“There are a lot of things that he would do in the context of escalation before he would get to nuclear weapons,” Ms. Haines said.
Russia-Ukraine War: Key Developments
On the ground. Russian troops have stormed the city of Sievierodonetsk in Ukraine’s east and converged in the city center, according to a local official. The fall of Sievierodonetsk would give President Vladimir V. Putin’s forces the last major city in the Luhansk province still in Ukrainian hands.
The White House, the Pentagon and the intelligence agencies are examining the implications of any potential Russian claim that it is conducting a nuclear test or the use by its forces of a relatively small, battlefield nuclear weapon to demonstrate its ability.
As Mr. Biden’s opinion article hinted, his advisers are quietly looking almost entirely at nonnuclear responses — most likely a combination of sanctions, diplomatic efforts and, if a military response is needed, conventional strikes — to any such demonstration of nuclear detonation.
The idea would be to “signal immediate de-escalation” followed by international condemnation, said one administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to provide insight into classified topics.
“If you respond in kind, you lose the moral high ground and the ability to harness a global coalition,” said Jon B. Wolfsthal, a nuclear expert who was on the National Security Council during the Obama administration.
Mr. Wolfsthal noted that in 2016, the Obama administration ran a war game in which participants agreed that a nonnuclear response to a Russian strike was the best option. Ms. Haines, then President Barack Obama’s deputy national security adviser, ran the simulation.
Scott D. Sagan, a specialist in nuclear strategy at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, called the development of a nonnuclear response an “extremely important” development.
Source Article from https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/01/us/politics/nuclear-arms-treaties.html
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