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The YouGov model crunches data from more than 100,000 interviews over seven days along with demographics, specific constituency circumstances and national statistics to come up with a projection.

It shows the election is now Johnson’s to lose.

According to the model, Johnson’s Conservatives would gain 47 seats – 44 of them from Labour, two from the Liberal Democrats and one from the Speaker’s old seat. Labour are on course to not take any new seats.

“Most seats changing hands are ones that Labour won in 2017 that are now set to be taken by the Conservatives,” YouGov said. “What happens in these constituencies is the most important dynamic in deciding whether Boris Johnson has a majority, and how large it ends up being.”

The Brexit Party are hurting the Conservatives more than Labour, according to the model. Independents are finding it difficult to pick up seats. The model does not point to Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab or Johnson being in danger of losing their seats.

The margins of error in the model put the Conservatives seat projection between 328 and 385, YouGov said, adding that there was still more than sufficient time for people to change their minds before Dec. 12 – the first Christmas election in nearly a century.

In late May 2017, just over a week before the June 8 election, YouGov using the model to project that then Prime Minister Theresa May would lose her majority.

The model, developed by Ben Lauderdale of the London School of Economics and Doug Rivers of Stanford University, was accurate: May did lose her majority, a failure that complicated Brexit and eventually destroyed her premiership.