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“When you have a baseline of infections that are 40,000 per day and you have threats of increased test positivity in certain regions of the country, such as the Dakotas and Montana and places like that. … You don’t want to start off already with a baseline that’s so high,” he said.

He added that the concerns are heightened by the approaching fall and winter seasons, which will likely push people indoors where the virus can spread more easily.

Fauci said the U.S. will be in a “more precarious situation” in the fall and winter and if the country continues to report the current level of new cases everyday, it will put the U.S. at “a disadvantage right from the very beginning.” Over the past couple of weeks, Fauci and other top health officials have repeatedly warned that cases must continue to decline as the country approaches colder weather. Earlier this month, Fauci said daily new cases were “unacceptably high” this close to fall. 

Officials and public health specialists have expressed a few different concerns about why the fall and winter months might bring new challenges. First, colder weather is likely to push more people indoors for risky activities such as indoor dining.

Second, seasonal influenza could spread widely among the U.S. population, as it does in most years, straining health systems and diagnostic laboratories as the country tries to respond to two epidemics simultaneously.

And some scientists believe that the virus could be seasonal, similar to the flu. While it has continued to spread rapidly in the U.S. and elsewhere during the summer, some scientists are concerned it could begin to spread even more easily come November or December. 

Last week, forecasters from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington predicted that the total U.S. death toll could top 410,000 by Jan. 1 if the current mask wearing and social distancing trends continue. Dr. Christopher Murray, director of IHME, said one assumption baked into his team’s model is that the virus has a seasonal element.

“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States,” Murray said last week.