“It looks like he doesn’t want the price of iPhones going up into Christmas,” Bass said on CNBC’s “Squawk Alley ” Tuesday. “The Chinese are going to read this as a key weakness.”
China meanwhile, has not publicly backed off. It announced last week that it would not resume buying U.S. agricultural products, despite assurances otherwise by Xi to Trump at the June G-20 summit. It also has retaliated with its own tariffs on U.S. goods and set off more worries about the trade war on Friday by letting its currency weaken.
John Rutledge, chief investment officer of global principal investment house Safanad, said the trade war is causing pain on both sides. In China, Rutledge said Xi is feeling pressure to show strength in the trade war, while Washington is grappling with mounting political pressure and costs to consumers.
But that can change quickly, Rutledge said, depending on which of Trump’s trade advisors have his ear at the moment.
“There’s a battle of the bands among advisors — this may be just a tick up as the rational group prevailed,” Rutledge said, referring to White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, whom he calls “market thinkers” in opposition to trade hawk and advisor Peter Navarro.
Still, Rutledge said its nearly impossible to predict the White House’s next move and investors should take this as “one day and one data point.”
“We shouldn’t extrapolate or draw a trend, since it might get revered,” Rutledge said.
The president’s top priorities — a strong stock market and a tough China trade deal — have been at odds. Uncertainty around the trade war has weighed on financial markets. Stocks saw their worst day of the year on Aug. 5 after China let its currency weaken below 7 yuan to the dollar and made its announcement about U.S. farm products.
“The White House is now delaying the tariffs and removing some items. Did some acronym called the SPX cause someone to blink?,” David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates, said in a tweet.
China’s Commerce Ministry said Vice Premier Liu He had a phone call with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lightizer and Mnuchin. Trade talks are set to continue in two weeks. According to Chinese news outlet CGTN, the call for the world’s two largest economies to meet again on trade came from Lighthizer, not China.
So far, the pain felt by the stock market has not been that exaggerated. At its low point for this sell-off, the S&P 500 was down only a little more than 6% from its high.
“These developments are modestly positive, especially compared to the recent torrent of negative news, but we caution against viewing the tariff delay as anything more than an attempt to partially shield the American consumer heading into the holiday season,” Isaac Boltansky of Compass Point Research wrote in a note to clients. “We continue to believe that a broad deal will not emerge prior to the 2020 election.”
Trump, himself, accused China last week of trying to wait out the 2020 election for a trade deal.
Source Article from https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/trump-just-blinked-giving-china-a-possible-edge-in-trade-war-jim-chanos-others-say.html
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