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Tropical Storm Cristobal’s outer bands, packing high winds and rain, arrived on the Louisiana coastline early Sunday, with its eye forecast to make landfall south of Houma after 1 p.m., but only with top winds of 50 mph.

The storm’s center should slowly move north to a point just east of St. Francisville by 1 a.m. Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasters continue to warn that, although the storm has not intensified, Cristobal continues to pose a significant threat for heavy rainfall, storm surge of as much as 6 feet above ground level outside of hurricane levees, and for tropical-storm-force winds. The Weather Prediction Center has listed the area east of Interstate 55 in Louisiana, stretching through south Mississippi as being at unusual high risk of flash flooding through Monday.

But Cristobal continues to be fairly disorganized, and is expected to stay that way until making landfall.

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“Cristobal continues to resemble a subtropical cyclone more than a tropical cyclone,” said Senior Hurricane Specialist Jack Beven in a 4 a.m. forecast discussion message. “The convection near the center remains limited, although it has become a little better organized during the past several hours.”

He said recent data from Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the radius of its maximum winds remains at or above 90 nautical miles from its center.

Where is Tropical Storm Cristobal?

At 7 a.m., Cristobal’s center was about 70 miles south of Grand Isle, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, still moving directly north at 12 mph.

At 5 a.m., New Orleans Lakefront Airport was seeing wind gusts as high as 38 mph, almost tropical storm strength, while Houma measured gusts of 24 mph.

Strengthening expected?

Forecasters don’t believe Cristobal will gain any additional strength before landfall, and it should drop below tropical storm strength by Monday morning.

“The broad nature of the cyclone and significant dry air entrainment is likely to prevent intensification before landfall, and the new intensity forecast holds the intensity constant at 45 knots (50 mph) until that time,” Beven said.

“Cristobal remains a broad and asymmetric storm,” he said. “Therefore, one should not focus on the exact forecast track, as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well away from the center.” 

Watches and warnings?

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for all of southeastern Louisiana, extending west to Intracoastal City in Vermilion Parish.

A storm surge warning is in effect for coastal areas from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Miss., and a storm surge watch is in effect from east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Mississippi. The Slidell NWS received reports Sunday morning of storm surge on shoreline roads in Waveland and Pass Christian, Miss.

What are the risks?

“The immediate concerns for our area continue to be heavy rain and surge,” said forecasters with the Slidell office of the National Weather Service in a morning forecast discussion message. “Wind impacts surely cannot be ruled out as well as some isolated tornadoes.”

All of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi remains under a flood watch through Tuesday morning. The biggest risk of heavy rain will be east of Interstate 55, where rainfall could total 8 inches, with isolated higher amounts. To the west, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected.

Forecasters have posted flood warnings for a number of locations on North Shore rivers, as the rainfall is likely to cause them to leave their banks by Monday. 

When is the next update?

The next advisory is expected at 10 a.m. from the National Hurricane Center.

Read the full 4 a.m. advisory.