São Paulo – Oil barrel prices have bottomed out to their lowest in two years this week due to heightened supply and weak demand. The industry expects prices to remain around US$ 85 per barrel of the Brent Crude oil type (traded on the London Stock Exchange) for the next few months. If the trend bears out, major oil companies will have to revise their investment and debt plans. Even major global producing and exporting countries will need to cut down their spending.

According to the global news director at New York’s commodities consulting firm Platts, John Kingston, oil prices are bearish because the world economy is in “big trouble” and recovering slowly. Conversely, production and supply are on the way up.

“Demand is sluggish and growth is very slow around the world, which is still depending on the recovery of the United States’ economy,” Kingston told ANBA.

The director of the Brazilian Infrastructure Centre (CBIE), Adriano Pires also believes the world economy is recovering very slowly. He remarks that recent conflicts in Middle East countries like Palestine and Syria, coupled with the Ukrainian crisis, had postponed the price drop. Besides, the United States’ output is strong right now and investment projects rolled out over the past few years are beginning to bear fruit, causing exploration to increase.

Pires notes, however, that the commodity’s price has ups and downs. It peaked in 1973 and 1989, and plummeted in 1986 and throughout the 1990s. In 2008, however, oil sold for as much as US$ 140. By October 15th, 2012, the Brent barrel was selling for US$ 115.07. A year later, it cost US$ 110.86. This Thursday (16th), it closed at US$ 86.12.

Prices may keep falling, but not much further. Pires expects them to remain close to US$ 80. They may even increase slightly in the days leading up to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) meeting scheduled for late November. Countries like Venezuela and Libya want to reign in output so prices will rise, driving up revenues. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, for their part, would rather wait longer before slowing the output down.

The impact will likely not be as strongly felt by the United States. The country is producing oil domestically through unconventional gas extraction, thus reducing its dependence on imports and their influence on the country. Extraction of this type of gas and oil costs more, but Kingston claims some producers can “withstand” prices as low as US$ 70. “It all depends on the extraction technology and the productivity it affords,” he says.

The effects on Brazil

Low oil prices may influence the Brazilian federal government and Petrobras’ decisions in the short, medium and long run. According to Pires, plummeting oil prices relieve pressure on the government to raise fuel prices, which have been kept lower than they should be in order to curb rising inflation.

On the one hand, lower prices will also drive down costs for Petrobras. The downside is they should weigh down on the state-owned company’s revenues. “These prices will cut losses for Petrobras, but they will also jeopardize its investments, because the company is working with a price estimate of US$ 100 until 2018, and then with US$ 95. If this scenario persists, then Petrobras and other oil companies will have to reformulate their investment strategies,” he asserts.

*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum

São Paulo – Oil barrel prices have bottomed out to their lowest in two years this week due to heightened supply and weak demand. The industry expects prices to remain around US$ 85 per barrel of the Brent Crude oil type (traded on the London Stock Exchange) for the next few months. If the trend bears out, major oil companies will have to revise their investment and debt plans. Even major global producing and exporting countries will need to cut down their spending.

According to the global news director at New York’s commodities consulting firm Platts, John Kingston, oil prices are bearish because the world economy is in “big trouble” and recovering slowly. Conversely, production and supply are on the way up.

“Demand is sluggish and growth is very slow around the world, which is still depending on the recovery of the United States’ economy,” Kingston told ANBA.

The director of the Brazilian Infrastructure Centre (CBIE), Adriano Pires also believes the world economy is recovering very slowly. He remarks that recent conflicts in Middle East countries like Palestine and Syria, coupled with the Ukrainian crisis, had postponed the price drop. Besides, the United States’ output is strong right now and investment projects rolled out over the past few years are beginning to bear fruit, causing exploration to increase.

Pires notes, however, that the commodity’s price has ups and downs. It peaked in 1973 and 1989, and plummeted in 1986 and throughout the 1990s. In 2008, however, oil sold for as much as US$ 140. By October 15th, 2012, the Brent barrel was selling for US$ 115.07. A year later, it cost US$ 110.86. This Thursday (16th), it closed at US$ 86.12.

Prices may keep falling, but not much further. Pires expects them to remain close to US$ 80. They may even increase slightly in the days leading up to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) meeting scheduled for late November. Countries like Venezuela and Libya want to reign in output so prices will rise, driving up revenues. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, for their part, would rather wait longer before slowing the output down.

The impact will likely not be as strongly felt by the United States. The country is producing oil domestically through unconventional gas extraction, thus reducing its dependence on imports and their influence on the country. Extraction of this type of gas and oil costs more, but Kingston claims some producers can “withstand” prices as low as US$ 70. “It all depends on the extraction technology and the productivity it affords,” he says.

The effects on Brazil

Low oil prices may influence the Brazilian federal government and Petrobras’ decisions in the short, medium and long run. According to Pires, plummeting oil prices relieve pressure on the government to raise fuel prices, which have been kept lower than they should be in order to curb rising inflation.

On the one hand, lower prices will also drive down costs for Petrobras. The downside is they should weigh down on the state-owned company’s revenues. “These prices will cut losses for Petrobras, but they will also jeopardize its investments, because the company is working with a price estimate of US$ 100 until 2018, and then with US$ 95. If this scenario persists, then Petrobras and other oil companies will have to reformulate their investment strategies,” he asserts.

*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum

São Paulo – Using the creativity of citizens, promoting their integration and circulation are some of the solutions to the problems of large, medium and small cities. In a lecture delivered last Tuesday evening (14th) at the Arab Brazilian Chamber of Commerce in São Paulo, the coordinator of the Cultural Economics course at Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), Ana Carla Fonseca Reis, outlined the key elements for cities to grow and solve their problems with popular involvement. Approximately 50 people watched the presentation, including the Arab Chamber president Marcelo Sallum and former director Mário Rizkallah.

Some examples of creative cities presented by the public administrator and economist include London, in the United Kingdom, Barcelona, in Spain, and Ankara, in Turkey. In Brazil, she mentioned Paraty, in Rio de Janeiro, and Guaramiranga, in Ceará. “These are cities that have set out to innovate their reality and popular culture from the inside out, i.e. from within the city to other localities,” she said.

According to Reis, Guaramiranga, in Ceará, is a city that used to live off of coffee farming. As traditional families left the small town and growing competition from state capital Fortaleza as a tour destination, the city became threatened by mounting problems. 

“However, they capitalized on their local culture of Northeastern musical rhythms; they have projects for developing young musicians; they host a jazz festival every year, during Carnival, of all times; and they have watched as their population soared from 5,000 to 15,000. Besides, they work in tandem with other nearby small towns,” she said.

“Cities can be creative regardless of their size, but those that wish to be or are creative often have clear-cut features: they innovate, for instance, by implementing a solid waste reuse system. They also value the connections between people. Whenever the people connect, they exchange ideas and experiences of their emotional ties with their cities or neighbourhoods; thereby, civil society participation increases. The third feature of these cities is that they value local culture and potential,” she asserted.

As case in points, she cited Peru, a country that has gone beyond its well-known tourist destinations such as Machu Picchu to tap into other aspects of its culture, such as cuisine. Ankara, in Turkey, has developed a project for local artisans to sell their items to tourists, and the government takes charge of shipping the product and insuring the purchase. Reis also mentioned object sharing in large cities, such as electric car rental in Lyon and Paris. “The culture of sharing, of having citizens use, but not own objects.”

In Brazil, Reis listed Paraty and Guaramiranga as the best examples of creative cities, but remarked that the concept is still met with challenges in the country. “They [the cities] don’t foster connections between their residents; they are still too divided into ‘ghettos.’ This remains a hurdle,” she claimed.

In terms of Arab cities, Reis cited Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, which has a plan of integrating leisure, culture and work activities by 2030. Abu Dhabi’s population should double by then, and therefore, said Reis, the city is investing in transformation by integrating activities and inhabitants. As an example, she discussed museums designed by award-winning architects that are currently under construction in a designated area within the city.

Reis’ presentation is part of the Arab Chamber Lecture Cycle, held on a regular basis and covering myriad topics. The next guest will be the historian Demétrio Magnoli, who will tackle progress and challenges for Brazil and the Mercosur. The meeting with Magnoli is set to take place on November 18th.

*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum

São Paulo – The Brazilian government visited irrigation projects in Morocco and Spain with the objective of bringing back to the country knowledge of different global experiences in the segment. The Brazilian secretary for Irrigation at the Brazilian Ministry of National Integration, Guilherme Costa, visited the Arab country in the first four days of this month and saw up close the project in the Taroudant region, East of Agadir. The mission was promoted by the World Bank.

“They are heroes, they plant in a difficult soil, in a difficult climate, they are hardworking, engaged, I was in awe with what they are doing with the resources they have,” the secretary told ANBA in an interview. Costa says that the irrigation project he has visited was sponsored by the Moroccan government. The producers who benefit from it also contribute financially, but the system is primarily supported by the public sector.

The crops in the region are predominantly of citrus fruit. However, some other products such as greens are also grown there. The secretary says that Morocco and Brazil share some similarities in the distribution of wealth, therefore the Moroccan experience can be used in Brazil. “Sometimes the government needs to contribute without getting anything in return,” he said.

Costa stayed from September 28th to 30th in the other country he visited, Spain, and there the projects are developed in a partnership between government and private enterprises. In one of the regions he visited, first the rural producers organized the project, then the government made the investments and later the project was passed on to private enterprises for improvement, maintenance etc. The producers pay a fee to use it. “We believe we need to have solutions to cater to several segments, this irrigation model needs to be in our portfolio,” said Costa about the Spanish system.

Currently there are six million hectares of irrigated land in Brazil, 95% of which are owned by private enterprises and 5% by the public sector. The government’s goal, according to the secretary, is to double this area in ten years’ time. Public-private partnerships are considered another option for this expansion, but Costa says different models are needed for each segment. Brazil’s irrigation projects span several regions, such as Northeast, Southeast, South and Midwest.

The mission Costa took part in also had officials from other countries: Uruguay, Argentina, Peru and Guatemala. A similar trip, this time to Peru, should take place next March. The World Bank wants to create a forum for international debate and knowledge exchange in the area.

*Translated by Rodrigo Mendonça

São Paulo – The Brazilian government visited irrigation projects in Morocco and Spain with the objective of bringing back to the country knowledge of different global experiences in the segment. The Brazilian secretary for Irrigation at the Brazilian Ministry of National Integration, Guilherme Costa, visited the Arab country in the first four days of this month and saw up close the project in the Taroudant region, East of Agadir. The mission was promoted by the World Bank.

“They are heroes, they farm a difficult soil, in a difficult climate, they are hardworking, engaged, I was in awe with what they are doing with the resources they have,” the secretary told ANBA in an interview. Costa says that the irrigation project he has visited was sponsored by the Moroccan government. The producers who benefit from it also contribute financially, but the system is primarily supported by the public sector.

The crops in the region are predominantly of citrus fruit. However, some other products such as greens are also grown there. The secretary says that Morocco and Brazil share some similarities in the distribution of wealth, therefore the Moroccan experience can be used in Brazil. “Sometimes the government needs to contribute without getting anything in return,” he said.

Costa stayed from September 28th to 30th in the other country he visited, Spain, and there the projects are developed in a partnership between government and private enterprises. In one of the regions he visited, first the rural producers organized the project, then the government made the investments and later the project was passed on to private enterprises for improvement, maintenance etc. The producers pay a fee to use it. “We believe we need to have solutions to cater to several segments, this irrigation model needs to be in our portfolio,” said Costa about the Spanish system.

Currently there are six million hectares of irrigated land in Brazil, 95% of which are owned by private enterprises and 5% by the public sector. The government’s goal, according to the secretary, is to double this area in ten years’ time. Public-private partnerships are considered another option for this expansion, but Costa says different models are needed for each segment. Brazil’s irrigation projects span several regions, such as Northeast, Southeast, South and Midwest.

The mission Costa took part in also had officials from other countries: Uruguay, Argentina, Peru and Guatemala. A similar trip, this time to Peru, should take place next March. The World Bank wants to create a forum for international debate and knowledge exchange in the area.

*Translated by Rodrigo Mendonça

São Paulo – The Brazilian government visited irrigation projects in Morocco and Spain with the objective of bringing back to the country knowledge of different global experiences in the segment. The Brazilian secretary for Irrigation at the Brazilian Ministry of National Integration, Guilherme Costa, visited the Arab country in the first four days of this month and saw up close the project in the Taroudant region, East of Agadir. The mission was promoted by the World Bank.

“They are heroes, they farm a difficult soil, under harsh climate, they are hard working, engaged, industrious. I was in awe with what they are doing with the resources they have,” the secretary told ANBA in an interview. Costa says that the irrigation project he has visited was sponsored by the Moroccan government. The producers who benefit from it also contribute financially, but the system is primarily supported by the public sector.

The crops in the region are predominantly of citrus fruit. However, some other products such as greens are also grown there. The secretary says that Morocco and Brazil share some similarities in the distribution of wealth, therefore the Moroccan experience can be used in Brazil. “Sometimes the government needs to contribute without getting anything in return,” he said.

Costa stayed from September 28th to 30th in the other country he visited, Spain, and there the projects are developed in a partnership between government and private enterprises. In one of the regions he visited, first the rural producers organized the project, then the government made the investments and later the project was passed on to private enterprises for improvement, maintenance etc. The producers pay a fee to use it. “We believe we need to have solutions to cater to several segments, this irrigation model needs to be in our portfolio,” said Costa about the Spanish system.

Currently there are six million hectares of irrigated land in Brazil, 95% of which are owned by private enterprises and 5% by the public sector. The government’s goal, according to the secretary, is to double this area in ten years’ time. Public-private partnerships are considered another option for this expansion, but Costa says different models are needed for each segment. Brazil’s irrigation projects span several regions, such as Northeast, Southeast, South and Midwest.

The mission Costa took part in also had officials from other countries: Uruguay, Argentina, Peru and Guatemala. A similar trip, this time to Peru, should take place next March. The World Bank wants to create a forum for international debate and knowledge exchange in the area.

*Translated by Rodrigo Mendonça

São Paulo – Travel agency and tour operator Lynden, headquartered in São Paulo, is focused at promoting the Arab world as a travel destination for Brazilians. Owned by Khaled Fayez Mahassen, a Lebanese who has been living in Brazil for 44 years, the company specializes in Middle East, but also offers packages to other parts of the world, and sends around 150 Brazilian tourists to the region per year. 

Within the Arab world, the leading tourist destination for Lyden’s clients is Lebanon. The Middle East packages also include, besides the airplane ticket and accommodation, cultural and historical tours, such as a ride through the south part of the country, where tourists can see a 13th-century castle in the city of Sidon, trips to the region of Baalbeck, with an archeological site and vineyards, and visits to places like the Gibran Khalil Gibran Museum or Beirut central district.

According to Mahassen, in the package to Lebanon, five days are reserved for planned tours, as the ones mentioned above, and two days are left for the travellers to enjoy the hotel, beaches and go shopping at leisure. The visitors can purchase not only Arab products in the country, says the businessman, but also European brands’ products at better prices than in Brazil.

Mahassen explains that the largest demand for packages to Lebanon does not come from Brazilian people of Arab descent. “It comes from people with no ties to the Arab world. Lebanon has a very rich history. Brazilians who are a little more educated know what Lebanon can offer and seek it,” he says. The package is usually offered with other destination in the region, such as Jordan, Turkey or even the United Arab Emirates.

Lynden had, until 2011, a flagship package which included Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. Due to the conflict in Syria, however, the package can no longer be offered. Previously to the political and social turmoil Middle East is currently in, the agency used to send between 400 and 500 Brazilian tourists to Arab countries. “There are those who still take a risk and say: I am going there today because tomorrow the risk might be higher”, he says about the travellers to Lebanon.

Mahassen says that clients look for trips to Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, for different reasons than those going to Lebanon, as the destination was promoted as being a luxurious place, with tall skyscrapers and modernity by the Emirates, an airline with direct flights from Brazil there. Travellers do not usually go only to Dubai, but the destination is a four- or five-day stopover in trips to India, China and Japan.

According to Mahassen, Lynden offers tour packages to all Arab countries which have a tourism industry, including Palestine, Jordan, Egypt, Qatar, Tunisia and Morocco, in addition to those mentioned above. They also offer packages to destinations such as Cuba, Colombia, Mexico, Armenia, Turkey, Greece and other countries in Europe and Central America. The company works as a tour operator, selling packages to travel agencies, but also as a travel agency, offering packages directly to clients. The head office, alongside a store, is located on Ipiranga Avenue, downtown São Paulo.

Lynden’s owner has been living in Brazil since he was 19 years old. He was born in the village of Drih, in the district of Shouf, and moved from the country as he was politically persecuted there. As soon as he came to Brazil, he started working with his uncles, who were textile manufacturers, and later he became a manufacturer himself, producing clothes and curtains. Later on he started working with wholesale, and even owned a restaurant. Mahassen studied Journalism and History, but dropped out of both courses. After opening Lynden, 20 years ago, he quit the other businesses. Mahassen is also a poet, with some poetry books published. He is a member of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCdoB, in the Portuguese acronym), and tried to run for state congressman in São Paulo earlier this year, but was not elected.

Contact
Lynden
Phone: (+5511) 3313 1150
Email: lynden@lynden.com.br
Website: www.lynden.com.br

*Translated by Rodrigo Mendonça