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Most other public polls conducted in Kentucky over the last 13 months showed the race moving in either direction within a single-digit margin — close but fluid. None showed anything close to a 17-point advantage for Mr. Beshear.

Private polling for other Republican committees, which Ms. McDaniel and her staff have access to, also depicted a much closer race. The Republican Governors Association’s survey showed Mr. Bevin leading Mr. Beshear by two points two weeks before the race, according to someone who saw the results. In the final week, the gap closed to dead even.

Republicans have given Mr. Trump credit for victories in every recent election where he campaigned for the Republican candidate, including the governors’ races in Louisiana and Mississippi. The R.N.C. also said it noticed, in the September special election for a North Carolina House seat, a marked improvement for the Republican candidate, Dan Bishop, in the area around Fayetteville, where Mr. Trump held an election eve rally. That county went Democratic in 2018 by more than four points. But Mr. Bishop won in September by 0.2 percentage points, which the R.N.C. said was higher than it had expected given historical precedent.

It is difficult to assess whether Mr. Trump deserves credit for closing the gap in these races — where just a few thousand votes has made the difference — given the many factors that can swing close elections. In heavily Democratic Fayette County, Kentucky, where Mr. Trump campaigned on Monday, Mr. Bevin trailed by 33 points, a larger margin of defeat than other Republicans in recent elections.

Republicans could simply be holding their noses and voting for candidates they are not in love with so their party does not lose. This phenomenon, known as “coming home,” is not reliable in campaigns but it is familiar to anyone who worked on Mr. Trump’s behalf in 2016.

During the final weeks of his campaign, Mr. Trump sent his running mate, Mike Pence, to round up votes for him around the country. Mr. Pence’s plea to voters was, “It’s time to come home.”