Amid the many autopsies of of the failed summit in Hanoi, there’s been plenty of speculation about what’s next for U.S. efforts to pursue denuclearization on the Korean peninsula. Almost all of those reports focus exclusively on limiting nuclear arms. There’s good reason for that. Nuclear arms are by far the most dangerous threat Kim Jong Un’s regime poses. But looking at North Korea’s other capacities, specifically cyberattacks, yields important lessons for the future of U.S.-North Korea relations.
Since U.S. negotiations with North Korea began after the June 2018 Summit between President Trump and Kim in Singapore, North Korea has relentlessly kept up its cyberattacks against U.S. companies and those of our allies, even as it limited nuclear testing. Indeed, even as Trump met with Kim in Hanoi, North Korea continued to bombard U.S. firms with attacks.
So what can we learn from this?
First, North Korea may be interested in denuclearization and the economic benefits of sanctions relief because it has other weapons — including cyber and chemical weapons — that serve the regime’s interests, including raising funds, domestic propaganda, and limiting the influence of other states over its domestic affairs.
That reality also means any deal that Washington might eventually reach with Pyongyang is likely not going to eliminate all of North Korea’s capacity to launch attacks or threaten the U.S. and its allies. Although that forecloses the idea of a grand bargain of the sort that Trump and his advisers might be holding out for, it doesn’t mean the U.S. cannot make real progress on limiting North Korea’s capacity to launch a nuclear attack.
Second, the continued cyberattacks mean that for all of the good optics of handshakes and smiles, North Korea is still clearly an enemy. Washington must be careful not to promise close diplomatic ties as a reward in talks with Kim’s negotiators or in its presentation of talks to voters in the U.S.
Finally, the persistent use of cyberattacks, despite pursuit of a nuclear deal, means any deal on nuclear arms control must be seen as a stepping stone to future deals. That means Trump must not build a deal with Kim on personal agreements alone. The work he begins as president will necessarily extend well beyond his years in office.
Moving forward after a failed summit that hopefully served as a reset of expectations and a reality check, the Trump administration must not be blinded by an attempt to reach a deal on nuclear arms such that it overlooks the threats from North Korea’s other weapons, such as cyberwarfare or even conventional attacks. Unfortunately, it seems this is already the case, as Trump canceled planned military exercises with South Korea over the weekend.
A nuclear deal with North Korea would be great, and it ought to remain a priority for Trump, but it must be clear that it would be no panacea to U.S. difficulties with the country and should not be talked about as such. After all, a deal on denuclearization was never meant to bring wholesale change to North Korea. It was simply meant to eliminate the most serious threat posed by the country.
Source Article from https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/what-north-koreas-persistent-cyberattaks-mean-for-a-potential-future-deal-with-trump
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