POLITICO Playbook: Manchin and Sinema still might get their way – POLITICO – Politico

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DRIVING THE DAY

President JOE BIDEN is at NATO headquarters in Brussels today explaining his decision to pull out of Afghanistan to allies who felt blindsided. The House is back in session and will soon be debating why there’s still an Iraq war resolution on the books. More on that below — and a messy side drama over Rep. ILHAN OMAR (D-Minn.) — but first some glimmers of hope for an infrastructure deal …

CAN SINEMA DELIVER SANDERS? We’re still skeptical. But senior Democrats were telling us Sunday night they think the White House is actually considering the trillion-dollar bipartisan infrastructure deal floated by 10 centrist senators Friday.

First, however, they need to see if their own members can swallow it.

Democrats are going to have some candid family conversations this week. If they’re going to get behind an infrastructure proposal that’s half the size of what they were shooting for, they need assurances from two colleagues in particular — Sens. KYRSTEN SINEMA (Ariz.) and JOE MANCHIN (W.Va.) — that they will be there to back a lot more later through reconciliation.

Some Democratic leaders are concerned that if they endorse a bipartisan deal like the pair of centrists want, the duo will play hard to get when it comes time to go Democrats-only. A reconciliation package would likely include sweeping climate provisions, a massive investment in family and child care and higher corporate taxes. “There would have to be clarity that we’re getting the second package. Manchin and Sinema are going to have to give assurances to BERNIE [SANDERS],” said one senior Democratic source.

Speaker NANCY PELOSI hinted at this on CNN’s “State of the Union,” saying that if a bipartisan Senate deal “can be agreed upon, I don’t know how we can possibly sell it to our caucus unless we know there is more to come.”

Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER has been preparing for this possible two-pronged approach for a while. “We all know as a caucus, we will not be able to do all the things that the country needs in a totally bipartisan way,” he said last week. “But we’re not going to sacrifice the bigness and boldness in this bill. We will just pursue two paths and at some point they will join.”

THE VIEW FROM THE WEST WING — We ran this by the White House, which has been in close contact with Sinema as she tries to put together this deal, and a source agreed this is indeed a key dynamic to watch this week.

Their view is that a deal would be hard to land but not impossible. The main sticking points: They want more details on the pay-fors, more climate-related spending and — most important — an assurance that Sinema can produce 10 Republican votes.

The five Republicans in the Sinema group remain cautiously optimistic they can deliver them. During floor votes Thursday, those Republican senators started briefing their colleagues about the proposal. That effort will ramp up this week.

Unlike the previous negotiations that failed, the two sides are at least in the same ballpark when it comes to the size of the package. The current proposal from this bipartisan group is $579 billion in new infrastructure spending over five years (or $973 billion in total spending over five years or $1.2 trillion over eight years, which is the White House’s preferred time frame).

But how to pay for it all remains a struggle. The Senate group has a list of 10 to 12 ideas they are circulating. Some are sweeteners to bring in Republican senators, others are sweeteners they think Biden might favor, but there’s not much overlap. For example, Republicans had some hope that indexing the gas tax to inflation might be a loophole to Biden’s pledge not to raise taxes on Americans making under $400,000 a year. No dice, says the White House, which has ruled out the indexing idea. (Would Republicans be OK with indexing the corporate tax rate to inflation?)

Olivia Reingold noted that on Sunday Sen. SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) “listed three pay-fors: an infrastructure financing authority, repurposing unused Covid-19 relief funds, and a provision to ensure that drivers using electric vehicles pay their fair share for using the nation’s roads and bridges.” Two other ideas still in the mix, per a senior GOP aide: various user fee hikes and tax gap enforcement.

One way to think about why this deal is like the Triple Lindy of legislating for Biden: to pull it off, the two most conservative Democrats (Manchin and Sinema) need to deliver the most liberal senator (Sanders) in their caucus while the five most anti-Trump Republicans (Portman, Romney, Murkowski, Collins, and Cassidy) need to deliver five of their Trumpy colleagues. Sounds hard! Then again, the Triple Lindy was said to be “impossible” and Thornton Melon pulled it off.

— Related: “Why Bernie’s not sweating White House’s infrastructure dance with GOP,” by Laura Barrón-López and Natasha Korecki

Good Monday morning. Congress is fully back today, and June is going to be insane. Catch Playbook for the latest and drop us a line if you’ve got interesting buzz: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri.

BIDEN’S MONDAY — The president has already received the President’s Daily Brief this morning. Still to come at NATO headquarters in Brussels:

— 12:35 p.m. Central European Summer Time: Biden will meet with Estonian PM KAJA KALLAS, Latvian President EGILS LEVITS and Lithuanian President GITANAS NAUSĖDA.

— 1:15 p.m.: Biden will meet with NATO Secretary-General JENS STOLTENBERG.

— 1:25 p.m.: Biden and other NATO leaders will take a family photo.

— 1:30 p.m.: Biden will take part in the NATO Summit.

— 5 p.m.: Biden will hold a bilateral meeting with Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN.

— 6:50 p.m.: Biden will hold a press conference.

VP KAMALA HARRIS’ MONDAY:

— 10:05 a.m.: Harris will travel to Greenville, S.C.

— 12:15 p.m.: Harris will speak at a vaccination mobilization event at the Phillis Wheatley Community Center.

— 1:55 p.m.: Harris will take a tour of a pop-up vaccination site at the YMCA of Greenville.

— 3:50 p.m.: Harris will take part in a conversation about voting rights with community leaders.

— 5:10 p.m.: Harris will travel back to D.C.

THE SENATE will meet at 3 p.m., with votes on KETANJI BROWN JACKSON’S judicial nomination and to invoke cloture on LINA KHAN’S FTC nomination at 5:30 p.m.

THE HOUSE is in, with votes postponed until 6:30 p.m.

PLAYBOOK READS

DOJ DRIP DRIP

If reports that DONALD TRUMP’S Justice Department surreptitiously seized the data of reporters and politicians in a bid to root out leaks didn’t make your head explode, the latest from the NYT certainly will. Michael Schmidt and Charlie Savage reported Sunday night that Justice sought information from Apple on an account belonging to Trump’s own White House counsel, DON MCGAHN.

Here’s what congressional sources closely following this ongoing story were saying Sunday night:

— Nobody thinks these are isolated incidents. Clearly someone at Justice was targeting Trump’s perceived enemies, perhaps in a bid to crack down on leaks or for some other reason. Former A.G. BILL BARR and former Deputy A.G. ROD ROSENSTEIN have both denied they were aware of the activity on lawmakers, and it’s unclear who at DOJ was. We’re told A.G. MERRICK GARLAND is trying to quickly figure out what happened, but his department isn’t fully staffed up, complicating his efforts.

— We haven’t seen the last of this. Think about it this way: We’re just now learning about these secret requests for data that were made about three years ago because the gag orders on the tech companies, after having been renewed annually, just expired. That puts us in early 2018. So it’s not unreasonable to ask: Who else did they request information about in the last three years of Trump’s presidency that we don’t yet know about? Democrats expect many more names to surface.

— Lawmakers want answers yesterday. While DOJ inspector general MICHAEL HOROWITZ has indicated he will open an investigation into the matter, lawmakers expect his probe will take a while and they’re not keen on waiting. The pressure is on Garland to do something quickly and to share results with members of Congress. In a statement last week, House Judiciary Chair JERRY NADLER (D-N.Y.) said he would give the department a “very short window to make a clean break from the Trump era on this matter” and “provide a full accounting of these cases.”

— Garland meets the press. Today the AG will meet with leaders of the NYT, WaPo and CNN to discuss the issue as it relates to journalists’ information being seized, per the NYT.

CONGRESS

HOUSE RETURNS TO OMAR FIGHT, AUMF REPEAL — The House is back, and the big policy story of the week is its expected approval of Rep. BARBARA LEE’S (D-Calif.) repeal of the 2002 Authorization for Use of Military Force. (Read this Defense News story about the bill’s not-so-peachy Senate prospects.)

As for politics, look for House Republicans to turn the spotlight on Omar after her comments comparing the U.S. and Israel to the Taliban and Hamas.

Democrats expect House Republicans will try to force a vote to censure Omar or to remove her from the Foreign Relations Committee, as they did with Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.). But senior Democratic sources think they’ll be able to block either move. Pelosi called Omar a “valued member of our caucus” on CNN on Sunday, and other Democrats said they were satisfied with her clarification that she was not equalizing the two.

The GOP believes that any time spent on Omar is a win for Republicans: She’s a lightning rod for their base, and after weeks of stories about MTG they’re eager to point the finger elsewhere.

Pelosi has some lingering internal drama to deal with as well. The Squad and its allies are furious with Democrats they say gave the story life and made Omar a target of the right again. Rep. RASHIDA TLAIB (D-Mich.) said Pelosi’s leadership team should be “ashamed” of how they handled the situation. Expect more on this this week.

TREE-SPIKING — Senate Republicans this week are gearing up for a max pressure campaign against Biden’s choice to lead the Bureau of Land Management following reports about her onetime links to what they call “extreme environmental activism” or “eco-terrorism.” The AP on Friday reported new details about TRACY STONE-MANNING’S connection more than 30 years ago to a group that participated in spiking trees, where metal rods are jammed into tree trunks so they can’t be cut safely.

Stone-Manning, then a 23-year-old graduate student and activist, received immunity to testify against members of her group who were convicted. An administration official told the AP they were aware of her background in the criminal case before they tapped her for the job. But expect Republicans, particularly those from Western states such as Senate GOP Conference Chair JOHN BARRASSO (Wyo.), to talk a lot about the new revelations in the hopes she withdraws from consideration.

— Don’t miss: “‘Poor Chuck’: Schumer confronts midyear mess,” by Burgess Everett

POTUS ABROAD

UP NEXT FOR BIDEN — “President Biden set to make first NATO visit as President after meeting G7 allies,” by CNN’s Kate Sullivan: “Biden said Sunday he would reiterate the US’s commitment to NATO’s collective defense clause and communicate to allies that the US believes Article 5 is a ‘sacred obligation.’

“During Monday’s summit, NATO leaders are expected to discuss how to manage future threats and ‘ensure effective burden sharing,’ according to White House press secretary JEN PSAKI. The White House also said in a release on Sunday that during the summit, NATO members will announce a new ‘strategic concept’ that would guide the alliance’s approach going forward as the strategic environment changes, including threats from China and Russia.”

THE G-7 RECAP — “Biden heads to Brussels after global win,” by Ryan Heath: “Overall, the G-7 has delivered a significant win for Biden. While the leaders were panned for not doing enough to vaccinate the world and frequently fell short of consensus on the toughest issues, they’re definitely moving in the same direction, and other leaders fell over themselves to welcome Biden to their table.”

SPILLING THE TEA — “Biden says Queen Elizabeth asked about Putin and Xi,” Reuters: “U.S. President Joe Biden said Britain’s QUEEN ELIZABETH reminded him of his mother and that she had asked about China’s XI JINPING and Russia’s VLADIMIR PUTIN as they had tea at Windsor Castle on Sunday. Biden lavished praise on the 95-year-old British monarch after their private meeting which came at the conclusion of the Group of Seven leaders’ summit at which he called for concerted action on China and ahead of a meeting with Putin on Wednesday.

“‘I don’t think she’d be insulted but she reminded me of my mother, the look of her and just the generosity,’ Biden, 78, told reporters shortly before departing London. ‘She’s extremely gracious, that’s not surprising, but we had a great talk.’’”

POLITICS ROUNDUP

CROSS TO BEAR — “‘I didn’t take an oath to defend Donald Trump’: Rep. Tom Rice tests whether Republican voters can support a conservative who crossed Trump,” by WaPo’s Marianna Sotomayor in Myrtle Beach, S.C.: “[O]n Jan. 13, Rice shocked Washington and voters here in a district that includes coastal communities that thrive on tourism and rural areas focused on farming: He voted to impeach Trump on charges he incited the deadly Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. …

“Now that vote threatens to end his career as he faces several potential primary opponents who strongly support the former president. And that race will have a broader meaning for his party, serving as a test case for whether a solidly conservative lawmaker, long popular in his district and loyal to the party, can be cast out by GOP voters for the lone sin of crossing Trump.”

VOTING RIGHTS LATEST — “Texas Dems amp up voting rights pressure with D.C. blitz,” by Zach Montellaro: “Texas Democrats who killed a Republican elections bill with a dramatic state legislative walkout last month are heading to Washington this week to meet with Vice President Kamala Harris and pressure lawmakers on voting rights — part of a week of action that culminates in an Austin rally hosted by former Rep. BETO O’ROURKE.

“The push comes with Democrats’ expansive federal voting rights legislation on life support after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said he’ll vote against it. … The Texas legislators are expected to be on Capitol Hill on Tuesday for meetings with lawmakers from both chambers. It isn’t clear if that group of lawmakers will include Manchin or Sen. Krysten Sinema (D-Ariz.), another senator opposed to changing the filibuster. A person familiar with the Texas Democrats’ plans said neither senator was on the schedule as of Sunday, but they were trying to set up meetings.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

OUT WITH THE OLD — “Netanyahu, ‘King of Israel,’ Exits a Stage He Dominated,” by NYT’s David Halbfinger in Jerusalem: “[BENJAMIN] NETANYAHU — who was ousted as prime minister on Sunday — has been a deeply polarizing figure, governing from the right, branding adversaries as traitors, anti-Israel or anti-Semitic, obsessed with power and comfortable deploying street-fighter tactics to retain it. …

“As he relinquishes power for the first time in a dozen years and nearly a quarter-century to the day after he first became prime minister in 1996 — and defiantly vowing to return for a third act — Mr. Netanyahu, 71, leaves Israel in many ways far stronger than he found it. The country has a globally envied tech industry, fearsome military, cutting-edge intelligence and counterterrorism capabilities, diplomatic and trade relationships across Asia, Africa and Latin America that seemed unattainable a decade ago, and fast-knitting ties to Arab lands that were unfathomable even a year ago.”

IN WITH THE NEW — “Biden calls Bennett, world leaders congratulate new Israeli gov’t,” Jerusalem Post: “US President Joe Biden congratulated Prime Minister NAFTALI BENNETT on forming a government with Alternate Prime Minister YAIR LAPID on a phone call Sunday night after it was sworn in earlier that evening, and expressed his wishes to further strengthen ties between the two countries.

“On the call, Bennett thanked Biden for his congratulatory message and for his long standing commitment to Israel and its security. Bennett also thanked Biden for his support during Operation Guardian of the Walls, the most recent escalation between Israel and terror groups in the Gaza Strip, and that he considers him an ally. The two leaders emphasized the importance of the alliance between Israel and the United States, as well as their commitment to strengthening ties between the two countries and to maintaining the security of the State of Israel.”

FOR YOUR RADAR — “Exclusive: U.S. assessing reported leak at Chinese nuclear power facility,” by CNN’s Zachary Cohen: “The US government has spent the past week assessing a report of a leak at a Chinese nuclear power plant, after a French company that part owns and helps operate it warned of an ‘imminent radiological threat,’ according to US officials and documents reviewed by CNN.”

MEDIAWATCH

BEN SMITH NYT COLUMN: “Why The New Yorker’s Stars Didn’t Join Its Union”: “Writers for The New Yorker have been known to refer to the editor, DAVID REMNICK, as ‘Dad,’ so there was something a little illicit about their decision to gather without him back in 2018 at a Windsor Terrace apartment.

“Some 20 of the writers, many of them marquee names, were getting together to decide how to react to the surprise announcement that their less heralded colleagues — fact checkers, copy editors, web producers, social media editors — were forming a union and demanding raises. The writers discussed whether they should follow their junior colleagues into the NewsGuild, and whether the magazine treated writers fairly. … Under The New Yorker’s structure, even some of the best-known writers are considered ‘contractors,’ and their bosses had given them the impression that health insurance was not a possibility.”

Two other jaw-dropping nuggets from Smith’s column: 1) For decades “Dad” may have been illegally classifying full-time employees as contractors to avoid paying them any benefits and 2) the salaries of some employees at The New Yorker “remain under $60,000 after 20 years on the job.”

PLAYBOOKERS

IN MEMORIAM — “Christopher Sign, Birmingham TV anchor and former Alabama football player, dead in apparent suicide,” Alabama Media Group: “While a reporter and morning anchor at ABC affiliate KNXV-TV in Phoenix, Sign broke the story of the June 2016 secret tarmac meeting between former President Bill Clinton and then-Attorney General Loretta Lynch. Sign wrote a book about his experience called Secret on the Tarmac.”

SPOTTED: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) on an American Airlines flight from Dallas/Fort Worth to Newark on Sunday. Pic … Speaker Nancy Pelosi having lunch at Peacock Cafe on Sunday afternoon.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Brianna Manzelli is now comms director for Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah). She most recently was head of comms for the FAA and is a Senate Commerce alum.

— The Economic Innovation Group is adding Jennifer “DJ” Nordquist as an EVP and Scott Shewcraft as a VP of policy. Nordquist most recently was the World Bank Group executive director representing the U.S., and is a Trump White House alum. Shewcraft most recently was chief of staff to Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.).

— Lindsey Curnutte is now press secretary for Heritage Action for America. She most recently was comms director for Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.).

BIRTHWEEK (was Sunday): Bryce Bozadjian of Rokk Solutions

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Former President Donald Trump … House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer … Reps. Bob Gibbs (R-Ohio) and Jim Sensenbrenner (R-Wis.) … Brian Fallon of Demand Justice and Barracks Row Media (4-0) … State Department’s Allison Lombardo … Dan Schwerin … Tim Lineberger … former Rep. Billy Tauzin (R-La.) … Facebook’s Campbell Brown … Mack McLarty of McLarty Associates … Leonard Blavatnik … Northwestern Mutual’s Christopher Gahan … Amber Marchand of Hamilton Place Strategies … Regan Page … Danny Gaynor … Kristen Bartoloni … Julia Cohen … Pavel Khodorkovsky … Pamela Geller … Barclays’ John McFarlane … David Keller … Paige Esterkin … YouTube’s Alexandra Veitch … Annaliese Davis … Chamber of Commerce’s Sara Armstrong … Crystal Bowyer … CNN’s Pete Muntean … Bruce Rastetter … Ashley Mae Hunt … Wilson Center’s Ryan McKenna … Chris Bleak … Bill Wasserman of M+R … Shomik Sarkar … Mongolian President-elect Ukhnaagiin Khürelsükh … BP’s Josh Hicks … Aaron Williams … NPR’s Tom Gjelten … Chris Liddell-Westefeld … Carol Apelt … Brandon Hall … Kenan Block … Pat Proctor … Andrew Bair … Dee Simpson … Scot Ross … WaPo’s Robert Klemko

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected]. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.

Rachael Bade @rachaelmbade
Eugene Daniels @EugeneDaniels2
Ryan Lizza @RyanLizza
Tara Palmeri @tarapalmeri

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Rachael Bade is a 10-year veteran of the congressional press corps, where her stories illuminated the power struggles and personal dynamics animating the major policy clashes of Capitol Hill. She spent the past two years covering House Democrats’ oversight of the Trump Administration for The Washington Post, where she routinely broke news on the party’s attempts to hold the president accountable as well as the historic impeachment effort.

She is currently writing a book, “A Perfect Phone Call,” for HarperCollins’ William Morrow publishing house about how and why the move to oust Trump failed. Before joining the Post in early 2019, Rachael covered Congress for POLITICO, where she spent six years of her journalism career. From her vantage point on the Hill, she chronicled President Trump’s remaking of the GOP, churning out stories with behind-the-scenes details about the struggle between pro-Trump lawmakers and those fearful of the new direction of the party.

Rachael is a political analyst for CNN and has also appeared on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” ABC’s “This Week” and Fox News’ “Fox News Sunday.” A small-town, Ohio-native, she graduated from the University of Dayton with degrees in political science and communication and is a former classical ballet dancer.

Ryan Lizza is a Playbook Co-Author and the Chief Washington Correspondent for POLITICO. He covers campaigns, Congress, and the White House. Since arriving in Washington in 1998, Ryan has written about national politics, policy, and elections for Esquire, New York magazine, GQ, The Washington Post, The New Yorker, The New Republic, The New York Times, and The Atlantic.

Ryan, who is also a Senior Political Analyst for CNN, covered every presidential election since 2000 and the presidencies of Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump. His reporting on Obama won the White House Correspondents’ Association’s Aldo Beckman award for presidential news coverage, and Lizza’s reporting on the Arab Spring won the National Press Club’s Edwin M. Hood Award for Diplomatic Correspondence.

Ryan grew up in New York and is a graduate of the University of California, Berkeley.

Eugene Daniels is a Playbook author and White House correspondent, with a focus on Vice President Kamala Harris, First Lady Dr. Jill Biden, the Second Gentleman and emerging power players in Washington. Since joining POLITICO in 2018, he’s covered the midterms, the Democratic presidential primary and general election through print, video journalism and podcasts. Eugene will continue to leverage POLITICO’s many platforms as part of the Playbook team. During the country’s reckoning with race in 2020, Eugene moderated POLITICO’s Confronting Inequality Town Hall series that examined how inequities in policing, housing, healthcare, education and employment permeate and plague the United States. Prior to POLITICO, Eugene covered the 2016 primary, general election and national politics as a political reporter at Newsy. He began his career in local television in Colorado Springs and graduated from Colorado State University in 2012.

Tara Palmeri was the host and chief investigative reporter of two acclaimed Sony Music podcasts — “Broken: Seeking Justice” and “Power: The Maxwells.” She was also a White House Correspondent for ABC News. In 2016, she moved to Washington, D.C., to cover the Trump administration for POLITICO. She was also a CNN Political Analyst. Before that, she was a part of the team that launched POLITICO Europe in Brussels, where she covered European politics and wrote the weekly Playbook Plus column with Ryan Heath. She was also a CNBC contributor.

Tara’s work has taken her all over the world from North Korea to Afghanistan to a little strip of land on the Danube River called “Liberland.” She was even the inspiration for the tenacious reporter character in the roman a clef “Les Compromis” about mischief in halls of the European Parliament a la “House of Cards.”

Tara also reported for the New York Post’s “Page Six” and covered New York City Hall. She started her career as a news assistant for CNN and then went on to write the Washington Examiner’s “Yeas & Nays” column. She graduated summa cum laude from American University in 2008.

Source Article from https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2021/06/14/manchin-and-sinema-still-might-get-their-way-493235

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