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Unlike the geopolitical-related oil surges during previous tense periods in the Middle East, the price now may not inflate as much as it may have because of the growth of U.S. oil output in the last decade. The U.S. is now the world’s top producer, pumping 12.9 million barrels a day.

Yergin said oil prices have been responding more to trade matters than geopolitics recently, and that could change with the approach of the signing of the phase one trade deal between the U.S. and China. Trade worries had been outweighing other factors before the U.S. and China signaled a deal was close at hand. The concern was that the trade war would hurt demand globally, and there is a better market for oil and other commodities if tensions remain at bay.

“Shale has changed the psychology of the world oil market,” he said. Growth in U.S. production has been rapid, with more than 1 million barrels added this year, but that growth could slow. The U.S. growth spurt has also helped mitigate the impact of the loss of oil output from both Iran and Venezuela, also under U.S. sanctions.

“I think we’re not going to see the kind of volumetric increases of the last few years. This year, we expect the U.S. will add about 400,000 to 450,000 barrels a day. Capital discipline is going to put a big cap on production of shale. The U.S.is still going to be a 13 million barrel a day plus producer. This production is not going away,” said Yergin.

The U.S. has changed the oil market, but it could still remain elevated because of uncertainty which may not go away for some time.

“There are times when the geopolitical risk premium is inflated and other times it’s nonexistent. It’s getting inflated again,” said Kilduff.

However, Ed Morse, Citigroup head of commodities research, says that could be temporary.

He said there could be attacks by Iran in the near-term but ultimately the situation could be bearish for the oil market if it ends in Iran and the U.S. ultimately negotiating a new deal on Iran’s nuclear program.

“Despite clear short-term oil market concerns, there could be bearish factors at work later in 2020, with the possibility that Iran and the US could find common purpose in working out a new agreement,” Morse wrote in a note. “The push and pull on politics in Iran have involved three different parties— the clerical establishment, elected officials in parliament and the administration, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and their Quds forces, whose leader has now been eliminated by US attacks. Of the three, the Quds forces have been the major target of US sanctions. They and the IRGC have been the one party least interested in a bilateral accord with the US.”

— CNBC’s Jason Gewirtz contributed to this story.