertas noticias: “Es un reto, el periodista debe reinventarse para llevar la información a la gente”.
Dereck Blanco, Laura Castillo, Maria Gabriela Fernandez Y Abril Mejias se dirigen a una parada de colectivo para informar. / AFP
Con seis periodistas y artistas, el Bus TV arrancó al 28 de mayo para marcar el décimo aniversario del cierre de Radio Caracas Televisión (RCTV), el que era el canal más antiguo del país, crítico del gobierno del entonces presidente Hugo Chávez, fallecido en 2013.
Su sucesor, Nicolás Maduro, casualmente un ex chofer de autobús, acusa a un sector de la prensa de una campaña de desprestigio en su contra como parte de una conspiración para derrocarlo.
Pero la ONG Espacio Público y el Sindicato Nacional de Periodistas (SNTP) denuncian que el gobierno “censura” a los medios que le son incómodos.
Los jóvenes periodistas embarcan en un colectivo para dar las últimas noticias sin censura. / AFP
Ha sacado del aire programas radiales y a la cadena internacional CNN en español, y a algunos diarios les limita la entrega papel -monopolio del Estado- para dejarlos fuera de circulación, aseguran.
Varios medios, como el diario El Nacional -el principal del país- y el digital La Patilla, fueron demandados y otros comprados por figuras vinculadas al gobierno para cambiar su línea editorial, según Espacio Público.
“El gobierno ha ganado el pulso de la hegemonía comunicacional. Las fuentes de información son entonces las redes sociales, pero no todos tienen acceso a ellas y mucho allí es rumor. Bus TV informa lo que no sale en los medios tradicionales”, comentó Castillo.
Los pasajeros escuchan. / AFP
La iniciativa se extiende, cuenta la periodista, y ya hay Bus TV en la ciudad de Valencia (oeste) y otro en Puerto La Cruz (este), adaptado a la situación local.
Venezuela, donde el SNTP ha registrado 300 agresiones a periodistas durante las protestas, ocupa el puesto 137 -de 180 países- en el ránking de libertad prensa de Reporteros Sin Fronteras.
El Bus TV, dice Fernández, quien trabaja en un periódico nacional y usa a diario el colectivo, informa de la realidad cotidiana del venezolano que no reflejan los medios tradicionales: “Somos una alternativa necesaria”, aseguró.
“En economía: Un kilo de alitas de pollo cuesta 9.700 bolívares; el venezolano que gana sueldo mínimo debe de trabajar un día y medio para poder pagarlo”, prosiguen Blanco y Fernández en la lectura de noticias.
Este día, el Bus TV informó de la reaparición de enfermedades que estaban erradicadas, de la pérdida de peso de muchos venezolanos por mala alimentación, del histórico éxito de la vinotinto en el Mundial Sub-20 de Fútbol y, en espectáculos, del mensaje de solidaridad de Ricky Martin con Venezuela.
En política, continúan, “el presidente Maduro cambiará la Constitución de Chávez sin consultar antes a los venezolanos en un referendo”.
“Y mientras tanto, las panaderías continúan sin pan”, concluye el noticiero, entre aplausos de los pasajeros: “¡Muchas gracias!. Esto fue el Bus TV. Seguiremos informando”.
Image caption
Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart vivió solo 35 años, pero su basto legado musical lo comenzó cuando era un niño de 5 años.
Es el mejor lanzamiento de 2016, y este genio de la música ni siquiera canta. Tampoco toca algún instrumento de esta grabación, ni está vivo.
Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart (1756-1791), una de las mentes más prolíficas de la música clásica, vendió 1,25 millones de discos compactos en noviembre, convirtiéndose en el mejor lanzamiento del año para Billboard.
El sitio especializado en la industria musical dio a conocer la noticia, pero hay algunos detalles que muestran la verdadera razón por la que Mozart logró ese asombroso lanzamiento.
“Mozart 225: La nueva edición completa” es una de las mayores recopilaciones de la obra del austriaco que se haya puesto en circulación: 200 discos compactos en un gran paquete lanzado el 28 de octubre pasado.
Son 240 horas de música interpretada por 600 solistas y 60 orquestas que fueron editadas y curadas en 18 meses por el sello Universal.
Billboard cuenta cada CD del paquete como una venta individual, lo quiere decir que esta gran complicación vendió en realidad 6.250 piezasque multiplicadas por los 200 discos que forman cada caja, da lugar al número mágico de los 1,25 millones de ventas.
Image copyright Getty Images
Image caption
Mozart demostró desde pequeño dotes únicos para el piano, pero también tocó el violón y fue director.
En la era de las ventas en línea de discos, además de las reproducciones mediante servicios como Spotify o Apple Music, el cantante canadiense Drake logró vender 852.000 copias de su álbum Viewsen una semana.
De todos modos, las 6.250 copias vendidas de “Mozart 225”, titulado así por el 225 aniversario de su muerte, es igualmente un buen dato si se considera que este año se han vendido apenas 50 millones de discos, un 11.6% menos que en 2015, según Billboard.
Lo que además no queda en duda es la genialidad de Mozart, un hombre capaz de componer tanta música en su corta vida como para ocupar 200 discos.
Driving the news: The restrictions will end on Dec. 31, according to Munoz. He said the decision to lift travel restrictions was recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“The restrictions gave us time to understand Omicron and we know our existing vaccines work against Omicron, esp boosted,” Munoz said in a tweet.
People traveling from the countries will now be subject to the same protocols the U.S. has imposed elsewhere — requiring foreigners be vaccinated and that all travelers get a negative COVID-19 test within a day of their departure.
Flashback: President Biden in late November restricted entry fromSouth Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique and Malawi at the recommendation of medical experts and the COVID-19 response team.
The restrictions apply to people who were in the countries during the 14-day period before they tried to enter the U.S. It does not apply to American citizens and permanent residents.
Reuters first reported on the decision to lift the restrictions.
Between the lines: Officials in South Africa had criticized countries that imposed travel bans on the nation, saying it was being punished, rather than praised, “for its advanced genomic sequencing and the ability to detect new variants quicker.”
The World Health Organization also condemned restrictions, saying they place a “heavy burden on lives and livelihoods.”
In a sign of a potentially widening, interparty schism, top lawmakers in the Congressional Progressive Caucus on Tuesday said they remain steadfastly committed to the priorities they outlined in April to tackle issues including paid leave, climate change, housing, health care reform and immigration. The leader of the bloc, Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), said they would rather authorize those programs for fewer years rather than remove some fully from the final bill to save money.
Trump cites ‘disaster’ trial runs for mail-in voting that produced missing ballots, delayed results and litigation.
A co-founder of the Federalist Society, which famously compiled a list from which President Trump selected his two Supreme Court nominees, described the president’s Thursday tweet about “delay[ing] the election until people can properly, securely and safely vote” as grounds for “immediate impeachment.”
Northwestern University Law Professor Steven Calabresi wrote in a New York Times opinion piece published late Thursday that Trump “should be removed unless he relents” the sentiment expressed in the tweet.
Calabresi said he voted for Trump in 2016, and has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980. He added that he staunchly defended Trump against what he called an “unconstitutional investigation by Robert Mueller” into alleged collusion with Russia and penned another op-ed opposing the president’s impeachment earlier this year.
“But I am frankly appalled by the president’s recent tweet seeking to postpone the November election,” he wrote. “Until recently, I had taken as political hyperbole the Democrats’ assertion that President Trump is a fascist.
“But this latest tweet is fascistic and is itself grounds for the president’s immediate impeachment again … and his removal from office by the Senate.”
In the tweet, Trump slammed the prospect of mass mail-in voting as a prelude to the “most inaccurate and fraudulent election in history” and a “great embarrassment to the USA.”
Calabresi emphasized that the U.S. “has never canceled or delayed a presidential election. Not in 1864, when President Abraham Lincoln was expected to lose and the South looked as if it might defeat the North. Not in 1932 in the depths of the Great Depression. Not in 1944 during World War II.”
The professor went on to say that the date of each election is fixed by an 1845 federal law and noted it is up to each state to determine whether they will implement universal mail-in voting, since “Article II of the Constitution explicitly gives the states total power over the selection of presidential electors.”
Meanwhile, Calabresi called on “every Republican in Congress” to inform Trump that postponing the election would be “illegal, unconstitutional, and without precedent in American history.
“Anyone who says otherwise should never be elected to Congress again.”
New at Five: Working together to find forever homes for more than 120 animals. The Martinsville Henry County spca along with The North Shore Animal League America and The American Humane Association teamed up for the biggest animal rescue and transport to date. WDBJ7’s Danielle Staub was there for all the action and has the full story tonight. nat dogs…. One after another, puppies, kittens and then the big dogs are loaded into the moblie units for transfer. Keisha Wooten, spca Staff “a lot o these guys, this is their second chance. a lot of them wouldn’t have gotten this opportunity otherwise if it wasn’t for north shore.” The Martinsville spca transfers animals to other shelters to help make room for the overflow. Early Tuesday morning, North Shore Animal League America and the America Humane Association collaborated for the biggest transfer to date in Martinsville. More than 120 animals were loaded onto the mobile units to start their journey to Port Washington, New York. Cindy Szczudlo, Rescue Manager,” It’s really exciting, ya know we are excited to recieve these animals and find loving homes for them and it’s a great opportunity for us to clear out almost all the animals here in Martinsville so they have an opportunity to rescue more.” The Animal League says it is very likely all these animals will be adopted by the end of the week. Szczudlo “We are th largest no kill shelter in the world and that affords us the opportunity to have our name out there and so many people coming to our shelter every day.” As happy as volunteers and staff are to see them find a new home, sometimes, it’s hard to say good bye. Wooten “laughs, h does his little dance in the morning. And as they get to know you, there are some guys that come in shy and as you work with them and everything, they start to trust you, and that’s basically just getting them prepared for their home.” stand up Everyone packed up and headed out. And now rooms that used to be filled with puppies are empty and quiet. but the director says, these cages will be full, within the week. Nicole Harris, Executive Director “honestly w could probably do it today. but we are going to slowly graduate everybody back into the shelter, so probably within the next three days we will be full again.” The spca says controling the animal population in Martinsville and Henry County continues to be an issue so they try to education the public, as much as possible. “Constantly talk t everybody about over breeding, about getting their animals fixed and this is obviously an aftermath of un altered animals, this many animals in a shelter at any given moment. Without this partner ship these guys could have faced death.” In Martinsville, Danielle Staub wdbj7 What
When former Vice President Joe Biden proclaimed “I will win South Carolina,” at Tuesday’s Democratic debate in Charleston, it wasn’t just braggadocio — all of the most recent South Carolina polls suggest he’s right.
In fact, nearly every poll taken in February found Biden to have a sizable lead on his fellow candidates.
For instance, in a Monmouth University telephone poll of 454 likely Democratic primary voters taken just ahead of that debate — from February 23 to 25 — Biden had a 20 percentage-point lead on his nearest rival in the state, Sen. Bernie Sanders. (Sanders is still considered the frontrunner in the race nationally.)
Overall, that poll found Biden to have 36 percent support in the state; Sanders nearly tied with entrepreneur Tom Steyer, with 16 and 15 percent support, respectively; Sen. Elizabeth Warren in fourth with 8 percent support; and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar with 6 and 4 percent support, respectively. The only other candidate on the Democratic ballot Saturday, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, had 1 percent support.
The Monmouth poll does have a 4.6 percentage point margin of error, but that margin is small enough to protect Biden’s lead. It could, however, mean that the race for second is even closer than it appears, with either Steyer, Sanders, or Warren occupying the number two spot.
While a number of other recent polls found similar results — a February 17-25 poll from Clemson University found the former vice president to have an 18 percentage point lead and a February 26-27 Emerson College survey a 16 percentage-point lead — Biden’s lead isn’t quite that strong across the board.
A Post and Courier poll of 543 likely primary voters taken February 23-27, for example, saw Biden only 4 percentage points ahead of Sanders, at 28 percent support to the senator’s 24 (with Steyer and Warren again in third and fourth). Unlike the Monmouth results, Biden’s lead in this poll is within its 5.1 percentage point margin of error.
All these polls suggest Biden will likely win the South Carolina primary, and that the only question is what his margin of victory will be.
That’s good news for Biden, who has had disappointing finishes in 2020 Democratic primary contests thus far. Once the national frontrunner, he finished fourth in the Iowa caucuses, fifth in the New Hampshire primary, and a distant second in the Nevada caucuses.
He is counting on South Carolina to reverse that trend, allowing him to pick up much-needed pledged delegates (Sanders currently has a 30 delegate lead on him), and — ahead of Super Tuesday’s 14 primaries and one caucus — change the narrative around his campaign. A big win in South Carolina would be the most powerful argument the Biden campaign could make that he’s the candidate best suited to unite Democrats’ diverse base as the party prepares to take on President Donald Trump in the fall.
South Carolina is seen as a test of candidates’ ability to win over black voters
South Carolina is the first state in the Democratic primary calendar in which the majority of the electorate is black, and as such is typically seen as a test of candidates’ black support. It is a particularly important test for Biden, who has long said this key Democratic demographic makes up an important part of his base.
“All I know is, I am leading everybody, combined, with black voters,” Biden said at Vice News presidential forum in late January. “Name me anybody who has remotely close to the support I have in the African American community nationally.”
Joe Biden takes a selfie with black supporters in Columbia, South Carolina.Sean Rayford/Getty Images
It is true that Biden’s black national support seemed unassailable in January, but that has changed in recent weeks according to a FiveThirtyEight analysis, with his average advantage over Sanders among that demographic now less than 10 percentage points. And as Vox’s Li Zhou reports, there’s a generational divide in Biden’s support — older black voters are much more likely to back him.
Still, in South Carolina, the former vice president is leading among black voters as a whole — an East Carolina University (ECU) poll taken February 23-24, for instance, found 34 percent of likely African American primary voters supported Biden, compared to the 24 percent who supported Steyer, and the 22 percent who supported Sanders. (The poll has a margin of error of 3.37 percentage points.)
Buttigieg and Klobuchar have struggled to win black support so far — and it would appear they continue to do so in South Carolina. ECU found Buttigieg to have just over 2 percent support from black voters, while Klobuchar received 0.4 percent.
Given that South Carolina’s electorate is 60 percent black, these numbers present serious challenges for both candidates. (They also present strategic and narrative concerns for both campaigns down the road — more on that later.)
Warren, whose base of support also tends to be less diverse, is doing slightly better than Klobuchar or Buttigieg among black South Carolina Democrats — her black support in the ECU poll was about 6 percent. Again, however, such a level of support means it will be difficult for her to compete with Biden, Sanders, and Steyer for delegates.
The frontrunners in South Carolina are Biden, Sanders, and Steyer
The vice president’s confidence about his chances Saturday is in marked contrast to how he described some of the previous races. He admitted during the New Hampshire primary debate that he fully expected to lose that state’s primary, saying, “I took a hit in Iowa, and I’ll probably take a hit here,” and didn’t bother to stick around to watch the results come in with his supporters. Instead, he left — for South Carolina.
It was a signal of just how important the state is to Biden’s campaign — in fact, Anton Gunn, Barack Obama’s 2008 South Carolina political director, told Vox’s Li Zhou that South Carolina is literally make-or-break for the former vice president.
“If Joe Biden wins by a small margin, then I think his campaign is on life support,” Gunn said. “If he comes in second or worse, I think he’s done.”
How large a margin Biden might win by depends on the poll one is looking at, but polling averages suggest a Biden victory could be the largest percentage-point win of the 2020 primary cycle so far — RealClearPolitics’ polling average puts him 12.6 percentage points ahead of Sanders.
RealClearPolitics’ 2020 South Carolina Democratic primary polling average, which shows a sizable Biden lead.RealClearPolitics
The polls are clear — Biden is the state race’s frontrunner. And he received an important boost Wednesday: an endorsement from Rep. James Clyburn, one of Congress’s most powerful black Democrats — and a man seen as a kingmaker in the state.
Sanders has nevertheless gained ground in the state in recent weeks — his RealClearPolitics polling average spiked on February 12, the day after he won the New Hampshire primary.
Richland County vice director Dalhi Myers, who began the primary cycle a Biden backer and now supports Sanders, told Zhou that Sanders’s successes so far (he also won in Nevada) have captured the attention of many South Carolina Democrats.
“People aren’t going to vote for someone who can’t win,” Myers said. “If you’re the most electable, you’re going to have to get elected somewhere.”
One particular difficulty for Sanders is that polling suggests he will not be able to rely on what has been a key demographic for him in past contests — young voters. In New Hampshire, for instance, Sanders received more of the youth vote than all of his rivals combined. But Monmouth’s work found 31 percent of respondents between the ages of 18 and 49 backed Biden, compared to the 18 percent of 18- to 49-year-olds who said they plan to vote for Sanders. Other polls, like ECU’s, also found Biden leading Sanders among young voters.
Closing Biden’s lead both among young voters, and South Carolina voters generally, will require Sanders to pick up last-minute support from what polls suggest is a significant number of undecided voters. Monmouth’s pollsters, for instance, found 15 percent of likely voters hadn’t yet decided on a candidate as of last Tuesday, and weren’t yet leaning towards anyone.
These undecided voters also present an opportunity for Steyer, who is battling Sanders for second place. South Carolina marks the first contest in which the entrepreneur has been considered a frontrunner, in part because he has invested heavily in the state. He’s spent more than $18 million in advertising in there. And he has been praised for his strong canvassing operation, as well as his practice of hiring black businesses for campaign work.
“If you’re black, you probably get two to three mailers from Steyer a week,” Democratic strategist and former Booker campaign adviser Clay Middleton told Zhou. “I even saw his commercial on the weather channel.”
Tom Steyer speaks with supporters following a February town hall in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images
The effort has paid off in the polls for Steyer, but it is not clear it will allow him to do well enough to pick up delegates.
South Carolina’s 54 pledged delegates will be awarded both based on the results statewide and in its seven congressional districts. To get pledged delegates — either statewide or in the congressional districts— a candidate must clear a threshold of at least 15 percent, with 19 delegates available to those who meet that criteria statewide and 35 on offer to those performing well enough on the district level.
Whether Steyer clears the 15 percent mark depends on the poll, and his RealClearPolitics polling average is around 14 percent, making it unclear whether he can expect to receive any delegates statewide. His polling would seem to put him in strong contention for receiving delegates on the district level, particularly in districts that play to his strengths. District 6, for instance, has more women than men, a large black population, and a large population with a median income of less than $50,000 — all groups with which Steyer has support approaching 20 percent, according to Monmouth’s work.
Any delegates Steyer receives in South Carolina would be his first. He is unlikely to receive enough to become the frontrunner, but a strong showing could give him enough delegates to surpass Warren’s current total of eight, and would put him in a competitive position for at least some of Super Tuesday’s contests.
South Carolina sets the nation up for Super Tuesday
Super Tuesday is in just three days, and candidates will be competing for 1,344 pledged delegates. Billionaire and former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg will be on the ballot for the first time, and the effect his $500-million advertising campaign will have on the race will become apparent.
But Bloomberg’s impact isn’t the only unknown — it’s also difficult to predict results in a number of primaries due to a lack of polling; Alabama’s last 2020 presidential primary poll, for instance, was taken in July 2019.
That makes South Carolina an important harbinger of contests to come. As my colleague Li Zhou has explained, “Historically, at least four Southern states — Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia, and Mississippi — have voted for the same Democratic nominee as South Carolina, giving this candidate a windfall of delegates.”
Should Biden have a decisive win in South Carolina, expect his campaign to regain some of its lost steam, possibly picking up wins in not just those four southern states, but collecting a sizable delegate haul in places like Texas as well. Similarly, a strong showing from Sanders would burnish his frontrunner status, boosting his argument that his coalition is more diverse than his 2016 one. And a better-than-expected showing from Steyer could give him momentum, particularly given he has made considerable financial investments in Super Tuesday states.
While Super Tuesday following so closely on South Carolina’s heels means the state’s winners can expect benefits, it also gives the state’s losers little incentive to drop out, as they hold out hope for quick reversals of fortune.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has departed for Hanoi by train for talks with US President Donald Trump.
Although he flew to Singapore when he met Donald Trump in Singapore last year, it seems the long-standing tradition of long-distance train travel for North Korean leaders is still going strong.
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