EL PASO, Texas (AP) — An 8-year-old boy from Guatemala died in government custody early Tuesday, U.S. immigration authorities said, marking the second death of an immigrant child in detention this month.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection said in a news release that the boy died shortly after midnight Tuesday.
The boy showed “signs of potential illness” Monday and was taken with his father to a hospital in Alamogordo, New Mexico, the agency said. There, he was diagnosed with a cold and a fever, was given prescriptions for amoxicillin and Ibuprofen and released Monday afternoon after being held 90 minutes for observation, the agency said.
The boy was returned to the hospital Monday evening with nausea and vomiting and died there just hours later, CBP said.
The agency said the cause of the boy’s death has not been determined and that it has notified the Department of Homeland Security’s inspector general and the Guatemalan government.
CBP promised “an independent and thorough review of the circumstances.”
Related: Protesters demand end to President Trump’s ‘zero tolerance’ immigration policy
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The border agency has not yet said when the father and son entered the United States or how long they were detained, saying only in its statement that the boy had been “previously apprehended.”
Alamogordo is about 90 miles (145 kilometers) from the U.S.-Mexico border at El Paso, Texas. Ruben Garcia, director of El Paso’s Annunciation House, said Tuesday that he had no reason to believe his shelter had served the family, but was waiting for further details about what happened.
A CBP spokesman declined to elaborate Tuesday, but said more details would be released shortly.
A 7-year-old Guatemalan girl died earlier this month after being apprehended by border agents. The body of the girl, Jakelin Caal, was returned to her family’s remote village Monday.
CBP announced new notification procedures in response to Jakelin’s death, which was not revealed until several days later.
Democratic members of Congress and immigration advocates sharply criticized CBP’s handling of the death and questioned whether border agents could have prevented it.
The Justice Department on Friday said the Treasury Department must hand over former President Trump’s tax returns to the House Ways and Means Committee, putting an apparent end to the yearslong battle over the records.
In the 39-page opinion, the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel (OLC) found that the committee “has invoked sufficient reasons for requesting the former President’s tax information,” and said that “the statute at issue here is unambiguous.”
The decision is a reversal of a 2019 opinion from the same office, which was then under the direction of the Trump administration.
The new opinion states that the previous decision, which concluded the House committee request was “disingenuous,” had failed to take into account that Congress is a co-equal branch to the executive. The office now finds that the previous administration, in denying the request for the tax records, “failed to afford the Committee the respect due to a coordinate branch of government.”
In April 2019, House Ways and Means Chairman Richard Neal, a Democrat, requested from the Treasury Department Mr. Trump’s individual tax records and those of eight Trump-related businesses for 2013 to 2018 to examine IRS enforcement of tax laws that applied to the president. Then-Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin asked the OLC how to respond.
At that time, the OLC advised Mnuchin that the committee had to “demonstrate a legitimate legislative purpose” for its request, and went on to say that since Treasury had concluded that the committee’s request was a “pretext” and had requested Mr. Trump’s tax records “for the purpose of public release,” the OLC agreed with Treasury that the request was not a legitimate one and banned Treasury from providing House Ways and Means with the tax records.
The opinion issued Friday disputed the Trump administration’s determination that the committee’s interest in the returns was simply a ruse to hide underlying political motivations. The OLC on Friday called the finding “irrelevant.”
“Congress is composed of elected members who stand for re-election. It is, therefore, neither unusual nor illegitimate for partisan or other political considerations to factor into Congress’s work,” the opinion says. “If the mere presence of a political motivation were enough to disqualify a congressional request, the effect would be to deny Congress its authority to seek information — a result that is incompatible with the Constitution.”
The new opinion states that the executive branch may conclude a records request from Congress lacks a legitimate legislative purpose “only in exceptional circumstances.”
The Ways and Means Committee will review the former president’s tax returns from the years 2015 through 2020, and investigate whether he complied with tax laws.
“As I have maintained for years, the Committee’s case is very strong and the law is on our side. I am glad that the Department of Justice agrees and that we can move forward,” Neal said in response to the new OLC opinion.
The review will look at several matters, including the lengths the IRS can enforce federal tax laws against the president, whether Mr. Trump’s taxes could unearth “hidden” business relationships that may post conflicts of interests and whether his foreign business dealings influenced his time in office.
“Access to former President Trump’s tax returns is a matter of national security,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a statement. “The American people deserve to know the facts of his troubling conflicts of interest and undermining of our security and democracy as president.”
The OLC memo contained no timetable for the turnover of the documents, but in the lawsuit that the committee filed regarding the dispute, D.C. District Court Judge Trevor McFadden issued an order in January requiring the Treasury Department to provide 72 hours’ notice to Mr. Trump’s counsel before releasing the tax records. The order was set to expire in February, but McFadden has been renewing the order every month. Acknowledging the OLC’s memo, McFadden reissued the order on Friday, writing, “In light of the Administration’s agreement, Defendants shall provide 72 hours’ notice to counsel…before any release of the tax record information at issue.”
In February, Manhattan District Attorney Cy Vance Jr. obtained former President Trump’s tax records after the Supreme Court declined to shield the secretive documents from investigators. Vance’s office has been investigating the former president’s business dealings in 2018, spanning from alleged hush-money payments made to women who claimed to have engaged in affairs with Mr. Trump.
GUADALAJARA, JALISCO (17/AGO/2015).- Revisa lo más importante del 17 de agosto en México en este resumen de noticias publicadas a través de los sitios web de los medios que conforman los Periódicos Asociados en Red.
CHIHUAHUA
Dan de alta a César Duarte tras accidente de helicóptero
Debido a su pronta recuperación, el gobernador César Horario Duarte Jáquez fue dado de alta este lunes en la tarde del hospital Christus Muguersa, dio a conocer el secretario de Salud del estado, Pedro Hernández Flores.
CIUDAD DE MÉXICO
Peña Nieto propone sanciones penales a quienes endeuden a estados
El Presidente Enrique Peña Nieto enviará al Congreso de la Unión una propuesta para establecer sanciones penales en contra de los servidores públicos que endeuden y ocasionen daño a la hacienda pública en las entidades y municipios del país.
El gobierno del Distrito Federal promulgó el nuevo Reglamento de Tránsito de la Ciudad de México que busca reducir en un 35% los incidentes viales y el número de muertes que se registran en dichos percances.
Como parte de las actividades de conservación en carreteras federales de Jalisco, a partir del presente mes la Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transportes (SCT) realiza obras de reencarpetado en las carreteras Guadalajara-Tepic, Guadalajara-Zacatecas y Zamora-Guadalajara, donde se invertirán este año aproximadamente 81 millones de pesos de recursos del Gobierno de la República.
Luego de una reunión con representantes de todas las instituciones públicas de educación media superior y superior en el estado, Mario López Valdez anunció que a partir de hoy hay un total de 25 mil 700 espacios en todas las escuelas de Sinaloa, para que ningún egresado de secundaria y preparatoria se quede sin estudiar en la entidad, y se cubra al 100% la demanda para el ciclo escolar 2015-2016.
House Democrats cannot accept the bipartisan border crisis compromise bill the Senate passed Wednesday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said, and will demand changes to limit how long children can be held in some facilities.
Mrs. Pelosi also said Democrats will insist on more money to pay the communities that illegal immigrant families are being dumped into, and will demand a new method of processing migrants when they arrive at the border “which is culturally, linguistically and religiously appropriate.”
“For the children, we must do the best we can,” Mrs. Pelosi said.
Her comments came in a statement late Wednesday, as she huddled with her lieutenants to try to figure out how to respond after the Senate, in a bipartisan vote, rejected her partisan bill and instead passed its own bill.
Republicans said Mrs. Pelosi should accept that bill, pointing to the Senate’s 84-8 vote that suggested a massive consensus on that version.
But President Trump seemed to signal a willingness to compromise, telling reporters earlier in the day he’s spoken with Mrs. Pelosi and saw the outlines of a deal.
The House and Senate bills are similar in the amount of money — one is $4.5 billion while the other totals $4.6 billion — but they differ over how to spend it.
The federal Health Department, charged with caring for Unaccompanied Alien Children, gets a majority of money in each bill. But border authorities, the Pentagon and deportation officers get money in the Senate bill that’s absent from the House version.
And while both bills contain some restrictions on how the money can be spent, the House version contains many more.
Mrs. Pelosi’s statement Wednesday suggests she’s willing to forgo most of those — but she said she’ll insist on one big change that would limit how long juvenile migrants can be kept in emergency unlicensed dormitories.
That’s also a key demand of the liberals, who object in particular to one Florida facility where more than 2,000 UACs are.
That facility, known as Homestead, has been the scene of pilgrimages by Democratic presidential candidates this week, demanding its closure.
Pope Francis will return to St Peter’s Basilica later on Christmas Day to deliver the traditional papal message to the world.
Among those taking part in the Mass were children chosen from countries including Venezuela, Iraq and Uganda.
The BBC’s Rome correspondent Mark Lowen says this is a clear gesture from the leader of 1.3 billion Catholics who often focuses on the plight of migrants and victims of war, as well as on extending the reach of the Church to its periphery.
What did the Pope say?
“Christmas reminds us that God continues to love us all, even the worst of us. To me, to you, to each of us, he says today: ‘I love you and I will always love you, for you are precious in my eyes,'” the 83-year-old pontiff said.
“God does not love you because you think and act the right way. He loves you, plain and simple. His love is unconditional; it does not depend on you.”
And the Pope also alluded to the clerical abuse and financial scandals afflicting the Church.
“Whatever goes wrong in our lives, whatever doesn’t work in the Church, whatever problems there are in the world, will no longer serve as an excuse.”
What’s the context?
From Australian country towns to schools in Ireland and cities across the US, the Catholic Church has faced a catalogue of child sexual abuse accusations in the past few decades.
High-profile cases and harrowing testimony given to public inquiries have continued to keep the issue in the headlines.
Media captionGeorge Pell is the most senior Catholic cleric to be convicted of such crimes
Last week, the Pope introduced sweeping changes to remove the rule of “pontifical secrecy” that has pervaded the issue of clerical child abuse.
The Church previously shrouded sexual abuse cases in secrecy, in what it said was an effort to protect the privacy of victims and reputations of the accused.
But new papal documents lifted restrictions on those who report abuse or say they have been victims.
The Pope also changed the Vatican’s definition of child pornography, increasing the age of the subject from 14 or under to 18 or under.
Pope Francis has faced serious pressure to provide leadership and generate workable solutions to the crisis, which has engulfed the Church in recent years.
A charter plane carrying 143 people and traveling from Cuba to north Florida sits in a river at the end of a runway, Saturday, May 4, 2019 in Jacksonville, Fla. The Boeing 737 arriving at Naval Air Station Jacksonville from Naval Station Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, with 136 passengers and seven aircrew slid off the runway Friday night into the St. Johns River, a NAS Jacksonville news release said. (AP Photo/APTN)
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – A chartered jet carrying 143 people from the U.S. military base in Cuba tried to land in a thunderstorm and ended up in the river at Naval Air Station Jacksonville. Authorities said everyone on board emerged without critical injuries, lining up on the wings and waiting to be rescued.
The Boeing 737 arriving in north Florida from Naval Station Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, with 136 passengers and seven crew members came to a stop in shallow water in the St. Johns River. Everyone on board was alive and accounted for, the Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office said, with 21 adults transported to local hospitals in good condition.
Marine units from the sheriff’s department and Jacksonville Fire Rescue joined first responders from the naval air station, helping passengers and crew to safety.
Capt. Michael Connor, the commanding officer of NAS Jacksonville, said during a news conference that those on board were a mix of civilian and military personnel, and that while some were staying in the area, others planned to fly on to other parts of the country.
“I think it is a miracle,” Connor said. “We could be talking about a different story this evening.”
The base’s fire chief, Mark Bruce, said passengers were lined up on the plane’s wings when first-responders started rescuing them.
Several pets were on the plane as well, and their status wasn’t immediately clear. A navy statement early Saturday offering “hearts and prayers” to their owners said safety issues prevented rescuers from immediately retrieving the animals.
It wasn’t immediately clear what went wrong. Boeing said in a tweet Friday night that it was investigating: “We are aware of an incident in Jacksonville, Fla., and are gathering information.” The Federal Aviation Administration was referring media inquiries to NAS Jacksonville. The National Transportation Safety Board dispatched a team of 16 investigators to determine what happened.
Connor said he didn’t know what impact the weather had on the flight. “I was at home when this happened and there were thunderstorms and lightning,” he said.
A photo posted by deputies shows a Miami Air International logo on the plane. The company didn’t immediately respond to messages from The Associated Press.
It wasn’t known how long it would take to remove the plane from the river, but Connor said the landing gear appeared to be resting on the river bed, making it unlikely for the aircraft to float away. He said crews began working to contain any jet fuel leaks almost immediately after securing the passengers’ safety.
Liz Torres told the Florida Times-Union that she heard what sounded like a gunshot Friday night from her home in Orange Park, about 5 miles (8 kilometers) south of NAS Jacksonville. She then drove down to a Target parking lot where police and firefighters were staging to find out more.
“I’ve never seen anything like this,” she said.
The Jacksonville Fire and Rescue Department posted on Twitter that approximately 90 personnel responded to the scene, adding that the department’s special operations team had trained with marine units for a similar incident earlier Friday. Navy security and emergency response personnel also were on the scene, the Navy release said.
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Schneider reported from Orlando. Other Associated Press contributors included David Fischer in Miami.
The Israeli military lifted protective restrictions on residents in southern Israel on Monday, while Gaza’s ruling Hamas militant group reported a cease-fire deal had been reached to end the deadliest fighting between the two sides since a 2014 war.
The escalation had killed 23 on the Gaza side, both militants and civilians, while on the Israeli side four civilians were killed from incoming fire.
The Islamic Jihad militant group, which Israel accused of instigating the latest violence, confirmed that a “mutual and concurrent” truce had been brokered by Egypt. Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem said Egyptian mediators, along with officials from Qatar and the U.N., helped reach the deal. He said Hamas could still use “different pressuring tools” to pressure Israel into easing a crippling blockade of Gaza it has enforced along with Egypt.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pointedly noted that “the campaign is not over, and it requires patience and judgment.”
The intense fighting over the past two days came to a halt in the early morning hours and residents on both sides went back to their daily routines. The Israeli military said that as of 7 a.m., “all protective restrictions in the home front will be lifted.”
Schools and roads had been closed, and residents had been encouraged to remain indoors and near bomb shelters as intense rocket fire pounded the area, threatening to devolve into all-out war.
Israel and Hamas are bitter enemies and have fought three wars and numerous smaller battles since the Islamic militant group seized Gaza in 2007.
In the latest fighting, which erupted over the weekend, Palestinian militants fired hundreds of rockets into Israel, while the Israeli military responded with airstrikes on some 350 militant targets inside Gaza, including weapons storage, attack tunnels and rocket launching and production facilities.
It also deployed tanks and infantry forces to the Gaza frontier, and put another brigade on standby. A Hamas commander involved in transferring Iranian funds to the group was killed in an airstrike, in an apparent return to Israel’s policy of “targeting killing” of militant leaders.
Palestinian medical officials reported 23 deaths, including at least nine militants as well as two pregnant women and two babies. The four Israeli civilians killed were the first Israeli fatalities from rocket attacks since the 50-day war in 2014. One was killed when his vehicle was hit by a Kornet anti-tank missile near the Gaza border.
Egyptian mediators had been working with the U.N. to broker a cease-fire. Under past Egyptian-brokered deals, Israel has agreed to ease its joint blockade of Gaza with Egypt in exchange for a halt to rocket fire.
The latest fighting broke out after Palestinian militants accused Israel of not honoring an earlier cease-fire deal from March, and opened fire on soldiers on the Israeli side of the Gaza border.
The terms of the latest deal were not known, but recent cease-fires have been short-lived.
In weary communities in southern Israel, there was criticism that the latest round of fighting had ended without tangible results — and no hope that it would not recur soon.
“When we have the upper hand, we need once and for all to finish the terror because this will repeat itself and will not stop,” said Jacque Mendel, a resident of the coastal city of Ashdod, where a man was killed in his car by a rocket Sunday night.
Despite its fierce response, Israel appears to have little appetite for another prolonged conflict. Later this week, the country marks Memorial Day, one of the most solemn days of the year, followed by the festive Independence Day. Next week, Israel is to host the popular Eurovision song contest and the backdrop of fighting would have likely overshadowed the occasions and deterred foreign tourists.
Netanyahu, who recently secured re-election in part thanks to the votes of the rocket-battered residents along the Gaza Strip frontier, has traditionally been cautious in his handling of Gaza, for fear of sparking an open-ended war with no clear endgame. But he is under pressure from the same electorate to end its anguish and his perspective coalition partners appear to favor a more hard-line agenda on Gaza.
Even within his own ruling Likud Party, Netanyahu faced unusual criticism for not going further to quash Gaza militants.
Likud lawmaker Gideon Saar wrote on Twitter that the reported cease-fire was not an achievement for Israel. “The timeframes between these violent attacks on Israel and its citizens are getting shorter and the terror groups in Gaza are getting stronger between them,” he wrote.
Benny Gantz, Israel’s emerging opposition leader, also criticized Netanyahu, saying that ending the current round amounted to “another surrender to the extortion of Hamas and the terror organizations.”
In Gaza, a year of Hamas-led protests along the Israeli frontier against the blockade that has ravaged the economy has yielded no tangible benefits. In March, Hamas faced several days of street protests over the dire conditions.
Still, Hamas’ leader Ismail Haniyeh said late Sunday that the militant group was “not interested in a new war,” and the start on Monday of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan likely lessened motivation for battle.
Signs of normal life slowly returned to Gaza, with banks opening after three days; schools are to reopen on Tuesday.
In the northern Gaza Strip, residents searched for a man and his wife missing among the rubble of an apartment building. The upper two floors of the five-story structure in the Sheikh Zayed residential complex was hit by an Israeli airstrike and four Palestinians — a 12-year-old boy, an infant and her parents — were killed.
Dan Bongino urged President Trump not to relent in his criticism of the way Democrats have run America’s inner cities, including Baltimore, where he formerly worked as a federal agent.
Dan Bongino urged President Trump not to relent in his criticism of the way Democrats have run America’s inner cities, including Baltimore, where he formerly worked as a federal agent.
The Fox News contributor and former New York City police officer said he was motivated to run for political office in Maryland in 2012 and 2014 because of the conditions he observed on the streets of Baltimore.
“I would say to the president and anyone else right now: don’t you dare run away from this argument. This argument is long overdue,” he said on “Fox & Friends” Monday.
Trump was heavily criticized over the weekend after he branded Rep. Elijah Cummings, D-Md., a “brutal bully” for his treatment of Border Patrol officials at committee hearings — and described Cummings’ district as “far worse and more dangerous” than the southern border.
“Cumming[s’] District is a disgusting, rat and rodent infested mess. If he spent more time in Baltimore, maybe he could help clean up this very dangerous & filthy place,” Trump tweeted, before calling for an investigation into why Baltimore received so much federal funding.
Cummings, the chairman of the House Oversight Committee, responded Sunday by declaring he has “no doubt” that Trump is racist.
Bongino, who also served as a U.S. Secret Service agent, pushed back on Cummings’ sentiments, saying the people of Baltimore are “good people who have been let down” by liberal policies.
“Liberals have destroyed and decimated these cities. … There is nothing wrong with the people of Baltimore. These are people looking for safety and prosperity. Thank God the president brought the heat to these Democrat politicians who have destroyed these cities. When is the accountability gonna start?” he asked.
Rep. Steve King, shown here during a news conference in August 2019, faced criticism for his comments on abortion, including when he questioned whether there would be “any population of the world left” if not for births due to rape and incest.
Charlie Neibergall/AP
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Charlie Neibergall/AP
Rep. Steve King, shown here during a news conference in August 2019, faced criticism for his comments on abortion, including when he questioned whether there would be “any population of the world left” if not for births due to rape and incest.
Charlie Neibergall/AP
After years of incendiary comments on race and other issues that lost him the support of many Republican Party leaders, conservative Iowa Rep. Steve King has lost his bid for reelection to a primary challenge by GOP state Sen. Randy Feenstra, The Associated Press projects.
“I am truly humbled by the outpouring of support over the past 17 months that made tonight possible and I thank Congressman King for his decades of public service,” Feenstra said in a statement. “As we turn to the general election, I will remain focused on my plans to deliver results for the families, farmers and communities of Iowa. But first, we must make sure this seat doesn’t land in the hands of Nancy Pelosi and her liberal allies in Congress. Tomorrow, we get back to work.”
First elected in 2002, King faced the toughest primary campaign of his career in Iowa’s 4th Congressional District, trailing in the polls with a limited cash supply and minimal advertising. He faced an onslaught of challengers feeding off of his vulnerability due to inflammatory rhetoric.
His primary opponents focused on an argument that King is unable to effectively represent the interests of his constituents since being stripped of House committee assignments last year, rather than focusing on his history of controversial statements.
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“The 4th District needs a seat at the table, an effective conservative voice,” stressed Feenstra in a May debate hosted by WHO-TV.
Also challenging King were former Irwin Mayor Bret Richards, former state representative and Woodbury County supervisor Jeremy Taylor and real estate developer Steve Reeder. All had similar platforms: opposing abortion rights, securing the southern U.S. border and supporting gun owners’ views of the Second Amendment.
The writing may have been on the wall for King, who President Trump once dubbed “the world’s most conservative human being.” In his last general election, he scraped by with a margin of just 3% of the vote in his bright red district against Democrat J.D. Scholten, a paralegal and former minor league baseball pitcher.
Scholten’s progress at nearly flipping the northwest district, which is home to Sioux City and Ames, prompted this crowded Republican primary with challengers painting King, 71, as ineffective and offering themselves up as a viable conservative alternative without the reputation of being a toxic thorn in the GOP’s side.
Scholten is returning for a second swing at the seat this year and ended up without any competition in the Democratic primary.
Not only did Feenstra raise more than King in the first quarter, he also garnered the high-profile endorsements of former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, the National Right to Life Committee and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The latter released an ad criticizing King for inaction.
“When we’ve needed him most, Steve King has let us down. He got kicked off the agriculture committee, hurting our farmers, and hasn’t written a single farming bill that passed Congress,” the ad proclaimed.
Many top Iowa Republicans have abandoned King this cycle, seeing it as an unnecessary risk to maintaining control of the district, with King’s controversial record considered a distraction to the conservative cause and a possible threat to the reelection Sen. Joni Ernst.
Last year, King wondered out loud to The New York Timeswhy “white nationalist” and “white supremacist” are considered offensive terms. King was widely rebuked by party leadership and stripped from key committee assignments, including his place on the House Agriculture Committee, a panel of particular importance to his home state. King did support a House resolution condemning his comments that was passed nearly unanimously in 2019.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who rarely wades into actions by House Republicans, released a statement at the time calling King’s statements “unworthy of his elected position.”
“If he doesn’t understand why ‘white supremacy’ is offensive, he should find another line of work,” McConnell wrote.
King issued a public statement shortly after the interview was published, defending himself by saying he wasn’t an advocate for white nationalism but rather supports “western civilization’s values.”
It hardly marked the first time his explosive comments made the news.
In 2008, he said terrorists would “be dancing in the streets in greater numbers than they did on September 11” if Barack Obama were elected president.
He’s also made incendiary comments on multiculturalism, immigration and abortion, falsely expressing skepticism that a woman could get pregnant as a result of rape or incest.
The Iowa caucuses are here at last, and the latest polls show a very, very tight race in the Democratic primary, with Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden at the front of the pack.
Aside from that bungled poll, seven major Iowa polls have been released in the past two weeks, with the latest from Monmouth University, Civiqs, and Emerson College.
The Monmouth results, released last Wednesday, found Biden on top — as he has been nationally all along — with 23 percent of likely caucus-goers saying they’d support him. Still, his lead was far from comfortable. Sanders came in a close second, with 21 percent support; Buttigieg nearly tied with Sen. Elizabeth Warren for third, with 16 and 15 percent respectively; and Sen. Amy Klobuchar came in fifth with 10 percent.
The only other candidates Monmouth found to have more than 1 percent support were entrepreneurs Tom Steyer and Andrew Yang, with 4 and 3 percent support, respectively. The poll has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points, making the deltas between candidates perhaps even more narrow than they appear.
Civiqs — which conducted an online poll, opposed to the telephone polling Monmouth did — completed its polling during the same time period as Monmouth (January 23 to 27), but found a slightly different result.
Sanders topped Civiqs’ poll, with 24 percent support from likely caucus-goers. Warren came in second, at 19 percent; Buttigieg third, with 17 percent; Biden fourth, with 15 percent; and Klobuchar still fifth, with the backing of 11 percent of likely caucus-goers.
Yang and Steyer again topped the second tier of candidates, with pollsters recording 5 percent support for Yang and 4 percent for Steyer. The margin of error for Civiqs’ work is 4.8 percentage points, again meaning the differences in standing — at least among the top four candidates — might be closer than the results initially suggest.
And Emerson’s telephone poll — the most recent of these three, taken from January 30 to February 2 — found Sanders to be the favorite, with 28 percent support; Biden trailed him with 21 percent. Buttigieg and Warren were again nearly tied, with 15 and 14 percent support, respectively, and Klobuchar was fifth, with 11 percent.
Yang’s and Steyer’s results matched Civiqs’ survey: They received 5 and 4 percent support, respectively. The poll’s margin of error is 3.3 percentage points.
Those new results are of a kind with four polls that came in during the penultimate week of January. Back then, Sanders began to emerge as a state frontrunner: An Emerson College poll put his support at 30 percent; a New York Times/Siena College poll placed him at 25 percent, and a CBS News/YouGov poll put him at 26 percent. Biden led in the fourth poll, from Suffolk University/USA Today, with 25.4 percent.
Biden was second in two of the polls led by Sanders (21 percent in Emerson’s poll, and 25 percent in the CBS survey); Buttigieg was second in the Times poll, with 18 percent support. The CBS and Suffolk polls put the former mayor in third place; the Emerson poll in fourth. Warren was fourth in every poll, except for the Emerson survey, in which she was essentially tied with Buttigieg.
If we take a look at all these in aggregate, as RealClearPolitics does in its Iowa polling average, Sanders appears poised to take Iowa, with a lead of 4 percentage points, though depending on how those votes are distributed, it’s hard to say how that will translate into the final results.
Sanders certainly has an advantage. However, it is important to remember that Iowa’s caucuses aren’t run like a regular primary. Just because a candidate gets the most votes doesn’t mean the candidate will get the most delegates, as Vox’s Andrew Prokop explained. Also, because of the way the caucuses are run, quirks in the pollsters’ models and Iowans’ very relatable uncertainty in the eleventh hour, anything could happen.
There are a lot of factors that will affect Monday’s results
Much of how Monday night ends depends on the size of caucus turnout, the demographic groups that come and caucus, which candidates are caucus-goers’ second choices and who the large number of currently undecided likely caucus-goers ultimately decide to caucus for.
Obviously, the more supporters any given candidate can get to show up for them at caucus sites across the state, the better their chances. But as of now, no one knows exactly how big (or small) the turnout will be.
State and national polls of Democrats, likely voters, and likely caucus-goers have shown an incredible degree of excitement around the 2020 primary for months — a January Quinnipiac University national poll, for instance, found 85 percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters saying they are either “extremely” or “very” motivated to vote in the primary’s contests.
Based on this enthusiasm, pollsters have — in general — assumed a large turnout. Monmouth’s numbers, for instance, assume a night of crowds reminiscent of the 2008 primary, when around 236,000 Iowans caucused.
That may seem fairly safe, but if pollsters’ assumptions are off by just a little, the results could be strikingly different than the numbers cited above. As Vox’s Ella Nilsen and our former colleague Tara Golshan have explained, the winner of the caucuses is actually decided by a very small number of people:
With a field of 11 candidates, the winner could walk away having only received the support of 40,000 to 50,000 caucus-goers statewide — fewer people than live in Dubuque, Iowa. And political experts here said with five strong candidates going into caucus night, it’s still anyone’s guess who could win.
“Maybe the top candidate ends up with 20 percent, because you’ve got six strong candidates going into caucus night,” Norm Sterzenbach, a former Iowa Democratic Party official said this fall. “Twenty percent could win it, that’s only 40,000-50,000 votes.”
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“It’s a relatively small number, right? It’s the size of a sort of medium-sized town,” said David Redlawsk, a political science professor at the University of Delaware and an expert on the Iowa caucuses. “In Congressional elections, winners normally have more than 100,000 votes.”
And it’s not just how many caucus-goers turn out that will affect the results — the average age of caucus-goers is also expected to have a marked effect on who is the eventual victor.
The latest polls show that should the turnout skew younger, Sanders has a marked advantage (one that Monmouth’s pollsters found unique to him — that is, caucuses with more younger voters didn’t help Warren or, say, Buttigieg as much as they did the senator from Vermont).
Turnout that skews older, however, would help Biden, whom Monmouth found to have 37 percent support of those over 65 and just 7 percent support among likely caucus-goers 18 to 49, a group Sanders carried, with 39 percent support.
Former Vice President Joe Biden posing with supporters in Des Moines on February 2, 2020.Joshua Lott/Getty Images
Sanders acknowledged this paradigm Saturday in Iowa, telling supporters, “We will know early on in the night if we are going to win. If voter turnout is high, we are going to win … if it is low, quite frankly, we will not.”
Monmouth’s Patrick Murray said this dynamic could make the margin of victory even narrower than Sterzenbach projected.
“A turnout swing of as few of 10,000 voters could determine who ‘wins’ the caucus if it is driven by a specific demographic group,” Murray said in a statement Wednesday.
Based on this, one could say that if Sanders manages to bring out 10,000 more young caucus-goers than expected, Iowa would be — as he predicts — his this time.
But that ignores the fact that some caucus-goers will be required to change their allegiances, a fact that seems as if it could benefit Biden as much as Sanders.
The viability standard could change everything
The caucuses are conducted in a manner that is similar to ranked-choice voting.
Iowans gather at their local precinct and publicly declare their allegiance to their candidate by gathering in groups. This year, officials will tally those supporters using documents called presidential preference cards. Candidates who are found to have more than 15 percent support of a precinct following a count of those cards will be deemed “viable,” and their support will be locked in — that is, Iowans who caucused for them can’t change their minds.
But those who caucused for candidates who fail to meet that 15 percent threshold will be allowed to change their allegiance to one of the viable candidates. This is known as realignment.
This makes caucus-goers’ second choices important. In all three of the latest polls, Warren was the top second choice, with 19 percent of Monmouth respondents putting her second, 16 percent in the Civiqs poll, and 23.8 percent in Emerson’s.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren speaks at Iowa State University on February 2, 2020.Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Biden was the second most popular in two, with 16 percent of Monmouth’s poll choosing him as their No. 2, and 15 percent in Civiqs’ survey. Emerson’s pollsters found Klobuchar the top second choice among the top five candidates in that poll, with 18.7 percent second-choice support.
But it’s important to look at where that second-choice support is coming from — many polls have found that Sanders supporters overwhelmingly said Warren is their second choice. For instance, in Civiqs’ latest poll, 31 percent of Sanders backers said Warren is their second choice, more than any other group. And Emerson’s poll saw 50 percent of Sanders supporters saying Warren was their second choice.
But given recent polls, it seems likely that if Sanders fails to clear the 15 percent mark, he’ll do so in precious few precincts, meaning the majority of his caucus-goers will not be required to throw their support elsewhere. This is a reality that also affects Yang and Steyer, who find most of their second-choice support coming from Sanders backers as well.
Instead, the backers of candidates like Yang, Steyer, or even Klobuchar could make all the difference.
Emerson found Yang’s supporters split in their second-choice support; assuming Sanders, Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar were still viable, 30.7 percent said they’d caucus for Klobuchar; 22.4 percent said they’d go for Warren; 17.6 said they’d move to Sanders; and 14.1 percent said they’d go home.
Entrepreneur Andrew Yang speaking at Des Moines, Iowa’s Drake University in January 2020.Scott Olson/Getty Images
Steyer fans were split almost evenly between Sanders, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar; and Klobuchar backers overwhelming liked Biden as their second choice, with 41.2 percent saying they’d back him, while 25.9 and 23.3 percent said they’d go to Warren and Buttigieg, respectively.
Civiqs grouped all the candidates outside of Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, and Biden together when reporting supporters’ second choices. Respondents who are for a candidate not in this top tier split almost evenly for Warren (19 percent), Biden (19 percent), and Buttigieg (20 percent). Sanders received just 9 percent second-choice support among these caucus-goers.
Klobuchar stands to gain the most if Sanders and Biden don’t make the 15 percent threshold, again, something that isn’t likely to happen. She also has the greatest support among Buttigieg backers after Biden in the Civiqs poll, at 18 percent, and the most in the Emerson poll, with 30.1 percent — numbers that could serve her well in any precincts in which Buttigieg fails to meet the viability standard.
All this would suggest that any realignment boosts would likely benefit Sanders less than his chief rivals — unless there are a lot of districts where Warren misses the 15 percent cutoff, as 33 percent of Warren supporters say Sanders is their second choice.
The good news for candidates counting on realignment boosts is that most Iowans seem to have settled on a second choice. Monmouth asked whom its respondents would caucus for if only the top six candidates in its poll — Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren, Klobuchar, and Yang — remained viable, and only 6 percent said they didn’t know. In Emerson’s poll, only 9 percent said they wouldn’t choose one of those five.
The bad news is timing and individual caucus-goers’ commitment to the process is a huge part of how much the realignment process will benefit viable candidates, because caucus-goers can leave.
Say you caucused for Klobuchar, and she was declared nonviable in your precinct, but the night’s growing long and you need to get back to your baby. You can go without realigning your support. Essentially, it’s important to remember that realignment will change things, but it won’t affect final totals in every case, as Vox’s Andrew Prokop has explained. And even in precincts where it may appear as if it will matter a lot, it might not impact things at all.
There’s still a lot of uncertainty around first choices, too
Throughout months of polling, one thing has been constant: Iowans aren’t sure if they’ll actually caucus for their first choices.
In Selzer’s November 2019 poll, 62 percent of respondents said they could be persuaded to support someone other than their first choice. Her early January poll found that number had fallen some, but was still significant: 45 percent of likely caucus-goers.
Monmouth’s most recent work found similar results — 45 percent of likely caucus-goers said they were “open” to caucusing for a candidate other than their current first choice, with 13 percent saying there was a “high possibility” they’ll change their minds before Monday night. And 5 percent said they still have no first choice.
Emerson’s pollsters found 66 percent of likely caucus-goers said they are sure to caucus for their first choice, while — and again, this poll was taken in the three days before the caucuses — 34 percent said they may still change their minds.
Recent polls have found Warren and Sanders support to be more set in stone, and Monmouth’s work appear to bear this out: 62 percent of those who identify as “very liberal” said they know for sure who they will caucus for, while only 41 percent of those identifying as “moderate” or “conservative” said the same. And 34 percent of very liberal likely caucus-goers said they could change their minds, while 50 percent of moderates and conservatives were open to switching.
This would seem to provide an opportunity for a candidate like Klobuchar to win over some last-minute supporters, and it’s an opportunity she told reporters Saturday she plans to capitalize on. “We are punching way above our weight … we clearly have a surge going here.”
Sen. Amy Klobuchar greetings a crowd in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, on February 2, 2020.Getty Images
Also presenting an opportunity is that half of all respondents who said they are “somewhat liberal” said they would be open to changing their allegiance. That presents a situation that could benefit almost anyone given this is the most progressive slate of candidates in decades — even Biden, as Vox’s Laura McGann has pointed out, would be the most progressive president in generations.
All this makes candidates’ last-minute pitches extremely important — they need to make sure they solidify the support they have, while also trying to convince people to defect and win over those still undecided. The campaigns are all aware of this and spent Saturday and Sunday covering the state, holding dozens of events, fending off pranksters, deploying high-profile surrogates, and, in Sanders’s case, holding concerts.
And Emerson’s polling suggests these final pushes are bearing fruit. For instance, 22.6 percent of Yang’s backers told the college’s pollsters they’d settled on him in the past three days — and even candidates who haven’t polled well are earning last-minute supporters: 4.9 percent of those who plan to back Sen. Michael Bennet said he’d won them over in the past three days.
But who is going to win?
As Prokop has explained, more than one candidate could “win” the caucuses given state officials will be releasing three sets of results.
One candidate could win the pre-realignment total, essentially the popular vote; another, the realigned numbers; and a third could come away with the most state delegates (a number that will help determine how many of Iowa’s 41 national delegates each candidate will receive).
Given this, and all the uncertainty and byzantine processes we went through above, it is hard to say who will come out on top in any of these three results.
But we can say whom things are looking good for.
Obviously, Sanders and Biden have a fairly healthy lead in polling averages. We know that the progressive candidates have more stalwart supporters, meaning Biden’s standing many not be as strong as it appears in topline poll numbers.
Sen. Bernie Sanders interacts with supporters in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, on February 2, 2020.Joe Raedle/Getty Images
We also know Warren is the popular second choice, but that a lot of her universe of support with that metric comes from Sanders supporters, who probably won’t have to realign themselves. And we know that Biden and Buttigieg also do well as second choices.
Turnout should be fairly high, something that could benefit Sanders greatly, especially if a large number of younger Iowans come out to caucus.
It’s safe to say Sanders appears to be in good stead, particularly in pre-realignment totals, but that any lead he might be able to rack up there will be threatened by the second round, in which we can expect Warren, Biden, Buttigieg — and maybe Klobuchar — to pick up more new supporters than Sanders will. Whether those gains will be enough for him to be knocked off his top spot remains to be seen.
The final state delegate count is what is usually used to determine who wins. But Iowa doesn’t have a winner-take-all system; delegates are distributed proportionately, meaning in a race that has been this close, several candidates could end up with similar numbers.
That won’t necessarily stop whoever gets the most from declaring themselves the winner — like when Hillary Clinton “won” the state by 0.25 percentage points in 2016 — but it would make it difficult for any one candidate to pick up strong momentum boost ahead of the New Hampshire primary.
And that boost is really what the caucuses are about. Iowa’s 41 national delegates represent such a small fraction of the total that former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg isn’t even bothering to compete in the state.
It won’t be until Super Tuesday that candidates get to compete in states with large delegate totals, with 1,344 delegates up for grabs (the first four contests in February only have 155). It’s difficult to make it to Super Tuesday without proving yourself first, however, and Iowa is a chance — for some candidates, like Klobuchar, perhaps a last chance — to do just that.
Kim Jong Nam, the half brother of North Korea’s leader who was murdered in a Malaysia airport two years ago, was a Central Intelligence Agency source who met on several occasions with agency operatives, the Wall Street Journal reports.
The Journal, citing a “person knowledgeable about the matter,” said Kim Jong Nam met with CIA agents on multiple occasions and also likely had a relationship with Chinese intelligence officials.
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service and Unification Ministry said Tuesday it could not confirm the report. The CIA declined to comment on the matter when contacted by USA TODAY.
The Journal said Kim Jong Nam had traveled to Malaysia in February 2017 to meet his CIA contact. He was walking through the airport in Kuala Lumpur when he was attacked by two women who smeared VX nerve gas on his face.
The women were accused of colluding with a group of North Korean men who slipped out of Malaysia during the investigation. Charges ultimately were dropped against the women, who told authorities they were paid for what they believed was a stunt for a TV show.
U.S. and South Korean authorities have blamed North Korea for the murder, but Malaysia never made a formal finding on the matter.
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A woman dressed in a traditional gown pays her respects at statues of late North Korean leaders, Kim Il Sung, left, and Kim Jong Il, in Pyongyang, North Korea, Thursday, Feb. 16, 2017. Unaware of reports his eldest son – and current leader Kim Jong Uns half-brother – was killed just days ago in what appears to have been a carefully planned assassination, North Koreans marked the birthday of late leader Kim Jong Il on Thursday as they do every year. Eric Talmadge, AP
Azalea, whose Korean name is “Dalle”, a 19-year-old female chimpanzee, smokes a cigarette at the Central Zoo in Pyongyang, North Korea Oct. 19, 2016. According to officials at the newly renovated zoo, which has become a favorite leisure spot in the North Korean capital since it was re-opened in July, the chimpanzee smokes about a pack a day. They insist, however, that she does not inhale. Wong Maye-E, AP
A picture released by the Rodong Sinmun, the newspaper of the ruling North Korean Workers Party, on Sept. 8, 2015, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center front, and Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez, second from right, a member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Cuba and first vice-president of the Council of State, watching an art performance by the Moranbong Band and the State Merited Chorus in Pyongyang, North Korea, on Sept. 7, 2015. Bermudez led a Cuban delegation to North Korea to mark the 55th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between North Korea and Cuba. Rodong Sinmun, European Pressphoto Agency
Men and women pump their fists in the air and chant “defend!” as they carry propaganda slogans calling for reunification of their country during the “Pyongyang Mass Rally on the Day of the Struggle Against the U.S.,” attended by approximately 100,000 North Koreans to mark the 65th anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War at the Kim Il Sung stadium, Thursday, June 25, 2015, in Pyongyang, North Korea. The month of June in North Korea is known as the “Struggle Against U.S. Imperialism Month” and it’s a time for North Koreans to swarm to war museums, mobilize for gatherings denouncing the evils of the United States and join in a general, nationwide whipping up of the anti-American sentiment. Wong Maye-E, AP
Kim Jong Nam was the oldest son of Kim Jong Il, the despot leader of North Korea for 17 years until his death in 2011. Kim Jong Nam at one time was considered his father’s likely successor before falling out of favor. In recent years he had developed a reputation for living a playboy lifestyle.
Reports of assassinations and purges are not uncommon in North Korea. Five officials were reportedly executed last month for their rolls in a failed summit between North Korea Leader Kim Jong Un and President Trump. Days later, however, senior official Kim Hyok Chol was shown in state media sitting near Kim at a concert.
As mourners at a New Jersey funeral on Wednesday paid their respects to the college student who was killed after she mistook a car for her Uber ride, lawmakers in South Carolina, where she died, are pushing to require ride-share vehicles to be clearly marked with illuminated signs.
Samantha Josephson, a 21-year-old University of South Carolina student from New Jersey, was killed last week. Investigators think she got into the wrong car early Friday while waiting for an Uber outside a bar in Columbia. A suspect has been arrested, and police say she apparently mistook his car for the Uber she ordered.
Nathaniel D. Rowland, 24, has been charged with murder and kidnapping. The student’s body was found in a wooded area in Clarendon County on Friday afternoon. Rowland was arrested after he was pulled over in Columbia early Saturday, police have said.
Seth Josephson told mourners Wednesday that the family’s “sadness will never end,” NBC New York reported.
“It may wane in the future, but it will always leave a hole in the heart,” he said, while reading a statement on behalf of Josephson’s family. Seth Josephson is a cousin of Samantha Josephson’s father.
Josephson’s father, Seymour Josephson, has said he would dedicate his life to improving the safety of ride-share services.
“Samantha was by herself. She had absolutely no chance. None. The door was locked, the child safety locks were on. She had absolutely no chance,” he said at a vigil in Columbia on Sunday.
In response to Josephson’s death, South Carolina lawmakers have introduced a bill that would require all ride-share drivers to display an illuminated sign to clearly mark their vehicles.
“We can’t stop a psychopath from doing something hideous, but as lawmakers, policymakers, we need to take precautions to make the likelihood that something like this happen less,” said state Rep. Seth Rose, a Democrat, according to NBC affiliate WIS of Columbia.
The bill, the “Samantha L. Josephson Ridesharing Safety Act,” was introduced Tuesday.
It would require that “transportation network company” vehicles display an illuminated sign that can be seen in darkness. The current law requires a sign or emblem that is reflective.
Uber and Lyft did not immediately respond to a request for comment Wednesday about the proposed changes to the law or about regulations they have regarding lighted signs.
It appears from Lyft’s website that its lighted sign, called “amp” is available to higher-tier drivers in some areas. Uber also has a lighted sign called “beacon” that is described as an option, according to that company’s website.
The University of South Carolina on Monday announced a “What’s My Name” campaign to help students stay safe when requesting ride-share vehicles.
Uber announced it would partner with the university to raise awareness about safety.
“Since 2017, we’ve been working with local law enforcement to educate the public about how to avoid fake rideshare drivers,” Uber said in the statement. “Everyone at Uber is devastated to hear about this unspeakable crime, and our hearts are with Samantha Josephson’s family and loved ones.”
Uber encourages users to check the car, license plate and driver against information delivered through the app before getting in. If the information does not match, do not get in the vehicle, the company says.
“Centralizing control of all data under the umbrella of an inherently political apparatus is dangerous and breeds distrust,” said Dr. Nicole Lurie, who served as assistant secretary for preparedness and response under former President Barack Obama. “It appears to cut off the ability of agencies like C.D.C. to do its basic job.”
The shift grew out of a tense conference call several weeks ago between hospital executives and Dr. Deborah L. Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator. After Dr. Birx said hospitals were not adequately reporting their data, she convened a working group of government and hospital officials who devised the new plan, according to Dr. Janis Orlowski, the chief health care officer of the Association of American Medical Colleges, who participated in the group’s meetings.
While she said she understood Dr. Lurie’s concern, Dr. Orlowski said the administration had pledged in “a verbal discussion” to make the data public — or at least give hospitals access to it.
“We are comfortable with that as long as they continue to work with us, as long as they continue to make the information public, and as long as we’re able to continue to advise them and look at the data,” she said, calling the switch “a sincere effort to streamline and improve data collection.’’
The change exposes the vast gaps in the government’s ability to collect and manage health data — an antiquated system at best, experts say. The C.D.C. has been collecting coronavirus data through its National Healthcare Safety Network, which was expanded at the outset of the pandemic to track hospital capacity and patient information specific to Covid-19.
In its new guidance, Health and Human Services said that going forward, hospitals should report detailed information on a daily basis directly to the new centralized system, which is managed by TeleTracking, a health data firm with headquarters in Pittsburgh. However, if hospitals were already reporting such information to their states, they could continue to do so if they received a written release saying the state would handle reporting.
Senator Patty Murray of Washington, the top Democrat on the Senate health committee, has raised questions about the TeleTracking contract, calling it a “noncompetitive, multimillion-dollar contract” for a “duplicative health data system.”
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Philadelphia Deputy Health Commissioner Dr. Caroline Johnson has resigned after a report found she was unfairly giving a vaccine bidding advantage to Philly Fighting COVID, the city’s largest vaccine distribution site.
The Philadelphia Inquirer obtained records revealing special treatment that Andrei Doroshin, CEO of Philly Fighting COVID, received by Johnson, undisclosed to other Health Department officials.
In an email obtained by the publication, Johnson reached out to Doroshin in December, regarding a city program that enabled agencies and organizations to apply, and potentially be able to administer the vaccine.
Though the proposal had already been publically posted, health officials were not permitted to selectively encourage individuals to apply to the program.
“[T]hese actions were inappropriate because the information shared was not available to all potential applicants,” Health Department spokesperson James Garrow said in a statement to the publication Saturday. “While these actions may have been intended to help advance the City’s vaccine distribution effort, the Health Commissioner has accepted her resignation in the best interest of the city.”
Philly Fighting COVID did submit an application, along with eight other organizations in the city, though none of the applications have been reviewed at the this time, noted The Philadelphia Inquirer.
Doroshin first hit headlines when the 22-year old pitched a $2.7 million proposal to the Philadelphia City Council as a way to expand vaccinations city wide, reported NPR Friday.
The 22-year old CEO had a deal with Philadelphia Department of Public Health and the mayor’s office by Jan. 9 – though the city never signed a contract with Doroshin, they did hand over a portion of Philadelphia’s allotted vaccine doses.
Philly Fighting COVID became the city’s first mass vaccination clinic earlier this year.
But controversy quickly erupted around the young CEO, after a nurse claimed on twitter she saw him take home a “Ziplock bag-full of vaccines.”
Doroshin then admitted to the TODAY Show that he in fact took four vaccines home and administered them to his friends.
He justified his actions by saying he didn’t want the vaccines to go to waste.
“I stand by that decision,” he said. “I understand I made that mistake. That is my mistake to carry for the rest of my life. But it is not the mistake of the organization.”
The city did not provide any funding for the Philly Fighting COVID start up, nor have they yet allocated any funds for the program that would allow other organizations in Philadelphia the ability to administer vaccines.
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