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Pakistan’s downing of at least one Indian air force jet on Wednesday should not be viewed as a random crisis incident. Instead, it reflects a new period of escalating tension between the two nuclear powers.

The root of this tension is clear: Pakistan’s support for terrorist groups targeting India, and India’s increasing unwillingness to accept these attacks without military reprisal. Because Pakistan is equally unwilling to accept Indian retaliatory attacks, the escalation dynamics are set in place. While it’s likely that the current crisis, precipitated by a recent attack by Pakistani-supported terrorists on India, will blow over, we’re likely to see new military showdowns in the months ahead.

Again, however, the underlying problem here is that Pakistan won’t stop supporting terrorist attacks on Indian soil. Although recent former Pakistan army chief Raheel Sharif and the former head of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Naveed Mukhtar showed true leadership taking the fight to terrorists on their soil, powerful cabals of the mid-senior ranks of the security establishment are constantly acting to restrain these efforts. This is why, as on Wednesday, when Indian officials give their Pakistani counterparts evidence of terrorist activity, Pakistan’s response is muted.

This obviously fuels Indian political fury. And that fury fits naturally with the long-bubbling desire of Indian security officials to confront Pakistan. This fits with the interests of both nations’ leaders. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is approaching an election, has realist impulses in foreign policy, but his political base expects increasingly resolute action against Pakistani terrorism. And Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan cultivates Islamic extremist support while also — as with most of his predecessors — deferring to the military on security issues.

In short, the ingredients for tensions are clear and apparent and, short of fears over a nuclear war, the ingredients for detente are absent.