Larry Hu, head of Greater China economics at Macquarie, said in a note Saturday that the trade tensions have a greater impact on sentiment than economic growth, which is more reliant on other factors.
“Therefore, a phase-1 trade deal could prevent things from getting worse by cancelling the new tariff, but could not make things much better,” Hu said.
It’s still unclear how and when the U.S. will roll back other tariffs, a condition for a phase-one deal that the Chinese side has firmly maintained. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said in a statement that the United States will keep 25% tariffs on about $250 billion of Chinese imports, along with 7.5% duties on roughly $120 billion of Chinese imports.
Both sides also still need to sign the text of an agreement, which Chinese officials said requires legal review and translation. Lighthizer said both countries hope to sign the deal in Washington in early January, and there would be no new tariffs as long as China negotiates in good faith.
Scott Kennedy, senior advisor and trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, pointed out Friday in an online article that this marks the “fifth instance during the U.S.-China trade dispute that a deal has been prematurely declared.”
“With only limited concessions, China has been able to preserve its mercantilist economic system and continue its discriminatory industrial policies at the expense of China’s trading partners and the global economy,” he said. “Trump could reverse course and renew tariffs, but Beijing has bought itself a likely respite from the daily uncertainty for at least a few months and perhaps for the remainder of Trump’s current term.”
Source Article from https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/16/us-and-china-reached-a-trade-agreement-but-key-details-still-unclear.html
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